Spain vs Croatia

Prediction and result

Before kickoff, the model made Spain favourites at 61% (Croatia 19%, draw 20%). That rests on expected goals of 1.91 to 0.95, 9 wins in Spain's last 10 matches to 6 for Croatia and 5 wins from the last 9 meetings to 2. It put over 2.5 goals at 63% and both teams scoring at 51%. Spain won 4-1, as the model expected.

Key facts before the match

• Spain have won 8 matches in a row.
• They last met on 15 Jun 2024, when Spain won 3-0.