SMO◦ANCE

Match Intelligence

Live API

Football · A-League · Australia

Adelaide United vs Melbourne Victory

Sunday, 08 November 2026

Match preview

The model makes Melbourne Victory favourites at 49% (Adelaide United 28%, draw 23%). That rests on expected goals of 1.52 to 1.06 and 5 wins from the last 10 meetings to 2. Bookmakers give Melbourne Victory about 37% once their margin is removed, so the model is more confident than the market. It puts over 2.5 goals at 52% and both teams scoring at 56%.

Key facts

Adelaide United are 11th in A-League on 0 points from 1 games; Melbourne Victory are 8th on 1.
They last met on 27 Feb 2026, when it finished 1-1.

Australia•A-League

Adelaide United(2)

Rank 11 · 0 pts

L4d

W14d

W26d

L32d

W42d

L79d

L91d

W101d

W107d

L167d

5W · 0D · 5L

Melbourne Victory(5)

Rank 8 · 1 pts

L1d

D5d

L11d

W15d

D19d

D43d

W50d

W71d

D82d

W95d

4W · 4D · 2L

Sunday, 08 November 2026 at 09:00

H2H: 2-3-5

Last 10 matches

1010

17/1315/8

1.701.50

1.300.80

7/109/10

5/103/10

7/106/10

5/102/10

3/104/10

3/101/10

10/109/10

7/103/10

4/105/10

Home & away form · from last 10 matches

Adelaide United at homeMelbourne Victory away

1/33/8

0/33/8

2/32/8

1.001.38

1.670.88

1/37/8

1/32/8

1/31/8

2/35/8

2/32/8

1/33/8

2/31/8

2/32/8

0/34/8

Model Prediction

Expected Goals

Adelaide United: 1.06

Expected Goals

Melbourne Victory: 1.52

Adelaide United

28%

Draw

23%

Melbourne Victory

49%

Over 2.5: 52%

BTTS: 56%

Quality: high

Market Odds (1X2)

Vig 5.5%

1 — Adelaide United

2.55▲

Implied 37%

Edge -9.2%

3.70▲

Implied 26%

Edge -2.6%

2 — Melbourne Victory

2.55▲

Implied 37%

Edge +11.8%

Edge = model probability − market implied probability. Positive edge means the model rates that outcome higher than the bookmaker.

Team 1 Form

Adelaide United · # = league position now

25 Oct2026

Sydney fc#4 vs Adelaide United#11

2-1L

15 Oct2026

Pathum United vs Adelaide United#11

1-2W

03 Oct2026

Perth Glory#12 vs Adelaide United#11

1-3W

27 Sept2026

Perth Glory#12 vs Adelaide United#11

2-0L

17 Sept2026

Adelaide United#11 vs Tai po

3-0W

11 Aug2026

Adelaide United#11 vs Cong an ha Noi#3

0-2L

30 Jul2026

South Melbourne#4 vs Adelaide United#11

2-1L

20 Jul2026

Playford Patriots vs Adelaide United#11

0-2W

14 Jul2026

Cove fc vs Adelaide United#11

0-5W

15 May2026

Adelaide United#11 vs Auckland fc#6

0-3L

Team 2 Form

Melbourne Victory · # = league position now

28 Oct2026

Persib Bandung#4 vs Melbourne Victory#8

2-0L

24 Oct2026

Melbourne Victory#8 vs Melbourne City#10

1-1D

18 Oct2026

Wellington Phoenix#1 vs Melbourne Victory#8

2-1L

14 Oct2026

Melbourne Victory#8 vs Seoul#1

3-0W

10 Oct2026

South Melbourne#4 vs Melbourne Victory#8

1-1D

16 Sept2026

Viettel#12 vs Melbourne Victory#8

1-1D

09 Sept2026

Sydney fc#4 vs Melbourne Victory#8

0-2W

19 Aug2026

Apia Leichhardt vs Melbourne Victory#8

0-1W

08 Aug2026

ws Wanderers#2 vs Melbourne Victory#8

1-1D

26 Jul2026

Kingborough Lions vs Melbourne Victory#8

0-4W

Head-to-Head

Last 10 · # = league position now

27 Feb2026