Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax

Match preview

The model makes Ajax favourites at 80% (Sparta Rotterdam 9%, draw 11%). That rests on expected goals of 3.19 to 0.99, Ajax sitting 4th in the table to Sparta Rotterdam's 13th, 6 wins in Ajax's last 10 matches to 2 for Sparta Rotterdam and 7 wins from the last 10 meetings to 0. Bookmakers give Ajax about 63% once their margin is removed, so the model is more confident than the market. It puts over 2.5 goals at 77% and both teams scoring at 66%.

Key facts

• Over 2.5 goals came in 8 of Sparta Rotterdam's last 10 matches and 8 of Ajax's.
• Ajax scored in every one of their last 10 matches.
• Both teams scored in 7 of Sparta Rotterdam's last 10 matches and 8 of Ajax's.
• They last met on 14 Mar 2026, when Ajax won 4-0.