Derby vs West Brom

Prediction and result

Before kickoff, the model made West Brom favourites at 76% (Derby 10%, draw 14%). That rests on expected goals of 2.55 to 0.81 and 7 wins in West Brom's last 10 matches to 2 for Derby. Derby lead the head-to-head 5-1, which keeps it from being more one-sided. It put over 2.5 goals at 60% and both teams scoring at 60%. West Brom won 1-0, as the model expected.

Key facts before the match

• They last met on 23 Jan 2026, when it finished 1-1.
• Only 2 of the last 10 meetings had three or more goals.