Basketball · WNBA · Usa
Phoenix Mercury W vs Las Vegas Aces W
Friday, 25 September 2026
Upcoming. The scheduled start is still ahead. Match status has not been confirmed live.Phoenix Mercury W vs Las Vegas Aces W in WNBA (Basketball) on Friday, 25 September 2026. See the head-to-head record, recent form and odds. Predictions and stats update daily.
Usa • WNBA
Phoenix Mercury W vs Las Vegas Aces W
25 Sept • 05:00
Upcoming. The scheduled start is still ahead. Match status has not been confirmed live.
Predicted Winner
Las Vegas Aces W
74%to win
by ~7.4 pts vs Phoenix Mercu…
Projected Total
175.9pts
84.2 – 91.6
no market line
Halftime Proj
91.1pts
44.4 – 46.7
model projection
Quarter Scores
projected| Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phoen… | 20.9 | 23.5 | 20.6 | 19.3 |
| Las V… | 24.9 | 21.8 | 22.9 | 22.1 |
| Total | 45.8 | 45.3 | 43.5 | 41.4 |
from last 5+5 games
Phoenix Mercury W
Last 10: 4–6 (40%)
PPG: 86.4 — Allowed: 87.6 — Pace: 174
Las Vegas Aces W
Last 10: 8–2 (80%)
PPG: 92.1 — Allowed: 80.3 — Pace: 172.4
Phoenix Mercury W Form
Phoenix Mercury W
W2d
L5d
W6d
W25d
L27d
L29d
L32d
L38d
W43d
L46d
Q:19-2624-2118-2126-18
Q:19-2437-2512-1519-18
Q:26-2024-2319-2522-26
Q:27-1731-1830-1413-20
Q:18-2019-2020-1316-27
Las Vegas Aces W Form
Las Vegas Aces W
W1d
W3d
W6d
W26d
W31d
W34d
L36d
L39d
W41d
W43d
Q:24-1118-2223-1824-28
Q:29-1823-2524-2122-13
Q:13-2521-2729-3314-29
Q:27-1729-2218-1619-18
Q:22-2517-1818-2321-22
Head-to-Head
Last 10
Q:29-928-1322-1427-22
Q:28-2421-2115-2312-18
Q:21-2714-2910-2721-16
Q:21-3017-2424-2224-21
Q:23-2620-2916-2129-14
Head-to-head summary
10 meetings — Phoenix Mercury W 1 / Las Vegas Aces W 9. Average total: 167.4.
Model output
{
"expected_points": {
"team_1": 84.2,
"team_2": 91.6,
"total": 175.9
},
"win_probability": {
"team_1": 26,
"team_2": 74
},
"form": {
"team_1": {
"played": 10,
"wins": 4,
"losses": 6,
"win_rate": 0.4,
"avg_pf": 86.4,
"avg_pa": 87.6,
"w_avg_pf": 86.7,
"w_avg_pa": 87.1,
"pace": 174,
"blowout_rate": 0.2
},
"team_2": {
"played": 10,
"wins": 8,
"losses": 2,
"win_rate": 0.8,
"avg_pf": 92.1,
"avg_pa": 80.3,
"w_avg_pf": 93,
"w_avg_pa": 79.9,
"pace": 172.4,
"blowout_rate": 0.5
}
},
"h2h_summary": {
"considered": 10,
"t1_wins": 1,
"t2_wins": 9,
"t1_win_rate": 0.1,
"avg_total": 167.4
},
"confidence": 93,
"winner": {
"team": "Las Vegas Aces W",
"probability": 74,
"margin_pts": 7.4,
"opponent": "Phoenix Mercury W",
"opponent_probability": 26
},
"total_points": {
"projected_total": 175.9,
"team_1_proj": 84.2,
"team_2_proj": 91.6,
"market": null
},
"halftime": {
"team_1": 44.4,
"team_2": 46.7,
"total": 91.1,
"source": "projected_from_form"
},
"quarter_scores": null,
"quarter_prediction": {
"home": [
20.9,
23.5,
20.6,
19.3
],
"away": [
24.9,
21.8,
22.9,
22.1
],
"per_quarter_total": [
45.8,
45.3,
43.5,
41.4
],
"halftime": {
"home": 44.4,
"away": 46.7,
"total": 91.1
},
"source": "form",
"t1_samples": 5,
"t2_samples": 5,
"t1_fractions": {
"q1": 0.248,
"q2": 0.279,
"q3": 0.245,
"q4": 0.229,
"samples": 5
},
"t2_fractions": {
"q1": 0.272,
"q2": 0.238,
"q3": 0.25,
"q4": 0.241,
"samples": 5
}
},
"predictions": {
"safe": {
"market": "moneyline",
"pick": "Las Vegas Aces W to win",
"team": "Las Vegas Aces W",
"win_prob": 74,
"confidence": 93,
"reason": "Projected margin ~7 pts; form 80% vs 40% (last 10/10); H2H 90% over last 10"
},
"high_risk": {
"market": "total points (Over)",
"pick": "Over (projected 176)",
"projected": 175.9,
"confidence": 93,
"reason": "Combined pace 173.2 > league baseline."
}
},
"model_version": "v2-2026-05-basketball"
}Full match data
{
"sport": "basketball",
"league": "WNBA",
"country": "Usa",
"match": "Phoenix Mercury W vs Las Vegas Aces W",
"date": "2026-09-25",
"time": "05:00",
"status": null,
"score": null,
"quarters": null,
"match_stats": null,
"team_1": {
"name": "Phoenix Mercury W",
"last_10_matches": [
{
"date": "22.09.26",
"home": "Phoenix Mercury W",
"away": "Dallas Wings W",
"score": "87-86",
"home_points": 87,
"away_points": 86,
"total_points": 173,
"home_won": true,
"quarters": {
"home": [
19,
24,
18,
26
],
"away": [
26,
21,
21,
18
]
}
},
{
"date": "19.09.26",
"home": "Dallas Wings W",
"away": "Phoenix Mercury W",
"score": "87-82",
"home_points": 87,
"away_points": 82,
"total_points": 169,
"home_won": true,
"quarters": {
"home": [
19,
37,
12,
19
],
"away": [
24,
25,
15,
18
]
}
},
{
"date": "18.09.26",
"home": "Portland Fire W",
"away": "Phoenix Mercury W",
"score": "91-94",
"home_points": 91,
"away_points": 94,
"total_points": 185,
"home_won": false,
"quarters": {
"home": [
26,
24,
19,
22
],
"away": [
20,
23,
25,
26
]
}
},
{
"date": "30.08.26",
"home": "Phoenix Mercury W",
"away": "Toronto Tempo W",
"score": "101-69",
"home_points": 101,
"away_points": 69,
"total_points": 170,
"home_won": true,
"quarters": {
"home": [
27,
31,
30,
13
],
"away": [
17,
18,
14,
20
]
}
},
{
"date": "28.08.26",
"home": "Phoenix Mercury W",
"away": "Washington Mystics W",
"score": "73-80",
"home_points": 73,
"away_points": 80,
"total_points": 153,
"home_won": false,
"quarters": {
"home": [
18,
19,
20,
16
],
"away": [
20,
20,
13,
27
]
}
},
{
"date": "26.08.26",
"home": "Phoenix Mercury W",
"away": "Washington Mystics W",
"score": "84-94",
"home_points": 84,
"away_points": 94,
"total_points": 178,
"home_won": false,
"quarters": null
},
{
"date": "23.08.26",
"home": "Phoenix Mercury W",
"away": "Atlanta Dream W",
"score": "89-99",
"home_points": 89,
"away_points": 99,
"total_points": 188,
"home_won": false,
"quarters": null
},
{
"date": "17.08.26",
"home": "Phoenix Mercury W",
"away": "Portland Fire W",
"score": "85-88",
"home_points": 85,
"away_points": 88,
"total_points": 173,
"home_won": false,
"quarters": null
},
{
"date": "12.08.26",
"home": "Los Angeles Sparks W",
"away": "Phoenix Mercury W",
"score": "87-94",
"home_points": 87,
"away_points": 94,
"total_points": 181,
"home_won": false,
"quarters": null
},
{
"date": "09.08.26",
"home": "Washington Mystics W",
"away": "Phoenix Mercury W",
"score": "95-75",
"home_points": 95,
"away_points": 75,
"total_points": 170,
"home_won": true,
"quarters": null
}
]
},
"team_2": {
"name": "Las Vegas Aces W",
"last_10_matches": [
{
"date": "23.09.26",
"home": "Las Vegas Aces W",
"away": "Los Angeles Sparks W",
"score": "89-79",
"home_points": 89,
"away_points": 79,
"total_points": 168,
"home_won": true,
"quarters": {
"home": [
24,
18,
23,
24
],
"away": [
11,
22,
18,
28
]
}
},
{
"date": "21.09.26",
"home": "Las Vegas Aces W",
"away": "Seattle Storm W",
"score": "98-77",
"home_points": 98,
"away_points": 77,
"total_points": 175,
"home_won": true,
"quarters": {
"home": [
29,
23,
24,
22
],
"away": [
18,
25,
21,
13
]
}
},
{
"date": "18.09.26",
"home": "Seattle Storm W",
"away": "Las Vegas Aces W",
"score": "77-114",
"home_points": 77,
"away_points": 114,
"total_points": 191,
"home_won": false,
"quarters": {
"home": [
13,
21,
29,
14
],
"away": [
25,
27,
33,
29
]
}
},
{
"date": "29.08.26",
"home": "Las Vegas Aces W",
"away": "Toronto Tempo W",
"score": "93-73",
"home_points": 93,
"away_points": 73,
"total_points": 166,
"home_won": true,
"quarters": {
"home": [
27,
29,
18,
19
],
"away": [
17,
22,
16,
18
]
}
},
{
"date": "24.08.26",
"home": "Toronto Tempo W",
"away": "Las Vegas Aces W",
"score": "78-88",
"home_points": 78,
"away_points": 88,
"total_points": 166,
"home_won": false,
"quarters": {
"home": [
22,
17,
18,
21
],
"away": [
25,
18,
23,
22
]
}
},
{
"date": "21.08.26",
"home": "Las Vegas Aces W",
"away": "Connecticut Sun W",
"score": "101-78",
"home_points": 101,
"away_points": 78,
"total_points": 179,
"home_won": true,
"quarters": null
},
{
"date": "19.08.26",
"home": "Las Vegas Aces W",
"away": "Atlanta Dream W",
"score": "82-97",
"home_points": 82,
"away_points": 97,
"total_points": 179,
"home_won": false,
"quarters": null
},
{
"date": "16.08.26",
"home": "Las Vegas Aces W",
"away": "Minnesota Lynx W",
"score": "87-92",
"home_points": 87,
"away_points": 92,
"total_points": 179,
"home_won": false,
"quarters": null
},
{
"date": "14.08.26",
"home": "Las Vegas Aces W",
"away": "Washington Mystics W",
"score": "83-76",
"home_points": 83,
"away_points": 76,
"total_points": 159,
"home_won": true,
"quarters": null
},
{
"date": "12.08.26",
"home": "Las Vegas Aces W",
"away": "Washington Mystics W",
"score": "86-76",
"home_points": 86,
"away_points": 76,
"total_points": 162,
"home_won": true,
"quarters": null
}
]
},
"head_to_head": {
"last_10_matches": [
{
"date": "12.07.26",
"home": "Las Vegas Aces W",
"away": "Phoenix Mercury W",
"score": "106-58",
"home_points": 106,
"away_points": 58,
"total_points": 164,
"home_won": true,
"quarters": {
"home": [
29,
28,
22,
27
],
"away": [
9,
13,
14,
22
]
}
},
{
"date": "18.06.26",
"home": "Phoenix Mercury W",
"away": "Las Vegas Aces W",
"score": "76-86",
"home_points": 76,
"away_points": 86,
"total_points": 162,
"home_won": false,
"quarters": {
"home": [
28,
21,
15,
12
],
"away": [
24,
21,
23,
18
]
}
},
{
"date": "09.05.26",
"home": "Las Vegas Aces W",
"away": "Phoenix Mercury W",
"score": "66-99",
"home_points": 66,
"away_points": 99,
"total_points": 165,
"home_won": false,
"quarters": {
"home": [
21,
14,
10,
21
],
"away": [
27,
29,
27,
16
]
}
},
{
"date": "11.10.25",
"home": "Phoenix Mercury W",
"away": "Las Vegas Aces W",
"score": "86-97",
"home_points": 86,
"away_points": 97,
"total_points": 183,
"home_won": false,
"quarters": {
"home": [
21,
17,
24,
24
],
"away": [
30,
24,
22,
21
]
}
},
{
"date": "09.10.25",
"home": "Phoenix Mercury W",
"away": "Las Vegas Aces W",
"score": "88-90",
"home_points": 88,
"away_points": 90,
"total_points": 178,
"home_won": false,
"quarters": {
"home": [
23,
20,
16,
29
],
"away": [
26,
29,
21,
14
]
}
},
{
"date": "05.10.25",
"home": "Las Vegas Aces W",
"away": "Phoenix Mercury W",
"score": "91-78",
"home_points": 91,
"away_points": 78,
"total_points": 169,
"home_won": true,
"quarters": null
},
{
"date": "04.10.25",
"home": "Las Vegas Aces W",
"away": "Phoenix Mercury W",
"score": "89-86",
"home_points": 89,
"away_points": 86,
"total_points": 175,
"home_won": true,
"quarters": null
},
{
"date": "22.08.25",
"home": "Las Vegas Aces W",
"away": "Phoenix Mercury W",
"score": "83-61",
"home_points": 83,
"away_points": 61,
"total_points": 144,
"home_won": true,
"quarters": null
},
{
"date": "16.08.25",
"home": "Phoenix Mercury W",
"away": "Las Vegas Aces W",
"score": "83-86",
"home_points": 83,
"away_points": 86,
"total_points": 169,
"home_won": false,
"quarters": null
},
{
"date": "30.06.25",
"home": "Phoenix Mercury W",
"away": "Las Vegas Aces W",
"score": "81-84",
"home_points": 81,
"away_points": 84,
"total_points": 165,
"home_won": false,
"quarters": null
}
]
},
"odds": {
"match_winner": {
"home": null,
"away": null,
"vig_pct": null
}
},
"analysis": {
"expected_points": {
"team_1": 84.2,
"team_2": 91.6,
"total": 175.9
},
"win_probability": {
"team_1": 26,
"team_2": 74
},
"form": {
"team_1": {
"played": 10,
"wins": 4,
"losses": 6,
"win_rate": 0.4,
"avg_pf": 86.4,
"avg_pa": 87.6,
"w_avg_pf": 86.7,
"w_avg_pa": 87.1,
"pace": 174,
"blowout_rate": 0.2
},
"team_2": {
"played": 10,
"wins": 8,
"losses": 2,
"win_rate": 0.8,
"avg_pf": 92.1,
"avg_pa": 80.3,
"w_avg_pf": 93,
"w_avg_pa": 79.9,
"pace": 172.4,
"blowout_rate": 0.5
}
},
"h2h_summary": {
"considered": 10,
"t1_wins": 1,
"t2_wins": 9,
"t1_win_rate": 0.1,
"avg_total": 167.4
},
"confidence": 93,
"winner": {
"team": "Las Vegas Aces W",
"probability": 74,
"margin_pts": 7.4,
"opponent": "Phoenix Mercury W",
"opponent_probability": 26
},
"total_points": {
"projected_total": 175.9,
"team_1_proj": 84.2,
"team_2_proj": 91.6,
"market": null
},
"halftime": {
"team_1": 44.4,
"team_2": 46.7,
"total": 91.1,
"source": "projected_from_form"
},
"quarter_scores": null,
"quarter_prediction": {
"home": [
20.9,
23.5,
20.6,
19.3
],
"away": [
24.9,
21.8,
22.9,
22.1
],
"per_quarter_total": [
45.8,
45.3,
43.5,
41.4
],
"halftime": {
"home": 44.4,
"away": 46.7,
"total": 91.1
},
"source": "form",
"t1_samples": 5,
"t2_samples": 5,
"t1_fractions": {
"q1": 0.248,
"q2": 0.279,
"q3": 0.245,
"q4": 0.229,
"samples": 5
},
"t2_fractions": {
"q1": 0.272,
"q2": 0.238,
"q3": 0.25,
"q4": 0.241,
"samples": 5
}
},
"predictions": {
"safe": {
"market": "moneyline",
"pick": "Las Vegas Aces W to win",
"team": "Las Vegas Aces W",
"win_prob": 74,
"confidence": 93,
"reason": "Projected margin ~7 pts; form 80% vs 40% (last 10/10); H2H 90% over last 10"
},
"high_risk": {
"market": "total points (Over)",
"pick": "Over (projected 176)",
"projected": 175.9,
"confidence": 93,
"reason": "Combined pace 173.2 > league baseline."
}
},
"model_version": "v2-2026-05-basketball"
}
}Prediction alerts
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