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Football · A-League · Australia

Melbourne Victory vs Central Coast Mariners

Sunday, 01 November 2026

Match preview

The model makes Melbourne Victory favourites at 62% (Central Coast Mariners 19%, draw 19%). That rests on expected goals of 1.96 to 0.97 and 4 wins in Melbourne Victory's last 10 matches to 1 for Central Coast Mariners. Bookmakers give Melbourne Victory about 66% once their margin is removed, close to the model's view. It puts over 2.5 goals at 52% and both teams scoring at 50%.

Key facts

Central Coast Mariners have gone 8 matches without a win.
Melbourne Victory are 8th in A-League on 1 points from 2 games; Central Coast Mariners are 9th on 1.
They last met on 21 Mar 2026, when Melbourne Victory won 4-1.
Central Coast Mariners concede 2.29 goals a game away from home.

Australia•A-League

Melbourne Victory(3)

Rank 8 · 1 pts

L1d

D5d

L11d

W15d

D19d

D43d

W50d

W71d

D82d

W95d

4W · 4D · 2L

Central Coast Mariners(4)

Rank 9 · 1 pts

L4d

D12d

L19d

L33d

L47d

L50d

D99d

L187d

W193d

D202d

1W · 3D · 6L

Sunday, 01 November 2026 at 07:00

H2H: 3-3-4

Last 10 matches

1010

15/811/24

1.501.10

0.802.40

9/107/10

3/104/10

6/109/10

2/107/10

4/101/10

1/103/10

9/108/10

3/106/10

5/106/10

Home & away form · from last 10 matches

Melbourne Victory at homeCentral Coast Mariners away

1/21/7

0/25/7

2.000.71

0.502.29

2/24/7

1/21/7

1/20/7

1/26/7

0/24/7

1/21/7

0/23/7

1/23/7

Model Prediction

Expected Goals

Melbourne Victory: 1.96

Expected Goals

Central Coast Mariners: 0.97

Melbourne Victory

62%

Draw

19%

Central Coast Mariners

19%

Over 2.5: 52%

BTTS: 50%

Quality: high

Market Odds (1X2)

Vig 7.5%

1 — Melbourne Victory

1.40▼

Implied 66%

Edge -4.5%

4.90▲

Implied 19%

Edge +0.0%

2 — Central Coast Mariners

6.40▲

Implied 15%

Edge +4.5%

Edge = model probability − market implied probability. Positive edge means the model rates that outcome higher than the bookmaker.

Team 1 Form

Melbourne Victory · # = league position now

28 Oct2026

Persib Bandung#4 vs Melbourne Victory#8

2-0L

24 Oct2026

Melbourne Victory#8 vs Melbourne City#10

1-1D

18 Oct2026

Wellington Phoenix#1 vs Melbourne Victory#8

2-1L

14 Oct2026

Melbourne Victory#8 vs Seoul#1

3-0W

10 Oct2026

South Melbourne#4 vs Melbourne Victory#8

1-1D

16 Sept2026

Viettel#12 vs Melbourne Victory#8

1-1D

09 Sept2026

Sydney fc#4 vs Melbourne Victory#8

0-2W

19 Aug2026

Apia Leichhardt vs Melbourne Victory#8

0-1W

08 Aug2026

ws Wanderers#2 vs Melbourne Victory#8

1-1D

26 Jul2026

Kingborough Lions vs Melbourne Victory#8

0-4W

Team 2 Form

Central Coast Mariners · # = league position now

25 Oct2026

Wellington Phoenix#1 vs Central Coast Mariners#9

2-0L

17 Oct2026

Central Coast Mariners#9 vs Newcastle Jets#7

2-2D

10 Oct2026

Central Coast Mariners#9 vs Apia Leichhardt

2-4L

26 Sept2026

ws Wanderers#2 vs Central Coast Mariners#9

5-1L

12 Sept2026

Vanuatu United vs Central Coast Mariners#9

1-0L

09 Sept2026

Vanuatu United vs Central Coast Mariners#9

3-2L

22 Jul2026

Sydney Utd vs Central Coast Mariners#9

1-1D

25 Apr2026

Newcastle Jets#7 vs Central Coast Mariners#9

4-0L

19 Apr2026

Auckland fc#6 vs Central Coast Mariners#9

0-1W

10 Apr2026

Central Coast Mariners#9 vs Brisbane Roar#5

2-2D

Head-to-Head

Last 10 · # = league position now

21 Mar2026

Melbourne Victory#8 vs Central Coast Mariners#9

4-1•

01 Feb2026