RB Leipzig vs Mainz

Match preview

The model makes RB Leipzig favourites at 63% (Mainz 20%, draw 17%). That rests on expected goals of 2.57 to 1.40, RB Leipzig sitting 4th in the table to Mainz's 9th and 6 wins in RB Leipzig's last 10 matches to 4 for Mainz. Mainz lead the head-to-head 5-3, which keeps it from being more one-sided. It puts over 2.5 goals at 66% and both teams scoring at 55%.

Key facts

• Over 2.5 goals came in 7 of RB Leipzig's last 10 matches and 7 of Mainz's.
• RB Leipzig have scored in all of their last 5 home games.
• RB Leipzig average 3.6 goals a game at home.
• RB Leipzig kept 5 clean sheets in their last 10 matches.
• Mainz have lost 3 matches in a row.