Baseball · MLB · Usa
Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies
Thursday, 17 September 2026
Upcoming. The scheduled start is still ahead. Match status has not been confirmed live.Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies in MLB (Baseball) on Thursday, 17 September 2026. Model prediction: Washington Nationals 44% vs Philadelphia Phillies 56%. See the head-to-head record, recent form and odds. Predictions and stats update daily.
Usa • MLB
Washington Nationalsvs
Philadelphia Phillies17 Sept • 01:45
Upcoming. The scheduled start is still ahead. Match status has not been confirmed live.
Predicted Winner
Philadelphia Phillies
56%to win
by ~0.95 runs vs Washington Na…
Projected Total
9.79runs
4.42 – 5.37
no market line
First 5 (F5)
4.14runs
1.34 – 2.8
model projection
Inning Line Score
projected| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Nation… | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| Philadelphia Phil… | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 1.4 |
| Tot | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 2.3 |
from last 5+5 games
Washington Nationals
Last 10: 3–7 (30%)
RPG: 3.7 — Allowed: 5.7 — Run env: 9.4
Philadelphia Phillies
Last 10: 4–6 (40%)
RPG: 4.4 — Allowed: 4.9 — Run env: 9.3
Washington Nationals Form
Washington Nation…
W2d
W3d
W3d
L6d
L6d
L7d
L8d
L9d
L10d
L13d
By inning:0-00-00-01-01-00-10-12-41-—
By inning:0-10-30-00-00-00-00-03-02-1
By inning:1-00-00-00-10-00-01-00-31-—
By inning:0-00-02-30-20-20-00-10-10-—
By inning:0-01-00-00-00-02-00-11-40-—
Philadelphia Phillies Form
Philadelphia Phil…
W2d
L2d
L3d
L5d
W5d
L6d
W8d
L9d
W9d
L10d
By inning:0-12-00-00-00-00-00-17-00-2
By inning:1-00-00-00-80-00-10-01-30-—
By inning:0-13-00-00-00-00-00-10-00-1
By inning:0-01-00-00-00-10-00-00-01-0
By inning:0-00-04-42-00-10-61-00-00-—
Head-to-Head
Last 10
By inning:0-21-10-31-00-01-10-00-00-—
By inning:1-00-20-00-00-00-02-10-00-0
By inning:0-10-00-30-00-00-00-10-00-—
By inning:1-02-00-00-00-00-00-40-20-—
By inning:0-40-00-10-00-02-03-00-05-0
Head-to-head summary
10 meetings — Washington Nationals 2 / Philadelphia Phillies 8. Average total: 10.6.
Model output
{
"expected_runs": {
"team_1": 4.42,
"team_2": 5.37,
"total": 9.79
},
"win_probability": {
"team_1": 44,
"team_2": 56
},
"form": {
"team_1": {
"played": 10,
"wins": 3,
"losses": 7,
"win_rate": 0.3,
"avg_rf": 3.7,
"avg_ra": 5.7,
"w_avg_rf": 3.9,
"w_avg_ra": 5.56,
"run_rate": 9.4,
"blowout_rate": 0.2
},
"team_2": {
"played": 10,
"wins": 4,
"losses": 6,
"win_rate": 0.4,
"avg_rf": 4.4,
"avg_ra": 4.9,
"w_avg_rf": 4.59,
"w_avg_ra": 5.14,
"run_rate": 9.3,
"blowout_rate": 0.2
}
},
"h2h_summary": {
"considered": 10,
"t1_wins": 2,
"t2_wins": 8,
"t1_win_rate": 0.2,
"avg_total": 10.6
},
"confidence": 79,
"winner": {
"team": "Philadelphia Phillies",
"probability": 56,
"margin_runs": 0.95,
"opponent": "Washington Nationals",
"opponent_probability": 44
},
"total_runs": {
"projected_total": 9.79,
"team_1_proj": 4.42,
"team_2_proj": 5.37,
"market": null
},
"first_five": {
"team_1": 1.34,
"team_2": 2.8,
"total": 4.14,
"source": "projected_from_form"
},
"inning_scores": null,
"inning_prediction": {
"home": [
0.3,
0,
0.3,
0.37,
0.37,
0,
0.57,
1.69,
0.83
],
"away": [
0.63,
0.54,
0.61,
1.02,
0,
0.09,
0.78,
0.27,
1.44
],
"per_inning_total": [
0.93,
0.54,
0.91,
1.39,
0.37,
0.09,
1.35,
1.96,
2.27
],
"first_five": {
"home": 1.34,
"away": 2.8,
"total": 4.14
},
"source": "form",
"t1_samples": 5,
"t2_samples": 5,
"t1_fractions": {
"i1": 0.067,
"i2": 0,
"i3": 0.067,
"i4": 0.084,
"i5": 0.084,
"i6": 0,
"i7": 0.129,
"i8": 0.382,
"i9": 0.187
},
"t2_fractions": {
"i1": 0.117,
"i2": 0.1,
"i3": 0.114,
"i4": 0.19,
"i5": 0,
"i6": 0.017,
"i7": 0.145,
"i8": 0.05,
"i9": 0.267
}
},
"predictions": {
"safe": null,
"high_risk": {
"market": "moneyline (underdog)",
"pick": "Washington Nationals +ML",
"team": "Washington Nationals",
"win_prob": 44,
"confidence": 79,
"reason": "Washington Nationals has a live shot (44%) at a price the market may shade."
}
},
"model_version": "v1-2026-06-baseball"
}Full match data
{
"sport": "baseball",
"league": "MLB",
"country": "Usa",
"match": "Washington Nationals vs Philadelphia Phillies",
"date": "2026-09-17",
"time": "01:45",
"status": null,
"score": null,
"innings": null,
"match_stats": null,
"team_1": {
"name": "Washington Nationals",
"last_10_matches": [
{
"date": "13.09.26",
"home": "Washington Nationals",
"away": "Los Angeles Angels",
"score": "6-5",
"home_points": 6,
"away_points": 5,
"total_points": 11,
"home_won": true,
"innings": {
"home": [
0,
0,
0,
1,
1,
0,
0,
2,
1
],
"away": [
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
1,
1,
4
]
}
},
{
"date": "12.09.26",
"home": "Washington Nationals",
"away": "Los Angeles Angels",
"score": "6-5",
"home_points": 6,
"away_points": 5,
"total_points": 11,
"home_won": true,
"innings": {
"home": [
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
3,
2
],
"away": [
1,
3,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
1
]
}
},
{
"date": "12.09.26",
"home": "Washington Nationals",
"away": "Los Angeles Angels",
"score": "4-3",
"home_points": 4,
"away_points": 3,
"total_points": 7,
"home_won": true,
"innings": {
"home": [
1,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
1,
0,
1
],
"away": [
0,
0,
0,
1,
0,
0,
0,
3
]
}
},
{
"date": "09.09.26",
"home": "San Diego Padres",
"away": "Washington Nationals",
"score": "9-2",
"home_points": 9,
"away_points": 2,
"total_points": 11,
"home_won": true,
"innings": {
"home": [
0,
0,
2,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0
],
"away": [
0,
0,
3,
2,
2,
0,
1,
1
]
}
},
{
"date": "09.09.26",
"home": "San Diego Padres",
"away": "Washington Nationals",
"score": "5-4",
"home_points": 5,
"away_points": 4,
"total_points": 9,
"home_won": true,
"innings": {
"home": [
0,
1,
0,
0,
0,
2,
0,
1,
0
],
"away": [
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
1,
4
]
}
},
{
"date": "08.09.26",
"home": "San Diego Padres",
"away": "Washington Nationals",
"score": "3-2",
"home_points": 3,
"away_points": 2,
"total_points": 5,
"home_won": true,
"innings": null
},
{
"date": "07.09.26",
"home": "Los Angeles Dodgers",
"away": "Washington Nationals",
"score": "7-5",
"home_points": 7,
"away_points": 5,
"total_points": 12,
"home_won": true,
"innings": null
},
{
"date": "06.09.26",
"home": "Los Angeles Dodgers",
"away": "Washington Nationals",
"score": "6-5",
"home_points": 6,
"away_points": 5,
"total_points": 11,
"home_won": true,
"innings": null
},
{
"date": "05.09.26",
"home": "Los Angeles Dodgers",
"away": "Washington Nationals",
"score": "5-3",
"home_points": 5,
"away_points": 3,
"total_points": 8,
"home_won": true,
"innings": null
},
{
"date": "02.09.26",
"home": "Washington Nationals",
"away": "Atlanta Braves",
"score": "0-9",
"home_points": 0,
"away_points": 9,
"total_points": 9,
"home_won": false,
"innings": null
}
]
},
"team_2": {
"name": "Philadelphia Phillies",
"last_10_matches": [
{
"date": "13.09.26",
"home": "Atlanta Braves",
"away": "Philadelphia Phillies",
"score": "4-9",
"home_points": 4,
"away_points": 9,
"total_points": 13,
"home_won": false,
"innings": {
"home": [
0,
2,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
7,
0
],
"away": [
1,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
1,
0,
2
]
}
},
{
"date": "13.09.26",
"home": "Atlanta Braves",
"away": "Philadelphia Phillies",
"score": "12-2",
"home_points": 12,
"away_points": 2,
"total_points": 14,
"home_won": true,
"innings": {
"home": [
1,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
1,
0
],
"away": [
0,
0,
0,
8,
0,
1,
0,
3
]
}
},
{
"date": "12.09.26",
"home": "Atlanta Braves",
"away": "Philadelphia Phillies",
"score": "6-5",
"home_points": 6,
"away_points": 5,
"total_points": 11,
"home_won": true,
"innings": {
"home": [
0,
3,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0
],
"away": [
1,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
1,
0,
1
]
}
},
{
"date": "10.09.26",
"home": "Philadelphia Phillies",
"away": "Houston Astros",
"score": "1-2",
"home_points": 1,
"away_points": 2,
"total_points": 3,
"home_won": false,
"innings": {
"home": [
0,
1,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
1
],
"away": [
0,
0,
0,
0,
1,
0,
0,
0,
0
]
}
},
{
"date": "10.09.26",
"home": "Philadelphia Phillies",
"away": "Houston Astros",
"score": "11-7",
"home_points": 11,
"away_points": 7,
"total_points": 18,
"home_won": true,
"innings": {
"home": [
0,
0,
4,
2,
0,
0,
1,
0,
0
],
"away": [
0,
0,
4,
0,
1,
6,
0,
0
]
}
},
{
"date": "09.09.26",
"home": "Philadelphia Phillies",
"away": "Houston Astros",
"score": "5-6",
"home_points": 5,
"away_points": 6,
"total_points": 11,
"home_won": false,
"innings": null
},
{
"date": "07.09.26",
"home": "Philadelphia Phillies",
"away": "Atlanta Braves",
"score": "1-0",
"home_points": 1,
"away_points": 0,
"total_points": 1,
"home_won": true,
"innings": null
},
{
"date": "06.09.26",
"home": "Philadelphia Phillies",
"away": "Atlanta Braves",
"score": "4-5",
"home_points": 4,
"away_points": 5,
"total_points": 9,
"home_won": false,
"innings": null
},
{
"date": "06.09.26",
"home": "Philadelphia Phillies",
"away": "Atlanta Braves",
"score": "4-2",
"home_points": 4,
"away_points": 2,
"total_points": 6,
"home_won": true,
"innings": null
},
{
"date": "05.09.26",
"home": "Philadelphia Phillies",
"away": "Atlanta Braves",
"score": "2-5",
"home_points": 2,
"away_points": 5,
"total_points": 7,
"home_won": false,
"innings": null
}
]
},
"head_to_head": {
"last_10_matches": [
{
"date": "07.08.26",
"home": "Philadelphia Phillies",
"away": "Washington Nationals",
"score": "7-3",
"home_points": 7,
"away_points": 3,
"total_points": 10,
"home_won": true,
"innings": {
"home": [
0,
1,
0,
1,
0,
1,
0,
0,
0
],
"away": [
2,
1,
3,
0,
0,
1,
0,
0
]
}
},
{
"date": "06.08.26",
"home": "Philadelphia Phillies",
"away": "Washington Nationals",
"score": "4-10",
"home_points": 4,
"away_points": 10,
"total_points": 14,
"home_won": false,
"innings": {
"home": [
1,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
2,
0,
0
],
"away": [
0,
2,
0,
0,
0,
0,
1,
0,
0
]
}
},
{
"date": "05.08.26",
"home": "Philadelphia Phillies",
"away": "Washington Nationals",
"score": "5-0",
"home_points": 5,
"away_points": 0,
"total_points": 5,
"home_won": true,
"innings": {
"home": [
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0
],
"away": [
1,
0,
3,
0,
0,
0,
1,
0
]
}
},
{
"date": "04.08.26",
"home": "Philadelphia Phillies",
"away": "Washington Nationals",
"score": "6-3",
"home_points": 6,
"away_points": 3,
"total_points": 9,
"home_won": true,
"innings": {
"home": [
1,
2,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0
],
"away": [
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
4,
2
]
}
},
{
"date": "26.06.26",
"home": "Washington Nationals",
"away": "Philadelphia Phillies",
"score": "5-10",
"home_points": 5,
"away_points": 10,
"total_points": 15,
"home_won": false,
"innings": {
"home": [
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
2,
3,
0,
5
],
"away": [
4,
0,
1,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0
]
}
},
{
"date": "25.06.26",
"home": "Washington Nationals",
"away": "Philadelphia Phillies",
"score": "4-5",
"home_points": 4,
"away_points": 5,
"total_points": 9,
"home_won": false,
"innings": null
},
{
"date": "24.06.26",
"home": "Washington Nationals",
"away": "Philadelphia Phillies",
"score": "9-14",
"home_points": 9,
"away_points": 14,
"total_points": 23,
"home_won": false,
"innings": null
},
{
"date": "23.06.26",
"home": "Washington Nationals",
"away": "Philadelphia Phillies",
"score": "4-1",
"home_points": 4,
"away_points": 1,
"total_points": 5,
"home_won": true,
"innings": null
},
{
"date": "01.04.26",
"home": "Philadelphia Phillies",
"away": "Washington Nationals",
"score": "6-5",
"home_points": 6,
"away_points": 5,
"total_points": 11,
"home_won": true,
"innings": null
},
{
"date": "01.04.26",
"home": "Philadelphia Phillies",
"away": "Washington Nationals",
"score": "3-2",
"home_points": 3,
"away_points": 2,
"total_points": 5,
"home_won": true,
"innings": null
}
]
},
"odds": {
"match_winner": {
"home": null,
"away": null,
"vig_pct": null
}
},
"analysis": {
"expected_runs": {
"team_1": 4.42,
"team_2": 5.37,
"total": 9.79
},
"win_probability": {
"team_1": 44,
"team_2": 56
},
"form": {
"team_1": {
"played": 10,
"wins": 3,
"losses": 7,
"win_rate": 0.3,
"avg_rf": 3.7,
"avg_ra": 5.7,
"w_avg_rf": 3.9,
"w_avg_ra": 5.56,
"run_rate": 9.4,
"blowout_rate": 0.2
},
"team_2": {
"played": 10,
"wins": 4,
"losses": 6,
"win_rate": 0.4,
"avg_rf": 4.4,
"avg_ra": 4.9,
"w_avg_rf": 4.59,
"w_avg_ra": 5.14,
"run_rate": 9.3,
"blowout_rate": 0.2
}
},
"h2h_summary": {
"considered": 10,
"t1_wins": 2,
"t2_wins": 8,
"t1_win_rate": 0.2,
"avg_total": 10.6
},
"confidence": 79,
"winner": {
"team": "Philadelphia Phillies",
"probability": 56,
"margin_runs": 0.95,
"opponent": "Washington Nationals",
"opponent_probability": 44
},
"total_runs": {
"projected_total": 9.79,
"team_1_proj": 4.42,
"team_2_proj": 5.37,
"market": null
},
"first_five": {
"team_1": 1.34,
"team_2": 2.8,
"total": 4.14,
"source": "projected_from_form"
},
"inning_scores": null,
"inning_prediction": {
"home": [
0.3,
0,
0.3,
0.37,
0.37,
0,
0.57,
1.69,
0.83
],
"away": [
0.63,
0.54,
0.61,
1.02,
0,
0.09,
0.78,
0.27,
1.44
],
"per_inning_total": [
0.93,
0.54,
0.91,
1.39,
0.37,
0.09,
1.35,
1.96,
2.27
],
"first_five": {
"home": 1.34,
"away": 2.8,
"total": 4.14
},
"source": "form",
"t1_samples": 5,
"t2_samples": 5,
"t1_fractions": {
"i1": 0.067,
"i2": 0,
"i3": 0.067,
"i4": 0.084,
"i5": 0.084,
"i6": 0,
"i7": 0.129,
"i8": 0.382,
"i9": 0.187
},
"t2_fractions": {
"i1": 0.117,
"i2": 0.1,
"i3": 0.114,
"i4": 0.19,
"i5": 0,
"i6": 0.017,
"i7": 0.145,
"i8": 0.05,
"i9": 0.267
}
},
"predictions": {
"safe": null,
"high_risk": {
"market": "moneyline (underdog)",
"pick": "Washington Nationals +ML",
"team": "Washington Nationals",
"win_prob": 44,
"confidence": 79,
"reason": "Washington Nationals has a live shot (44%) at a price the market may shade."
}
},
"model_version": "v1-2026-06-baseball"
},
"model": {
"win_probability": {
"team_1": 44,
"team_2": 56
},
"prediction_quality": "high",
"expected_runs": {
"team_1": 4.42,
"team_2": 5.37,
"total": 9.79
},
"predicted_winner": "Philadelphia Phillies",
"model_version": "v1-2026-06-baseball"
}
}Prediction alerts
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