Derby vs Wrexham

Prediction and result

Before kickoff, the model made Wrexham favourites at 54% (Derby 23%, draw 23%). That rests on expected goals of 1.59 to 0.93. It put over 2.5 goals at 51% and both teams scoring at 60%. It ended 1-1, a draw the model had put at 23%.

Key facts before the match

• They last met on 4 Jan 2026, when Wrexham won 2-1.