Basketball · WNBA · Usa

Phoenix Mercury W vs Las Vegas Aces W

Friday, 25 September 2026

Upcoming. The scheduled start is still ahead. Match status has not been confirmed live.

Phoenix Mercury W vs Las Vegas Aces W in WNBA (Basketball) on Friday, 25 September 2026. See the head-to-head record, recent form and odds. Predictions and stats update daily.

Usa • WNBA
Phoenix Mercury W vs Las Vegas Aces W
25 Sept • 05:00
Upcoming. The scheduled start is still ahead. Match status has not been confirmed live.
Predicted Winner
Las Vegas Aces W
74%to win
by ~7.4 pts vs Phoenix Mercu…
Projected Total
175.9pts
84.2 – 91.6
no market line
Halftime Proj
91.1pts
44.4 – 46.7
model projection
Quarter Scores
projected
Q1Q2Q3Q4
Phoen…20.923.520.619.3
Las V…24.921.822.922.1
Total45.845.343.541.4
from last 5+5 games
Phoenix Mercury W
Last 10: 4–6 (40%)
PPG: 86.4 — Allowed: 87.6 — Pace: 174
Las Vegas Aces W
Last 10: 8–2 (80%)
PPG: 92.1 — Allowed: 80.3 — Pace: 172.4
Phoenix Mercury W Form
Phoenix Mercury W
W2d
L5d
W6d
W25d
L27d
L29d
L32d
L38d
W43d
L46d
4W · 6L
22 Sept
Phoenix Mercu… vs Dallas Wings W
87-86W↗
Q:19-2624-2118-2126-18
19 Sept
Dallas Wings W vs Phoenix Mercu…
87-82L↗
Q:19-2437-2512-1519-18
18 Sept
Portland Fire… vs Phoenix Mercu…
91-94W↗
Q:26-2024-2319-2522-26
30 Aug
Phoenix Mercu… vs Toronto Tempo…
101-69W↗
Q:27-1731-1830-1413-20
28 Aug
Phoenix Mercu… vs Washington My…
73-80L↗
Q:18-2019-2020-1316-27
26 Aug
Phoenix Mercu… vs Washington My…
84-94L↗
23 Aug
Phoenix Mercu… vs Atlanta Dream…
89-99L↗
17 Aug
Phoenix Mercu… vs Portland Fire…
85-88L↗
12 Aug
Los Angeles S… vs Phoenix Mercu…
87-94W↗
09 Aug
Washington My… vs Phoenix Mercu…
95-75L↗
Las Vegas Aces W Form
Las Vegas Aces W
W1d
W3d
W6d
W26d
W31d
W34d
L36d
L39d
W41d
W43d
8W · 2L
23 Sept
Las Vegas Ace… vs Los Angeles S…
89-79W↗
Q:24-1118-2223-1824-28
21 Sept
Las Vegas Ace… vs Seattle Storm…
98-77W↗
Q:29-1823-2524-2122-13
18 Sept
Seattle Storm… vs Las Vegas Ace…
77-114W↗
Q:13-2521-2729-3314-29
29 Aug
Las Vegas Ace… vs Toronto Tempo…
93-73W↗
Q:27-1729-2218-1619-18
24 Aug
Toronto Tempo… vs Las Vegas Ace…
78-88W↗
Q:22-2517-1818-2321-22
21 Aug
Las Vegas Ace… vs Connecticut S…
101-78W↗
19 Aug
Las Vegas Ace… vs Atlanta Dream…
82-97L↗
16 Aug
Las Vegas Ace… vs Minnesota Lyn…
87-92L↗
14 Aug
Las Vegas Ace… vs Washington My…
83-76W↗
12 Aug
Las Vegas Ace… vs Washington My…
86-76W↗
Head-to-Head
Last 10
12 Jul
Las Vegas Ace… vs Phoenix Mercu…
106-58↗
Q:29-928-1322-1427-22
18 Jun
Phoenix Mercu… vs Las Vegas Ace…
76-86↗
Q:28-2421-2115-2312-18
09 May
Las Vegas Ace… vs Phoenix Mercu…
66-99↗
Q:21-2714-2910-2721-16
11 Oct
Phoenix Mercu… vs Las Vegas Ace…
86-97↗
Q:21-3017-2424-2224-21
09 Oct
Phoenix Mercu… vs Las Vegas Ace…
88-90↗
Q:23-2620-2916-2129-14
05 Oct
Las Vegas Ace… vs Phoenix Mercu…
91-78↗
04 Oct
Las Vegas Ace… vs Phoenix Mercu…
89-86↗
22 Aug
Las Vegas Ace… vs Phoenix Mercu…
83-61↗
16 Aug
Phoenix Mercu… vs Las Vegas Ace…
83-86↗
30 Jun
Phoenix Mercu… vs Las Vegas Ace…
81-84↗
Head-to-head summary
10 meetings — Phoenix Mercury W 1 / Las Vegas Aces W 9. Average total: 167.4.
Model output
{
  "expected_points": {
    "team_1": 84.2,
    "team_2": 91.6,
    "total": 175.9
  },
  "win_probability": {
    "team_1": 26,
    "team_2": 74
  },
  "form": {
    "team_1": {
      "played": 10,
      "wins": 4,
      "losses": 6,
      "win_rate": 0.4,
      "avg_pf": 86.4,
      "avg_pa": 87.6,
      "w_avg_pf": 86.7,
      "w_avg_pa": 87.1,
      "pace": 174,
      "blowout_rate": 0.2
    },
    "team_2": {
      "played": 10,
      "wins": 8,
      "losses": 2,
      "win_rate": 0.8,
      "avg_pf": 92.1,
      "avg_pa": 80.3,
      "w_avg_pf": 93,
      "w_avg_pa": 79.9,
      "pace": 172.4,
      "blowout_rate": 0.5
    }
  },
  "h2h_summary": {
    "considered": 10,
    "t1_wins": 1,
    "t2_wins": 9,
    "t1_win_rate": 0.1,
    "avg_total": 167.4
  },
  "confidence": 93,
  "winner": {
    "team": "Las Vegas Aces W",
    "probability": 74,
    "margin_pts": 7.4,
    "opponent": "Phoenix Mercury W",
    "opponent_probability": 26
  },
  "total_points": {
    "projected_total": 175.9,
    "team_1_proj": 84.2,
    "team_2_proj": 91.6,
    "market": null
  },
  "halftime": {
    "team_1": 44.4,
    "team_2": 46.7,
    "total": 91.1,
    "source": "projected_from_form"
  },
  "quarter_scores": null,
  "quarter_prediction": {
    "home": [
      20.9,
      23.5,
      20.6,
      19.3
    ],
    "away": [
      24.9,
      21.8,
      22.9,
      22.1
    ],
    "per_quarter_total": [
      45.8,
      45.3,
      43.5,
      41.4
    ],
    "halftime": {
      "home": 44.4,
      "away": 46.7,
      "total": 91.1
    },
    "source": "form",
    "t1_samples": 5,
    "t2_samples": 5,
    "t1_fractions": {
      "q1": 0.248,
      "q2": 0.279,
      "q3": 0.245,
      "q4": 0.229,
      "samples": 5
    },
    "t2_fractions": {
      "q1": 0.272,
      "q2": 0.238,
      "q3": 0.25,
      "q4": 0.241,
      "samples": 5
    }
  },
  "predictions": {
    "safe": {
      "market": "moneyline",
      "pick": "Las Vegas Aces W to win",
      "team": "Las Vegas Aces W",
      "win_prob": 74,
      "confidence": 93,
      "reason": "Projected margin ~7 pts; form 80% vs 40% (last 10/10); H2H 90% over last 10"
    },
    "high_risk": {
      "market": "total points (Over)",
      "pick": "Over (projected 176)",
      "projected": 175.9,
      "confidence": 93,
      "reason": "Combined pace 173.2 > league baseline."
    }
  },
  "model_version": "v2-2026-05-basketball"
}
Full match data
{
  "sport": "basketball",
  "league": "WNBA",
  "country": "Usa",
  "match": "Phoenix Mercury W vs Las Vegas Aces W",
  "date": "2026-09-25",
  "time": "05:00",
  "status": null,
  "score": null,
  "quarters": null,
  "match_stats": null,
  "team_1": {
    "name": "Phoenix Mercury W",
    "last_10_matches": [
      {
        "date": "22.09.26",
        "home": "Phoenix Mercury W",
        "away": "Dallas Wings W",
        "score": "87-86",
        "home_points": 87,
        "away_points": 86,
        "total_points": 173,
        "home_won": true,
        "quarters": {
          "home": [
            19,
            24,
            18,
            26
          ],
          "away": [
            26,
            21,
            21,
            18
          ]
        }
      },
      {
        "date": "19.09.26",
        "home": "Dallas Wings W",
        "away": "Phoenix Mercury W",
        "score": "87-82",
        "home_points": 87,
        "away_points": 82,
        "total_points": 169,
        "home_won": true,
        "quarters": {
          "home": [
            19,
            37,
            12,
            19
          ],
          "away": [
            24,
            25,
            15,
            18
          ]
        }
      },
      {
        "date": "18.09.26",
        "home": "Portland Fire W",
        "away": "Phoenix Mercury W",
        "score": "91-94",
        "home_points": 91,
        "away_points": 94,
        "total_points": 185,
        "home_won": false,
        "quarters": {
          "home": [
            26,
            24,
            19,
            22
          ],
          "away": [
            20,
            23,
            25,
            26
          ]
        }
      },
      {
        "date": "30.08.26",
        "home": "Phoenix Mercury W",
        "away": "Toronto Tempo W",
        "score": "101-69",
        "home_points": 101,
        "away_points": 69,
        "total_points": 170,
        "home_won": true,
        "quarters": {
          "home": [
            27,
            31,
            30,
            13
          ],
          "away": [
            17,
            18,
            14,
            20
          ]
        }
      },
      {
        "date": "28.08.26",
        "home": "Phoenix Mercury W",
        "away": "Washington Mystics W",
        "score": "73-80",
        "home_points": 73,
        "away_points": 80,
        "total_points": 153,
        "home_won": false,
        "quarters": {
          "home": [
            18,
            19,
            20,
            16
          ],
          "away": [
            20,
            20,
            13,
            27
          ]
        }
      },
      {
        "date": "26.08.26",
        "home": "Phoenix Mercury W",
        "away": "Washington Mystics W",
        "score": "84-94",
        "home_points": 84,
        "away_points": 94,
        "total_points": 178,
        "home_won": false,
        "quarters": null
      },
      {
        "date": "23.08.26",
        "home": "Phoenix Mercury W",
        "away": "Atlanta Dream W",
        "score": "89-99",
        "home_points": 89,
        "away_points": 99,
        "total_points": 188,
        "home_won": false,
        "quarters": null
      },
      {
        "date": "17.08.26",
        "home": "Phoenix Mercury W",
        "away": "Portland Fire W",
        "score": "85-88",
        "home_points": 85,
        "away_points": 88,
        "total_points": 173,
        "home_won": false,
        "quarters": null
      },
      {
        "date": "12.08.26",
        "home": "Los Angeles Sparks W",
        "away": "Phoenix Mercury W",
        "score": "87-94",
        "home_points": 87,
        "away_points": 94,
        "total_points": 181,
        "home_won": false,
        "quarters": null
      },
      {
        "date": "09.08.26",
        "home": "Washington Mystics W",
        "away": "Phoenix Mercury W",
        "score": "95-75",
        "home_points": 95,
        "away_points": 75,
        "total_points": 170,
        "home_won": true,
        "quarters": null
      }
    ]
  },
  "team_2": {
    "name": "Las Vegas Aces W",
    "last_10_matches": [
      {
        "date": "23.09.26",
        "home": "Las Vegas Aces W",
        "away": "Los Angeles Sparks W",
        "score": "89-79",
        "home_points": 89,
        "away_points": 79,
        "total_points": 168,
        "home_won": true,
        "quarters": {
          "home": [
            24,
            18,
            23,
            24
          ],
          "away": [
            11,
            22,
            18,
            28
          ]
        }
      },
      {
        "date": "21.09.26",
        "home": "Las Vegas Aces W",
        "away": "Seattle Storm W",
        "score": "98-77",
        "home_points": 98,
        "away_points": 77,
        "total_points": 175,
        "home_won": true,
        "quarters": {
          "home": [
            29,
            23,
            24,
            22
          ],
          "away": [
            18,
            25,
            21,
            13
          ]
        }
      },
      {
        "date": "18.09.26",
        "home": "Seattle Storm W",
        "away": "Las Vegas Aces W",
        "score": "77-114",
        "home_points": 77,
        "away_points": 114,
        "total_points": 191,
        "home_won": false,
        "quarters": {
          "home": [
            13,
            21,
            29,
            14
          ],
          "away": [
            25,
            27,
            33,
            29
          ]
        }
      },
      {
        "date": "29.08.26",
        "home": "Las Vegas Aces W",
        "away": "Toronto Tempo W",
        "score": "93-73",
        "home_points": 93,
        "away_points": 73,
        "total_points": 166,
        "home_won": true,
        "quarters": {
          "home": [
            27,
            29,
            18,
            19
          ],
          "away": [
            17,
            22,
            16,
            18
          ]
        }
      },
      {
        "date": "24.08.26",
        "home": "Toronto Tempo W",
        "away": "Las Vegas Aces W",
        "score": "78-88",
        "home_points": 78,
        "away_points": 88,
        "total_points": 166,
        "home_won": false,
        "quarters": {
          "home": [
            22,
            17,
            18,
            21
          ],
          "away": [
            25,
            18,
            23,
            22
          ]
        }
      },
      {
        "date": "21.08.26",
        "home": "Las Vegas Aces W",
        "away": "Connecticut Sun W",
        "score": "101-78",
        "home_points": 101,
        "away_points": 78,
        "total_points": 179,
        "home_won": true,
        "quarters": null
      },
      {
        "date": "19.08.26",
        "home": "Las Vegas Aces W",
        "away": "Atlanta Dream W",
        "score": "82-97",
        "home_points": 82,
        "away_points": 97,
        "total_points": 179,
        "home_won": false,
        "quarters": null
      },
      {
        "date": "16.08.26",
        "home": "Las Vegas Aces W",
        "away": "Minnesota Lynx W",
        "score": "87-92",
        "home_points": 87,
        "away_points": 92,
        "total_points": 179,
        "home_won": false,
        "quarters": null
      },
      {
        "date": "14.08.26",
        "home": "Las Vegas Aces W",
        "away": "Washington Mystics W",
        "score": "83-76",
        "home_points": 83,
        "away_points": 76,
        "total_points": 159,
        "home_won": true,
        "quarters": null
      },
      {
        "date": "12.08.26",
        "home": "Las Vegas Aces W",
        "away": "Washington Mystics W",
        "score": "86-76",
        "home_points": 86,
        "away_points": 76,
        "total_points": 162,
        "home_won": true,
        "quarters": null
      }
    ]
  },
  "head_to_head": {
    "last_10_matches": [
      {
        "date": "12.07.26",
        "home": "Las Vegas Aces W",
        "away": "Phoenix Mercury W",
        "score": "106-58",
        "home_points": 106,
        "away_points": 58,
        "total_points": 164,
        "home_won": true,
        "quarters": {
          "home": [
            29,
            28,
            22,
            27
          ],
          "away": [
            9,
            13,
            14,
            22
          ]
        }
      },
      {
        "date": "18.06.26",
        "home": "Phoenix Mercury W",
        "away": "Las Vegas Aces W",
        "score": "76-86",
        "home_points": 76,
        "away_points": 86,
        "total_points": 162,
        "home_won": false,
        "quarters": {
          "home": [
            28,
            21,
            15,
            12
          ],
          "away": [
            24,
            21,
            23,
            18
          ]
        }
      },
      {
        "date": "09.05.26",
        "home": "Las Vegas Aces W",
        "away": "Phoenix Mercury W",
        "score": "66-99",
        "home_points": 66,
        "away_points": 99,
        "total_points": 165,
        "home_won": false,
        "quarters": {
          "home": [
            21,
            14,
            10,
            21
          ],
          "away": [
            27,
            29,
            27,
            16
          ]
        }
      },
      {
        "date": "11.10.25",
        "home": "Phoenix Mercury W",
        "away": "Las Vegas Aces W",
        "score": "86-97",
        "home_points": 86,
        "away_points": 97,
        "total_points": 183,
        "home_won": false,
        "quarters": {
          "home": [
            21,
            17,
            24,
            24
          ],
          "away": [
            30,
            24,
            22,
            21
          ]
        }
      },
      {
        "date": "09.10.25",
        "home": "Phoenix Mercury W",
        "away": "Las Vegas Aces W",
        "score": "88-90",
        "home_points": 88,
        "away_points": 90,
        "total_points": 178,
        "home_won": false,
        "quarters": {
          "home": [
            23,
            20,
            16,
            29
          ],
          "away": [
            26,
            29,
            21,
            14
          ]
        }
      },
      {
        "date": "05.10.25",
        "home": "Las Vegas Aces W",
        "away": "Phoenix Mercury W",
        "score": "91-78",
        "home_points": 91,
        "away_points": 78,
        "total_points": 169,
        "home_won": true,
        "quarters": null
      },
      {
        "date": "04.10.25",
        "home": "Las Vegas Aces W",
        "away": "Phoenix Mercury W",
        "score": "89-86",
        "home_points": 89,
        "away_points": 86,
        "total_points": 175,
        "home_won": true,
        "quarters": null
      },
      {
        "date": "22.08.25",
        "home": "Las Vegas Aces W",
        "away": "Phoenix Mercury W",
        "score": "83-61",
        "home_points": 83,
        "away_points": 61,
        "total_points": 144,
        "home_won": true,
        "quarters": null
      },
      {
        "date": "16.08.25",
        "home": "Phoenix Mercury W",
        "away": "Las Vegas Aces W",
        "score": "83-86",
        "home_points": 83,
        "away_points": 86,
        "total_points": 169,
        "home_won": false,
        "quarters": null
      },
      {
        "date": "30.06.25",
        "home": "Phoenix Mercury W",
        "away": "Las Vegas Aces W",
        "score": "81-84",
        "home_points": 81,
        "away_points": 84,
        "total_points": 165,
        "home_won": false,
        "quarters": null
      }
    ]
  },
  "odds": {
    "match_winner": {
      "home": null,
      "away": null,
      "vig_pct": null
    }
  },
  "analysis": {
    "expected_points": {
      "team_1": 84.2,
      "team_2": 91.6,
      "total": 175.9
    },
    "win_probability": {
      "team_1": 26,
      "team_2": 74
    },
    "form": {
      "team_1": {
        "played": 10,
        "wins": 4,
        "losses": 6,
        "win_rate": 0.4,
        "avg_pf": 86.4,
        "avg_pa": 87.6,
        "w_avg_pf": 86.7,
        "w_avg_pa": 87.1,
        "pace": 174,
        "blowout_rate": 0.2
      },
      "team_2": {
        "played": 10,
        "wins": 8,
        "losses": 2,
        "win_rate": 0.8,
        "avg_pf": 92.1,
        "avg_pa": 80.3,
        "w_avg_pf": 93,
        "w_avg_pa": 79.9,
        "pace": 172.4,
        "blowout_rate": 0.5
      }
    },
    "h2h_summary": {
      "considered": 10,
      "t1_wins": 1,
      "t2_wins": 9,
      "t1_win_rate": 0.1,
      "avg_total": 167.4
    },
    "confidence": 93,
    "winner": {
      "team": "Las Vegas Aces W",
      "probability": 74,
      "margin_pts": 7.4,
      "opponent": "Phoenix Mercury W",
      "opponent_probability": 26
    },
    "total_points": {
      "projected_total": 175.9,
      "team_1_proj": 84.2,
      "team_2_proj": 91.6,
      "market": null
    },
    "halftime": {
      "team_1": 44.4,
      "team_2": 46.7,
      "total": 91.1,
      "source": "projected_from_form"
    },
    "quarter_scores": null,
    "quarter_prediction": {
      "home": [
        20.9,
        23.5,
        20.6,
        19.3
      ],
      "away": [
        24.9,
        21.8,
        22.9,
        22.1
      ],
      "per_quarter_total": [
        45.8,
        45.3,
        43.5,
        41.4
      ],
      "halftime": {
        "home": 44.4,
        "away": 46.7,
        "total": 91.1
      },
      "source": "form",
      "t1_samples": 5,
      "t2_samples": 5,
      "t1_fractions": {
        "q1": 0.248,
        "q2": 0.279,
        "q3": 0.245,
        "q4": 0.229,
        "samples": 5
      },
      "t2_fractions": {
        "q1": 0.272,
        "q2": 0.238,
        "q3": 0.25,
        "q4": 0.241,
        "samples": 5
      }
    },
    "predictions": {
      "safe": {
        "market": "moneyline",
        "pick": "Las Vegas Aces W to win",
        "team": "Las Vegas Aces W",
        "win_prob": 74,
        "confidence": 93,
        "reason": "Projected margin ~7 pts; form 80% vs 40% (last 10/10); H2H 90% over last 10"
      },
      "high_risk": {
        "market": "total points (Over)",
        "pick": "Over (projected 176)",
        "projected": 175.9,
        "confidence": 93,
        "reason": "Combined pace 173.2 > league baseline."
      }
    },
    "model_version": "v2-2026-05-basketball"
  }
}

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