Southampton vs Stoke

Prediction and result

Before kickoff, the model made Southampton favourites at 49% (Stoke 27%, draw 24%). That rests on expected goals of 1.47 to 1.00 and 6 wins in Southampton's last 10 matches to 2 for Stoke. It put over 2.5 goals at 44% and both teams scoring at 49%. Southampton won 3-1, as the model expected.

Key facts before the match

• They last met on 31 Jan 2026, when Southampton won 2-0.