Football · Premiership · Scotland
Motherwell vs Hearts
Sunday, 25 October 2026
Upcoming. The scheduled start is still ahead. Match status has not been confirmed live.Match preview
The model makes Hearts favourites at 68% (Motherwell 16%, draw 16%). That rests on expected goals of 2.39 to 1.05, Hearts sitting 3rd in the table to Motherwell's 10th, 5 wins in Hearts's last 10 matches to 1 for Motherwell and 5 wins from the last 10 meetings to 1. Bookmakers give Hearts about 43% once their margin is removed, so the model is more confident than the market. It puts over 2.5 goals at 64% and both teams scoring at 57%.
Key facts
- Motherwell have lost 5 matches in a row.
- Over 2.5 goals came in 7 of Motherwell's last 10 matches and 7 of Hearts's.
- They last met on 9 May 2026, when it finished 1-1.
- Hearts concede 2.17 goals a game away from home.
Scotland•Premiership
vs
Sunday, 25 October 2026 at 17:00
Upcoming. The scheduled start is still ahead. Match status has not been confirmed live.H2H: 1-4-5
Last 10 matches
1010
11/2319/16
1.101.90
2.301.60
6/109/10
3/105/10
9/108/10
7/103/10
1/102/10
4/101/10
8/1010/10
7/107/10
5/107/10
Home & away form · from last 10 matches
Motherwell at homeHearts away
46
1/42/6
0/41/6
3/43/6
1.001.50
2.252.17
2/45/6
1/42/6
1/42/6
3/45/6
3/43/6
1/41/6
2/41/6
3/44/6
1/44/6
Model Prediction
Expected Goals
Motherwell: 1.05
Expected Goals
Hearts: 2.39
Motherwell
16%
Draw
16%
Hearts
68%
Over 2.5: 64%
BTTS: 57%
Quality: high
Market Odds (1X2)
Vig 7.6%
1 — Motherwell
3.00▼
Implied 31%
Edge -15.0%
X
3.60▼
Implied 26%
Edge -9.8%
2 — Hearts
2.15▲
Implied 43%
Edge +24.8%
Edge = model probability − market implied probability. Positive edge means the model rates that outcome higher than the bookmaker.
Team 1 Form
Motherwell · # = league position now
17 Oct2026
Kilmarnock#11 vs Motherwell#10
3-2L
11 Oct2026
Motherwell#10 vs Celtic#1
0-2L
19 Sept2026
Dundee fc#4 vs Motherwell#10
2-1L
15 Sept2026
Motherwell#10 vs Aberdeen#7
0-4L
05 Sept2026
Rangers#2 vs Motherwell#10
1-0L
02 Sept2026
Motherwell#10 vs Dundee Utd#6
3-0W
30 Aug2026
St. Mirren#8 vs Motherwell#10
3-3D
27 Aug2026
Freiburg#3 vs Motherwell#10
4-1L
20 Aug2026
Motherwell#10 vs Freiburg#3
1-3L
16 Aug2026
Stenhousemuir#1 vs Motherwell#10
1-0L
Team 2 Form
Hearts · # = league position now
22 Oct2026
Trabzonspor#4 vs Hearts#3
2-0L
18 Oct2026
Celtic#1 vs Hearts#3
7-1L
15 Oct2026
Hearts#3 vs Nordsjaelland#4
1-1D
10 Oct2026
Hearts#3 vs St. Mirren#8
5-0W
19 Sept2026
Kilmarnock#11 vs Hearts#3
1-1D
15 Sept2026
Falkirk#9 vs Hearts#3
2-1L
11 Sept2026
Stenhousemuir#1 vs Hearts#3
0-3W
06 Sept2026
Hearts#3 vs Dundee fc#4
2-1W
03 Sept2026
Hibernian#12 vs Hearts#3
1-3W
29 Aug2026
Hearts#3 vs st Johnstone#5
2-1W
Head-to-Head
Last 10 · # = league position now
09 May2026
Motherwell#10 vs Hearts#3
1-1•
11 Apr2026
Hearts#3 vs Motherwell#10
3-1•
29 Nov2025
Motherwell#10 vs Hearts#3
0-0•
23 Aug2025
Hearts#3 vs Motherwell#10
3-3•
10 May2025
Hearts#3 vs Motherwell#10
3-0•
12 Apr2025
Motherwell#10 vs Hearts#3
0-0•
02 Jan2025
Hearts#3 vs Motherwell#10
1-0•
25 Aug2024
Motherwell#10 vs Hearts#3
3-1•
17 Feb2024
Hearts#3 vs Motherwell#10
2-0•
11 Nov2023
Motherwell#10 vs Hearts#3
1-2•
Upcoming matches
# = league position now
Motherwell
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