Football · Eredivisie · Netherlands
Nijmegen vs Groningen
Sunday, 25 October 2026
Upcoming. The scheduled start is still ahead. Match status has not been confirmed live.Match preview
The model makes Groningen favourites at 56% (Nijmegen 26%, draw 18%). That rests on expected goals of 2.34 to 1.57, Groningen sitting 7th in the table to Nijmegen's 12th and 5 wins in Groningen's last 10 matches to 2 for Nijmegen. Nijmegen lead the head-to-head 6-3, which keeps it from being more one-sided. Bookmakers give Groningen about 34% once their margin is removed, so the model is more confident than the market. It puts over 2.5 goals at 73% and both teams scoring at 70%.
Key facts
- Nijmegen are unbeaten in 5 matches.
- Over 2.5 goals came in 7 of Nijmegen's last 10 matches and 8 of Groningen's.
- Groningen scored in every one of their last 10 matches.
- Nijmegen have scored in all of their last 5 home games.
- Both teams scored in 8 of Nijmegen's last 10 matches and 8 of Groningen's.
Netherlands•Eredivisie
vs
Sunday, 25 October 2026 at 16:30
Upcoming. The scheduled start is still ahead. Match status has not been confirmed live.H2H: 6-1-3
Last 10 matches
1010
15/2123/19
1.502.30
2.101.90
8/1010/10
4/107/10
10/108/10
6/104/10
0/102/10
2/100/10
10/109/10
7/108/10
8/108/10
Home & away form · from last 10 matches
Nijmegen at homeGroningen away
54
0/52/4
4/51/4
1/51/4
1.402.75
1.802.00
5/54/4
2/52/4
0/52/4
5/54/4
3/51/4
0/50/4
0/50/4
3/53/4
5/54/4
Model Prediction
Expected Goals
Nijmegen: 1.57
Expected Goals
Groningen: 2.34
Nijmegen
26%
Draw
18%
Groningen
56%
Over 2.5: 73%
BTTS: 70%
Quality: high
Market Odds (1X2)
Vig 6.4%
1 — Nijmegen
2.25▲
Implied 42%
Edge -15.8%
X
3.90
Implied 24%
Edge -6.1%
2 — Groningen
2.75▼
Implied 34%
Edge +21.8%
Edge = model probability − market implied probability. Positive edge means the model rates that outcome higher than the bookmaker.
Team 1 Form
Nijmegen · # = league position now
22 Oct2026
Din. Zagreb#2 vs Nijmegen#12
2-4W
18 Oct2026
Nijmegen#12 vs Sittard#6
2-2D
15 Oct2026
Nijmegen#12 vs Levski Sofia#1
1-1D
10 Oct2026
Ajax#4 vs Nijmegen#12
1-1D
20 Sept2026
Nijmegen#12 vs G.a. Eagles#8
1-1D
17 Sept2026
Juventus#9 vs Nijmegen#12
5-0L
12 Sept2026
Cambuur#14 vs Nijmegen#12
3-0L
08 Sept2026
Nijmegen#12 vs Excelsior#10
2-2D
05 Sept2026
Nijmegen#12 vs Feyenoord#1
1-3L
29 Aug2026
Zwolle#15 vs Nijmegen#12
1-3W
Team 2 Form
Groningen · # = league position now
18 Oct2026
Groningen#7 vs Ajax#4
2-5L
11 Oct2026
Excelsior#10 vs Groningen#7
1-5W
18 Sept2026
Groningen#7 vs Zwolle#15
3-0W
12 Sept2026
G.a. Eagles#8 vs Groningen#7
1-1D
06 Sept2026
Groningen#7 vs Twente#5
2-2D
28 Aug2026
Groningen#7 vs Sittard#6
2-3L
23 Aug2026
Psv#3 vs Groningen#7
5-1L
16 Aug2026
Den Haag#16 vs Groningen#7
1-4W
09 Aug2026
Groningen#7 vs Utrecht#11
2-1W
01 Aug2026
Groningen#7 vs Valladolid#13
1-0W
Head-to-Head
Last 10 · # = league position now
10 May2026
Groningen#7 vs Nijmegen#12
2-1•
09 Nov2025
Nijmegen#12 vs Groningen#7
2-0•
19 Jul2025
Groningen#7 vs Nijmegen#12
1-2•
08 Feb2025
Groningen#7 vs Nijmegen#12
2-1•
03 Nov2024
Nijmegen#12 vs Groningen#7
6-0•
25 Apr2023
Groningen#7 vs Nijmegen#12
0-1•
26 Aug2022
Nijmegen#12 vs Groningen#7
1-1•
12 Mar2022
Groningen#7 vs Nijmegen#12
4-3•
19 Jan2022
Groningen#7 vs Nijmegen#12
1-2•
31 Oct2021
Nijmegen#12 vs Groningen#7
3-0•
Upcoming matches
# = league position now
Nijmegen
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