Watford vs Burnley

Prediction and result

Before kickoff, the model made Watford favourites at 52% (Burnley 26%, draw 22%). That rests on expected goals of 1.65 to 1.08 and 3 wins in Watford's last 10 matches to 0 for Burnley. Burnley lead the head-to-head 5-2, which keeps it from being more one-sided. It put over 2.5 goals at 49% and both teams scoring at 62%. Burnley won 4-0, against the model's 52% for Watford.

Key facts before the match

• Burnley have gone 10 matches without a win.
• They last met on 18 Apr 2025, when Burnley won 2-1.