Schalke vs Mainz

Prediction and result

Before kickoff, the model made Mainz favourites at 74% (Schalke 12%, draw 14%). That rests on expected goals of 2.81 to 1.07 and 6 wins in Mainz's last 10 matches to 4 for Schalke. Schalke lead the head-to-head 6-1, which keeps it from being more one-sided. It put over 2.5 goals at 71% and both teams scoring at 54%. Mainz won 1-0, as the model expected.

Key facts before the match

• They last met on 5 May 2023, when Schalke won 3-2.