Football · Copa del Rey · Spain
Poblense vs Ceuta
Thursday, 29 October 2026
Postponed. Source reports: POSTPONED.Match preview
The model makes Poblense favourites at 56% (Ceuta 22%, draw 22%). That rests on expected goals of 1.65 to 0.91 and 4 wins in Poblense's last 10 matches to 1 for Ceuta. Bookmakers give Poblense about 22% once their margin is removed, so the model is more confident than the market. It puts over 2.5 goals at 48% and both teams scoring at 52%.
Key facts
- Poblense have scored in all of their last 6 home games.
- Ceuta have lost 3 matches in a row.
- Ceuta concede 2.5 goals a game away from home.
Spain•Copa del Rey
Poblense(0)
W4d
D11d
W18d
L25d
W32d
L39d
L46d
L53d
W76d
D151d
Ceuta(0)
L4d
L11d
L19d
D25d
W33d
D39d
L48d
L54d
L60d
L68d
Thursday, 29 October 2026 at 21:00
Postponed. Source reports: POSTPONED.H2H: 0-0-0
Last 10 matches
1010
10/119/20
1.000.90
1.102.00
8/107/10
2/101/10
7/1010/10
4/107/10
3/100/10
2/103/10
6/1010/10
4/106/10
5/107/10
Home & away form · from last 10 matches
Poblense at homeCeuta away
64
4/60/4
1/61/4
1/63/4
1.170.75
0.672.50
6/63/4
1/60/4
0/60/4
3/64/4
1/63/4
3/60/4
0/61/4
2/63/4
3/63/4
Model Prediction
Expected Goals
Poblense: 1.65
Expected Goals
Ceuta: 0.91
Poblense
56%
Draw
22%
Ceuta
22%
Over 2.5: 48%
BTTS: 52%
Quality: medium
Market Odds (1X2)
Vig 8.6%
1 — Poblense
4.10▼
Implied 22%
Edge +33.5%
X
3.70▼
Implied 25%
Edge -2.9%
2 — Ceuta
1.75▲
Implied 53%
Edge -30.6%
Edge = model probability − market implied probability. Positive edge means the model rates that outcome higher than the bookmaker.
Team 1 Form
Poblense
25 Oct2026
Poblense vs Pena Deportiva
1-0W
18 Oct2026
Yeclano vs Poblense
2-2D
11 Oct2026
Poblense vs Castellon b
2-1W
04 Oct2026
Baleares vs Poblense
2-1L
27 Sept2026
Poblense vs Valencia b
1-0W
20 Sept2026
Alcoyano vs Poblense
2-0L
13 Sept2026
Poblense vs Castellonense
1-2L
06 Sept2026
la Nucia vs Poblense
1-0L
14 Aug2026
Poblense vs Baleares
1-0W
31 May2026
Poblense vs Aguilas fc
1-1D
Team 2 Form
Ceuta · # = league position now
25 Oct2026
Cadiz cf#18 vs Ceuta#21
3-1L
18 Oct2026
Ceuta#21 vs Oviedo#9
1-2L
10 Oct2026
Ceuta#21 vs Sabadell#10
1-2L
04 Oct2026
Castellon#1 vs Ceuta#21
1-1D
26 Sept2026
Ceuta#21 vs Real Sociedad b#20
3-1W
20 Sept2026
Ceuta#21 vs Valladolid#15
1-1D
11 Sept2026
Burgos cf#6 vs Ceuta#21
3-1L
05 Sept2026
Ceuta#21 vs Celta Vigo b#16
0-2L
30 Aug2026
Mallorca#7 vs Ceuta#21
3-0L
22 Aug2026
Ceuta#21 vs Las Palmas#14
0-2L
Head-to-Head
Last 10
No rows.
Upcoming matches
# = league position now
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