Sheffield Utd vs Derby

Prediction and result

Before kickoff, the model made Sheffield Utd favourites at 67% (Derby 15%, draw 18%). That rests on expected goals of 2.07 to 0.83, 4 wins in Sheffield Utd's last 10 matches to 1 for Derby and 8 wins from the last 10 meetings to 2. It put over 2.5 goals at 56% and both teams scoring at 51%. It ended 1-1, a draw the model had put at 18%.

Key facts before the match

• Derby have gone 7 matches without a win.
• They last met on 2 May 2026, when Sheffield Utd won 2-1.