Baseball · MLB · Usa
New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies
Saturday, 19 September 2026
Upcoming. The scheduled start is still ahead. Match status has not been confirmed live.New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies in MLB (Baseball) on Saturday, 19 September 2026. Model prediction: New York Mets 56% vs Philadelphia Phillies 44%. See the head-to-head record, recent form and odds. Predictions and stats update daily.
Usa • MLB
New York Metsvs
Philadelphia Phillies19 Sept • 23:10
Upcoming. The scheduled start is still ahead. Match status has not been confirmed live.
Predicted Winner
New York Mets
56%to win
by ~1.01 runs vs Philadelphia …
Projected Total
10.77runs
5.89 – 4.88
no market line
First 5 (F5)
6.13runs
3.58 – 2.55
model projection
Inning Line Score
projected| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Mets | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| Philadelphia Phil… | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 1.3 |
| Tot | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 0.2 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.6 |
from last 5+5 games
New York Mets
Last 10: 6–4 (60%)
RPG: 6.7 — Allowed: 5.2 — Run env: 11.9
Philadelphia Phillies
Last 10: 4–6 (40%)
RPG: 4.4 — Allowed: 4.9 — Run env: 9.3
New York Mets Form
New York Mets
L0d
L2d
W3d
L3d
W5d
W6d
W8d
W9d
L10d
W10d
By inning:0-01-00-00-10-00-00-01-00-0
By inning:0-10-00-10-00-00-00-00-00-—
By inning:1-02-01-00-11-00-11-05-01-0
By inning:0-11-30-00-00-10-01-01-11-—
By inning:0-06-02-00-30-00-56-11-20-3
Philadelphia Phillies Form
Philadelphia Phil…
W2d
L2d
L3d
L5d
W5d
L6d
W8d
L9d
W9d
L10d
By inning:0-12-00-00-00-00-00-17-00-2
By inning:1-00-00-00-80-00-10-01-30-—
By inning:0-13-00-00-00-00-00-10-00-1
By inning:0-01-00-00-00-10-00-00-01-0
By inning:0-00-04-42-00-10-61-00-00-—
Head-to-Head
Last 10
By inning:2-03-00-00-00-01-00-10-00-0
By inning:0-21-00-00-00-20-20-00-00-—
By inning:0-00-01-00-00-00-02-00-11-0
By inning:0-00-03-00-00-10-32-00-00-0
By inning:0-00-02-00-00-00-40-20-00-—
Head-to-head summary
10 meetings — New York Mets 4 / Philadelphia Phillies 6. Average total: 8.5.
Model output
{
"expected_runs": {
"team_1": 5.89,
"team_2": 4.88,
"total": 10.77
},
"win_probability": {
"team_1": 56,
"team_2": 44
},
"form": {
"team_1": {
"played": 10,
"wins": 6,
"losses": 4,
"win_rate": 0.6,
"avg_rf": 6.7,
"avg_ra": 5.2,
"w_avg_rf": 6.43,
"w_avg_ra": 4.97,
"run_rate": 11.9,
"blowout_rate": 0.2
},
"team_2": {
"played": 10,
"wins": 4,
"losses": 6,
"win_rate": 0.4,
"avg_rf": 4.4,
"avg_ra": 4.9,
"w_avg_rf": 4.59,
"w_avg_ra": 5.14,
"run_rate": 9.3,
"blowout_rate": 0.2
}
},
"h2h_summary": {
"considered": 10,
"t1_wins": 4,
"t2_wins": 6,
"t1_win_rate": 0.4,
"avg_total": 8.5
},
"confidence": 69,
"winner": {
"team": "New York Mets",
"probability": 56,
"margin_runs": 1.01,
"opponent": "Philadelphia Phillies",
"opponent_probability": 44
},
"total_runs": {
"projected_total": 10.77,
"team_1_proj": 5.89,
"team_2_proj": 4.88,
"market": null
},
"first_five": {
"team_1": 3.58,
"team_2": 2.55,
"total": 6.13,
"source": "projected_from_form"
},
"inning_scores": null,
"inning_prediction": {
"home": [
0.78,
1.18,
0.59,
0.84,
0.19,
1.01,
0.08,
0.95,
0.25
],
"away": [
0.57,
0.49,
0.56,
0.93,
0,
0.08,
0.71,
0.24,
1.3
],
"per_inning_total": [
1.35,
1.67,
1.15,
1.77,
0.19,
1.09,
0.79,
1.19,
1.55
],
"first_five": {
"home": 3.58,
"away": 2.55,
"total": 6.13
},
"source": "form",
"t1_samples": 5,
"t2_samples": 5,
"t1_fractions": {
"i1": 0.133,
"i2": 0.2,
"i3": 0.1,
"i4": 0.143,
"i5": 0.033,
"i6": 0.171,
"i7": 0.014,
"i8": 0.162,
"i9": 0.043
},
"t2_fractions": {
"i1": 0.117,
"i2": 0.1,
"i3": 0.114,
"i4": 0.19,
"i5": 0,
"i6": 0.017,
"i7": 0.145,
"i8": 0.05,
"i9": 0.267
}
},
"predictions": {
"safe": null,
"high_risk": {
"market": "moneyline (underdog)",
"pick": "Philadelphia Phillies +ML",
"team": "Philadelphia Phillies",
"win_prob": 44,
"confidence": 69,
"reason": "Philadelphia Phillies has a live shot (44%) at a price the market may shade."
}
},
"model_version": "v1-2026-06-baseball"
}Full match data
{
"sport": "baseball",
"league": "MLB",
"country": "Usa",
"match": "New York Mets vs Philadelphia Phillies",
"date": "2026-09-19",
"time": "23:10",
"status": "",
"score": null,
"innings": null,
"match_stats": null,
"team_1": {
"name": "New York Mets",
"last_10_matches": [
{
"date": "15.09.26",
"home": "New York Mets",
"away": "Baltimore Orioles",
"score": "1-2",
"home_points": 1,
"away_points": 2,
"total_points": 3,
"home_won": false,
"innings": {
"home": [
0,
1,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
1,
0
],
"away": [
0,
0,
0,
1,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0
]
}
},
{
"date": "13.09.26",
"home": "New York Yankees",
"away": "New York Mets",
"score": "2-0",
"home_points": 2,
"away_points": 0,
"total_points": 2,
"home_won": true,
"innings": {
"home": [
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0
],
"away": [
1,
0,
1,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0
]
}
},
{
"date": "12.09.26",
"home": "New York Yankees",
"away": "New York Mets",
"score": "2-12",
"home_points": 2,
"away_points": 12,
"total_points": 14,
"home_won": false,
"innings": {
"home": [
1,
2,
1,
0,
1,
0,
1,
5,
1
],
"away": [
0,
0,
0,
1,
0,
1,
0,
0,
0
]
}
},
{
"date": "12.09.26",
"home": "New York Yankees",
"away": "New York Mets",
"score": "6-4",
"home_points": 6,
"away_points": 4,
"total_points": 10,
"home_won": true,
"innings": {
"home": [
0,
1,
0,
0,
0,
0,
1,
1,
1
],
"away": [
1,
3,
0,
0,
1,
0,
0,
1
]
}
},
{
"date": "10.09.26",
"home": "Miami Marlins",
"away": "New York Mets",
"score": "14-15",
"home_points": 14,
"away_points": 15,
"total_points": 29,
"home_won": false,
"innings": {
"home": [
0,
6,
2,
0,
0,
0,
6,
1,
0
],
"away": [
0,
0,
0,
3,
0,
5,
1,
2,
3
]
}
},
{
"date": "09.09.26",
"home": "Miami Marlins",
"away": "New York Mets",
"score": "5-7",
"home_points": 5,
"away_points": 7,
"total_points": 12,
"home_won": false,
"innings": null
},
{
"date": "07.09.26",
"home": "Miami Marlins",
"away": "New York Mets",
"score": "4-9",
"home_points": 4,
"away_points": 9,
"total_points": 13,
"home_won": false,
"innings": null
},
{
"date": "06.09.26",
"home": "New York Mets",
"away": "San Francisco Giants",
"score": "4-2",
"home_points": 4,
"away_points": 2,
"total_points": 6,
"home_won": true,
"innings": null
},
{
"date": "05.09.26",
"home": "New York Mets",
"away": "San Francisco Giants",
"score": "5-9",
"home_points": 5,
"away_points": 9,
"total_points": 14,
"home_won": false,
"innings": null
},
{
"date": "05.09.26",
"home": "New York Mets",
"away": "San Francisco Giants",
"score": "10-6",
"home_points": 10,
"away_points": 6,
"total_points": 16,
"home_won": true,
"innings": null
}
]
},
"team_2": {
"name": "Philadelphia Phillies",
"last_10_matches": [
{
"date": "13.09.26",
"home": "Atlanta Braves",
"away": "Philadelphia Phillies",
"score": "4-9",
"home_points": 4,
"away_points": 9,
"total_points": 13,
"home_won": false,
"innings": {
"home": [
0,
2,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
7,
0
],
"away": [
1,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
1,
0,
2
]
}
},
{
"date": "13.09.26",
"home": "Atlanta Braves",
"away": "Philadelphia Phillies",
"score": "12-2",
"home_points": 12,
"away_points": 2,
"total_points": 14,
"home_won": true,
"innings": {
"home": [
1,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
1,
0
],
"away": [
0,
0,
0,
8,
0,
1,
0,
3
]
}
},
{
"date": "12.09.26",
"home": "Atlanta Braves",
"away": "Philadelphia Phillies",
"score": "6-5",
"home_points": 6,
"away_points": 5,
"total_points": 11,
"home_won": true,
"innings": {
"home": [
0,
3,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0
],
"away": [
1,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
1,
0,
1
]
}
},
{
"date": "10.09.26",
"home": "Philadelphia Phillies",
"away": "Houston Astros",
"score": "1-2",
"home_points": 1,
"away_points": 2,
"total_points": 3,
"home_won": false,
"innings": {
"home": [
0,
1,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
1
],
"away": [
0,
0,
0,
0,
1,
0,
0,
0,
0
]
}
},
{
"date": "10.09.26",
"home": "Philadelphia Phillies",
"away": "Houston Astros",
"score": "11-7",
"home_points": 11,
"away_points": 7,
"total_points": 18,
"home_won": true,
"innings": {
"home": [
0,
0,
4,
2,
0,
0,
1,
0,
0
],
"away": [
0,
0,
4,
0,
1,
6,
0,
0
]
}
},
{
"date": "09.09.26",
"home": "Philadelphia Phillies",
"away": "Houston Astros",
"score": "5-6",
"home_points": 5,
"away_points": 6,
"total_points": 11,
"home_won": false,
"innings": null
},
{
"date": "07.09.26",
"home": "Philadelphia Phillies",
"away": "Atlanta Braves",
"score": "1-0",
"home_points": 1,
"away_points": 0,
"total_points": 1,
"home_won": true,
"innings": null
},
{
"date": "06.09.26",
"home": "Philadelphia Phillies",
"away": "Atlanta Braves",
"score": "4-5",
"home_points": 4,
"away_points": 5,
"total_points": 9,
"home_won": false,
"innings": null
},
{
"date": "06.09.26",
"home": "Philadelphia Phillies",
"away": "Atlanta Braves",
"score": "4-2",
"home_points": 4,
"away_points": 2,
"total_points": 6,
"home_won": true,
"innings": null
},
{
"date": "05.09.26",
"home": "Philadelphia Phillies",
"away": "Atlanta Braves",
"score": "2-5",
"home_points": 2,
"away_points": 5,
"total_points": 7,
"home_won": false,
"innings": null
}
]
},
"head_to_head": {
"last_10_matches": [
{
"date": "19.07.26",
"home": "Philadelphia Phillies",
"away": "New York Mets",
"score": "1-6",
"home_points": 1,
"away_points": 6,
"total_points": 7,
"home_won": false,
"innings": {
"home": [
2,
3,
0,
0,
0,
1,
0,
0,
0
],
"away": [
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
1,
0,
0
]
}
},
{
"date": "18.07.26",
"home": "Philadelphia Phillies",
"away": "New York Mets",
"score": "6-1",
"home_points": 6,
"away_points": 1,
"total_points": 7,
"home_won": true,
"innings": {
"home": [
0,
1,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0
],
"away": [
2,
0,
0,
0,
2,
2,
0,
0
]
}
},
{
"date": "17.07.26",
"home": "Philadelphia Phillies",
"away": "New York Mets",
"score": "1-4",
"home_points": 1,
"away_points": 4,
"total_points": 5,
"home_won": false,
"innings": {
"home": [
0,
0,
1,
0,
0,
0,
2,
0,
1
],
"away": [
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
1,
0
]
}
},
{
"date": "28.06.26",
"home": "New York Mets",
"away": "Philadelphia Phillies",
"score": "4-5",
"home_points": 4,
"away_points": 5,
"total_points": 9,
"home_won": false,
"innings": {
"home": [
0,
0,
3,
0,
0,
0,
2,
0,
0
],
"away": [
0,
0,
0,
0,
1,
3,
0,
0,
0
]
}
},
{
"date": "27.06.26",
"home": "New York Mets",
"away": "Philadelphia Phillies",
"score": "6-2",
"home_points": 6,
"away_points": 2,
"total_points": 8,
"home_won": true,
"innings": {
"home": [
0,
0,
2,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0
],
"away": [
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
4,
2,
0
]
}
},
{
"date": "27.06.26",
"home": "New York Mets",
"away": "Philadelphia Phillies",
"score": "1-2",
"home_points": 1,
"away_points": 2,
"total_points": 3,
"home_won": false,
"innings": null
},
{
"date": "22.06.26",
"home": "Philadelphia Phillies",
"away": "New York Mets",
"score": "6-2",
"home_points": 6,
"away_points": 2,
"total_points": 8,
"home_won": true,
"innings": null
},
{
"date": "21.06.26",
"home": "Philadelphia Phillies",
"away": "New York Mets",
"score": "15-3",
"home_points": 15,
"away_points": 3,
"total_points": 18,
"home_won": true,
"innings": null
},
{
"date": "19.06.26",
"home": "Philadelphia Phillies",
"away": "New York Mets",
"score": "4-6",
"home_points": 4,
"away_points": 6,
"total_points": 10,
"home_won": false,
"innings": null
},
{
"date": "12.09.25",
"home": "Philadelphia Phillies",
"away": "New York Mets",
"score": "6-4",
"home_points": 6,
"away_points": 4,
"total_points": 10,
"home_won": true,
"innings": null
}
]
},
"odds": {
"match_winner": {
"home": null,
"away": null,
"vig_pct": null
}
},
"analysis": {
"expected_runs": {
"team_1": 5.89,
"team_2": 4.88,
"total": 10.77
},
"win_probability": {
"team_1": 56,
"team_2": 44
},
"form": {
"team_1": {
"played": 10,
"wins": 6,
"losses": 4,
"win_rate": 0.6,
"avg_rf": 6.7,
"avg_ra": 5.2,
"w_avg_rf": 6.43,
"w_avg_ra": 4.97,
"run_rate": 11.9,
"blowout_rate": 0.2
},
"team_2": {
"played": 10,
"wins": 4,
"losses": 6,
"win_rate": 0.4,
"avg_rf": 4.4,
"avg_ra": 4.9,
"w_avg_rf": 4.59,
"w_avg_ra": 5.14,
"run_rate": 9.3,
"blowout_rate": 0.2
}
},
"h2h_summary": {
"considered": 10,
"t1_wins": 4,
"t2_wins": 6,
"t1_win_rate": 0.4,
"avg_total": 8.5
},
"confidence": 69,
"winner": {
"team": "New York Mets",
"probability": 56,
"margin_runs": 1.01,
"opponent": "Philadelphia Phillies",
"opponent_probability": 44
},
"total_runs": {
"projected_total": 10.77,
"team_1_proj": 5.89,
"team_2_proj": 4.88,
"market": null
},
"first_five": {
"team_1": 3.58,
"team_2": 2.55,
"total": 6.13,
"source": "projected_from_form"
},
"inning_scores": null,
"inning_prediction": {
"home": [
0.78,
1.18,
0.59,
0.84,
0.19,
1.01,
0.08,
0.95,
0.25
],
"away": [
0.57,
0.49,
0.56,
0.93,
0,
0.08,
0.71,
0.24,
1.3
],
"per_inning_total": [
1.35,
1.67,
1.15,
1.77,
0.19,
1.09,
0.79,
1.19,
1.55
],
"first_five": {
"home": 3.58,
"away": 2.55,
"total": 6.13
},
"source": "form",
"t1_samples": 5,
"t2_samples": 5,
"t1_fractions": {
"i1": 0.133,
"i2": 0.2,
"i3": 0.1,
"i4": 0.143,
"i5": 0.033,
"i6": 0.171,
"i7": 0.014,
"i8": 0.162,
"i9": 0.043
},
"t2_fractions": {
"i1": 0.117,
"i2": 0.1,
"i3": 0.114,
"i4": 0.19,
"i5": 0,
"i6": 0.017,
"i7": 0.145,
"i8": 0.05,
"i9": 0.267
}
},
"predictions": {
"safe": null,
"high_risk": {
"market": "moneyline (underdog)",
"pick": "Philadelphia Phillies +ML",
"team": "Philadelphia Phillies",
"win_prob": 44,
"confidence": 69,
"reason": "Philadelphia Phillies has a live shot (44%) at a price the market may shade."
}
},
"model_version": "v1-2026-06-baseball"
},
"model": {
"win_probability": {
"team_1": 56,
"team_2": 44
},
"prediction_quality": "medium",
"expected_runs": {
"team_1": 5.89,
"team_2": 4.88,
"total": 10.77
},
"predicted_winner": "New York Mets",
"model_version": "v1-2026-06-baseball"
}
}Prediction alerts
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