Football · Serie A · Italy
AC Milan vs Bologna
Wednesday, 28 October 2026
Upcoming. The scheduled start is still ahead. Match status has not been confirmed live.Match preview
The model makes AC Milan favourites at 80% (Bologna 6%, draw 14%). That rests on expected goals of 2.21 to 0.40, AC Milan sitting 4th in the table to Bologna's 15th, 5 wins in AC Milan's last 10 matches to 2 for Bologna and 5 wins from the last 10 meetings to 2. Bookmakers give AC Milan about 59% once their margin is removed, so the model is more confident than the market. It puts over 2.5 goals at 54% and both teams scoring at 41%.
Key facts
- Bologna failed to score in 3 of their last 4 away games.
- They last met on 3 Feb 2026, when AC Milan won 3-0.
Italy•Serie A
vs
Wednesday, 28 October 2026 at 20:30
Upcoming. The scheduled start is still ahead. Match status has not been confirmed live.H2H: 5-3-2
Last 10 matches
1010
18/1210/16
1.801.00
1.201.60
8/106/10
6/103/10
7/1010/10
4/103/10
3/100/10
2/104/10
10/106/10
6/105/10
5/106/10
Home & away form · from last 10 matches
ac Milan at homeBologna away
44
3/41/4
0/40/4
1/43/4
2.000.50
1.001.00
3/41/4
3/41/4
2/40/4
2/44/4
2/40/4
2/40/4
1/43/4
2/41/4
1/41/4
Model Prediction
Expected Goals
ac Milan: 2.21
Expected Goals
Bologna: 0.4
ac Milan
80%
Draw
14%
Bologna
6%
Over 2.5: 54%
BTTS: 41%
Quality: high
Market Odds (1X2)
Vig 5.4%
1 — AC Milan
1.60▲
Implied 59%
Edge +20.7%
X
4.10▼
Implied 23%
Edge -9.1%
2 — Bologna
5.40▼
Implied 18%
Edge -11.6%
Edge = model probability − market implied probability. Positive edge means the model rates that outcome higher than the bookmaker.
Team 1 Form
ac Milan · # = league position now
22 Oct2026
Bournemouth#15 vs ac Milan#4
3-0L
18 Oct2026
ac Milan#4 vs Atalanta#11
3-2W
15 Oct2026
Salzburg#2 vs ac Milan#4
0-4W
11 Oct2026
Sassuolo#13 vs ac Milan#4
1-1D
20 Sept2026
ac Milan#4 vs Lecce#12
3-0W
16 Sept2026
ac Milan#4 vs Benfica#2
0-2L
12 Sept2026
Lazio#2 vs ac Milan#4
2-2D
06 Sept2026
Juventus#8 vs ac Milan#4
1-1D
28 Aug2026
ac Milan#4 vs Venezia#20
2-0W
23 Aug2026
Torino#10 vs ac Milan#4
1-2W
Team 2 Form
Bologna · # = league position now
17 Oct2026
Bologna#15 vs Inter#1
1-3L
11 Oct2026
Lecce#12 vs Bologna#15
1-2W
19 Sept2026
Bologna#15 vs Torino#10
1-1D
13 Sept2026
Napoli#9 vs Bologna#15
1-0L
06 Sept2026
Bologna#15 vs Sassuolo#13
2-2D
31 Aug2026
Atalanta#11 vs Bologna#15
1-0L
24 Aug2026
Bologna#15 vs Lazio#2
0-1L
15 Aug2026
Brighton#3 vs Bologna#15
1-0L
08 Aug2026
Bologna#15 vs Pisa#3
1-4L
01 Aug2026
Bologna#15 vs Cambuur#14
3-1W
Head-to-Head
Last 10 · # = league position now
03 Feb2026
Bologna#15 vs ac Milan#4
0-3•
14 Sept2025
ac Milan#4 vs Bologna#15
1-0•
14 May2025
ac Milan#4 vs Bologna#15
0-1•
09 May2025
ac Milan#4 vs Bologna#15
3-1•
27 Feb2025
Bologna#15 vs ac Milan#4
2-1•
27 Jan2024
ac Milan#4 vs Bologna#15
2-2•
21 Aug2023
Bologna#15 vs ac Milan#4
0-2•
15 Apr2023
Bologna#15 vs ac Milan#4
1-1•
27 Aug2022
ac Milan#4 vs Bologna#15
2-0•
04 Apr2022
ac Milan#4 vs Bologna#15
0-0•
Upcoming matches
# = league position now
ac Milan
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