Derby vs Birmingham

Prediction and result

Before kickoff, the model made Birmingham favourites at 58% (Derby 21%, draw 21%). That rests on expected goals of 1.75 to 0.95. Derby lead the head-to-head 5-2, which keeps it from being more one-sided. It put over 2.5 goals at 55% and both teams scoring at 54%. Birmingham won 2-1, as the model expected.

Key facts before the match

• They last met on 21 Mar 2026, when Derby won 1-0.