Real Madrid vs Villarreal

Prediction and result

Before kickoff, the model made Real Madrid favourites at 77% (Villarreal 10%, draw 13%). That rests on expected goals of 2.73 to 0.88, 8 wins in Real Madrid's last 10 matches to 4 for Villarreal and 6 wins from the last 10 meetings to 2. It put over 2.5 goals at 72% and both teams scoring at 62%. Real Madrid won 1-0, as the model expected.

Key facts before the match

• They last met on 24 Jan 2026, when Real Madrid won 2-0.