Watford vs Crawley

Prediction and result

Before kickoff, the model made Crawley favourites at 50% (Watford 27%, draw 23%). That rests on expected goals of 1.58 to 1.06 and 3 wins in Crawley's last 10 matches to 1 for Watford. It put over 2.5 goals at 47% and both teams scoring at 45%. Watford won 1-0, against the model's 50% for Crawley.