Italy vs Turkey

Prediction and result

Before kickoff, the model made Italy favourites at 54% (Turkey 24%, draw 22%). That rests on expected goals of 1.62 to 0.97 and 4 wins from the last 7 meetings to 0. It put over 2.5 goals at 46% and both teams scoring at 49%. Italy won 3-1, as the model expected.

Key facts before the match

• Turkey have lost 3 matches in a row.
• They last met on 28 Sept 2026, when Italy won 4-1.