Baseball · NPB · Japan
Chiba Lotte Marines vs Orix Buffaloes
Tuesday, 22 September 2026
Upcoming. The scheduled start is still ahead. Match status has not been confirmed live.Chiba Lotte Marines vs Orix Buffaloes in NPB (Baseball) on Tuesday, 22 September 2026. Model prediction: Chiba Lotte Marines 54% vs Orix Buffaloes 46%. See the head-to-head record, recent form and odds. Predictions and stats update daily.
Japan • NPB
Chiba Lotte Marinesvs
Orix Buffaloes22 Sept • 12:00
Upcoming. The scheduled start is still ahead. Match status has not been confirmed live.
Predicted Winner
Chiba Lotte Marines
54%to win
by ~0.72 runs vs Orix Buffaloes
Projected Total
8.61runs
4.66 – 3.94
no market line
First 5 (F5)
6.27runs
3.66 – 2.61
model projection
Inning Line Score
projected| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chiba Lotte Marin… | 0.5 | 0.1 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
| Orix Buffaloes | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Tot | 0.7 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
from last 5+5 games
Chiba Lotte Marines
Last 10: 5–5 (50%)
RPG: 4.5 — Allowed: 4.6 — Run env: 9.1
Orix Buffaloes
Last 10: 4–6 (40%)
RPG: 2.7 — Allowed: 4.4 — Run env: 7.1
Chiba Lotte Marines Form
Chiba Lotte Marin…
W0d
L2d
L3d
L4d
W5d
W6d
W7d
W9d
L10d
L11d
By inning:0-00-10-10-04-12-10-10-11-0
By inning:0-00-01-30-23-00-20-00-00-—
By inning:1-20-00-30-00-00-01-00-02-—
By inning:1-10-00-00-70-00-00-20-10-—
By inning:0-00-40-01-00-00-00-20-00-—
Orix Buffaloes Form
Orix Buffaloes
L0d
W3d
W4d
L5d
L6d
L7d
L9d
W10d
W11d
L13d
By inning:0-00-00-01-03-11-10-10-00-0
By inning:0-00-20-10-00-02-00-21-00-—
By inning:1-00-00-00-23-10-20-00-00-—
By inning:0-14-00-02-00-20-00-00-12-0
By inning:0-01-00-05-00-01-00-01-00-0
Head-to-Head
Last 10
By inning:0-01-00-01-01-00-00-00-00-0
By inning:0-13-00-01-00-20-12-10-00-1
By inning:0-11-10-00-10-00-00-00-00-—
By inning:0-20-00-02-00-00-20-30-00-—
By inning:0-40-00-00-00-00-00-00-01-—
Head-to-head summary
10 meetings — Chiba Lotte Marines 4 / Orix Buffaloes 6. Average total: 6.9.
Model output
{
"expected_runs": {
"team_1": 4.66,
"team_2": 3.94,
"total": 8.61
},
"win_probability": {
"team_1": 54,
"team_2": 46
},
"form": {
"team_1": {
"played": 10,
"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_rate": 0.5,
"avg_rf": 4.5,
"avg_ra": 4.6,
"w_avg_rf": 4.61,
"w_avg_ra": 4.85,
"run_rate": 9.1,
"blowout_rate": 0.3
},
"team_2": {
"played": 10,
"wins": 4,
"losses": 6,
"win_rate": 0.4,
"avg_rf": 2.7,
"avg_ra": 4.4,
"w_avg_rf": 2.84,
"w_avg_ra": 4.51,
"run_rate": 7.1,
"blowout_rate": 0.1
}
},
"h2h_summary": {
"considered": 10,
"t1_wins": 4,
"t2_wins": 6,
"t1_win_rate": 0.4,
"avg_total": 6.9
},
"confidence": 68,
"winner": {
"team": "Chiba Lotte Marines",
"probability": 54,
"margin_runs": 0.72,
"opponent": "Orix Buffaloes",
"opponent_probability": 46
},
"total_runs": {
"projected_total": 8.61,
"team_1_proj": 4.66,
"team_2_proj": 3.94,
"market": null
},
"first_five": {
"team_1": 3.66,
"team_2": 2.61,
"total": 6.27,
"source": "projected_from_form"
},
"inning_scores": null,
"inning_prediction": {
"home": [
0.46,
0.15,
1.11,
1.79,
0.15,
0.42,
0.33,
0.24,
0
],
"away": [
0.2,
0.49,
0,
0.85,
1.07,
0.78,
0,
0.36,
0.2
],
"per_inning_total": [
0.66,
0.64,
1.11,
2.64,
1.22,
1.2,
0.33,
0.6,
0.2
],
"first_five": {
"home": 3.66,
"away": 2.61,
"total": 6.27
},
"source": "form",
"t1_samples": 5,
"t2_samples": 5,
"t1_fractions": {
"i1": 0.098,
"i2": 0.033,
"i3": 0.239,
"i4": 0.384,
"i5": 0.033,
"i6": 0.09,
"i7": 0.07,
"i8": 0.052,
"i9": 0
},
"t2_fractions": {
"i1": 0.05,
"i2": 0.125,
"i3": 0,
"i4": 0.215,
"i5": 0.27,
"i6": 0.198,
"i7": 0,
"i8": 0.092,
"i9": 0.05
}
},
"predictions": {
"safe": null,
"high_risk": {
"market": "moneyline (underdog)",
"pick": "Orix Buffaloes +ML",
"team": "Orix Buffaloes",
"win_prob": 46,
"confidence": 68,
"reason": "Orix Buffaloes has a live shot (46%) at a price the market may shade."
}
},
"model_version": "v1-2026-06-baseball"
}Full match data
{
"sport": "baseball",
"league": "NPB",
"country": "Japan",
"match": "Chiba Lotte Marines vs Orix Buffaloes",
"date": "2026-09-22",
"time": "12:00",
"status": "",
"score": null,
"innings": null,
"match_stats": null,
"team_1": {
"name": "Chiba Lotte Marines",
"last_10_matches": [
{
"date": "15.09.26",
"home": "Nippon Ham Fighters",
"away": "Chiba Lotte Marines",
"score": "6-7",
"home_points": 6,
"away_points": 7,
"total_points": 13,
"home_won": false,
"innings": {
"home": [
0,
0,
0,
0,
4,
2,
0,
0,
1
],
"away": [
0,
1,
1,
0,
1,
1,
1,
1,
0
]
}
},
{
"date": "13.09.26",
"home": "Fukuoka S. Hawks",
"away": "Chiba Lotte Marines",
"score": "7-4",
"home_points": 7,
"away_points": 4,
"total_points": 11,
"home_won": true,
"innings": {
"home": [
0,
0,
1,
0,
3,
0,
0,
0,
0
],
"away": [
0,
0,
3,
2,
0,
2,
0,
0
]
}
},
{
"date": "12.09.26",
"home": "Fukuoka S. Hawks",
"away": "Chiba Lotte Marines",
"score": "5-4",
"home_points": 5,
"away_points": 4,
"total_points": 9,
"home_won": true,
"innings": {
"home": [
1,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
1,
0,
2
],
"away": [
2,
0,
3,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0
]
}
},
{
"date": "11.09.26",
"home": "Fukuoka S. Hawks",
"away": "Chiba Lotte Marines",
"score": "11-1",
"home_points": 11,
"away_points": 1,
"total_points": 12,
"home_won": true,
"innings": {
"home": [
1,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0
],
"away": [
1,
0,
0,
7,
0,
0,
2,
1
]
}
},
{
"date": "10.09.26",
"home": "Chiba Lotte Marines",
"away": "Rakuten Gold. Eagles",
"score": "6-1",
"home_points": 6,
"away_points": 1,
"total_points": 7,
"home_won": true,
"innings": {
"home": [
0,
0,
0,
1,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0
],
"away": [
0,
4,
0,
0,
0,
0,
2,
0
]
}
},
{
"date": "09.09.26",
"home": "Chiba Lotte Marines",
"away": "Rakuten Gold. Eagles",
"score": "10-4",
"home_points": 10,
"away_points": 4,
"total_points": 14,
"home_won": true,
"innings": null
},
{
"date": "08.09.26",
"home": "Chiba Lotte Marines",
"away": "Rakuten Gold. Eagles",
"score": "3-2",
"home_points": 3,
"away_points": 2,
"total_points": 5,
"home_won": true,
"innings": null
},
{
"date": "06.09.26",
"home": "Orix Buffaloes",
"away": "Chiba Lotte Marines",
"score": "0-3",
"home_points": 0,
"away_points": 3,
"total_points": 3,
"home_won": false,
"innings": null
},
{
"date": "05.09.26",
"home": "Orix Buffaloes",
"away": "Chiba Lotte Marines",
"score": "7-6",
"home_points": 7,
"away_points": 6,
"total_points": 13,
"home_won": true,
"innings": null
},
{
"date": "04.09.26",
"home": "Orix Buffaloes",
"away": "Chiba Lotte Marines",
"score": "3-1",
"home_points": 3,
"away_points": 1,
"total_points": 4,
"home_won": true,
"innings": null
}
]
},
"team_2": {
"name": "Orix Buffaloes",
"last_10_matches": [
{
"date": "15.09.26",
"home": "Orix Buffaloes",
"away": "Fukuoka S. Hawks",
"score": "3-5",
"home_points": 3,
"away_points": 5,
"total_points": 8,
"home_won": false,
"innings": {
"home": [
0,
0,
0,
1,
3,
1,
0,
0,
0
],
"away": [
0,
0,
0,
0,
1,
1,
1,
0,
0
]
}
},
{
"date": "12.09.26",
"home": "Orix Buffaloes",
"away": "Rakuten Gold. Eagles",
"score": "5-3",
"home_points": 5,
"away_points": 3,
"total_points": 8,
"home_won": true,
"innings": {
"home": [
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
2,
0,
1,
0
],
"away": [
0,
2,
1,
0,
0,
0,
2,
0
]
}
},
{
"date": "11.09.26",
"home": "Orix Buffaloes",
"away": "Seibu Lions",
"score": "5-4",
"home_points": 5,
"away_points": 4,
"total_points": 9,
"home_won": true,
"innings": {
"home": [
1,
0,
0,
0,
3,
0,
0,
0,
0
],
"away": [
0,
0,
0,
2,
1,
2,
0,
0
]
}
},
{
"date": "10.09.26",
"home": "Orix Buffaloes",
"away": "Seibu Lions",
"score": "4-8",
"home_points": 4,
"away_points": 8,
"total_points": 12,
"home_won": false,
"innings": {
"home": [
0,
4,
0,
2,
0,
0,
0,
0,
2
],
"away": [
1,
0,
0,
0,
2,
0,
0,
1,
0
]
}
},
{
"date": "09.09.26",
"home": "Orix Buffaloes",
"away": "Seibu Lions",
"score": "0-8",
"home_points": 0,
"away_points": 8,
"total_points": 8,
"home_won": false,
"innings": {
"home": [
0,
1,
0,
5,
0,
1,
0,
1,
0
],
"away": [
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0
]
}
},
{
"date": "08.09.26",
"home": "Orix Buffaloes",
"away": "Seibu Lions",
"score": "0-2",
"home_points": 0,
"away_points": 2,
"total_points": 2,
"home_won": false,
"innings": null
},
{
"date": "06.09.26",
"home": "Orix Buffaloes",
"away": "Chiba Lotte Marines",
"score": "0-3",
"home_points": 0,
"away_points": 3,
"total_points": 3,
"home_won": false,
"innings": null
},
{
"date": "05.09.26",
"home": "Orix Buffaloes",
"away": "Chiba Lotte Marines",
"score": "7-6",
"home_points": 7,
"away_points": 6,
"total_points": 13,
"home_won": true,
"innings": null
},
{
"date": "04.09.26",
"home": "Orix Buffaloes",
"away": "Chiba Lotte Marines",
"score": "3-1",
"home_points": 3,
"away_points": 1,
"total_points": 4,
"home_won": true,
"innings": null
},
{
"date": "02.09.26",
"home": "Rakuten Gold. Eagles",
"away": "Orix Buffaloes",
"score": "4-0",
"home_points": 4,
"away_points": 0,
"total_points": 4,
"home_won": true,
"innings": null
}
]
},
"head_to_head": {
"last_10_matches": [
{
"date": "06.09.26",
"home": "Orix Buffaloes",
"away": "Chiba Lotte Marines",
"score": "0-3",
"home_points": 0,
"away_points": 3,
"total_points": 3,
"home_won": false,
"innings": {
"home": [
0,
1,
0,
1,
1,
0,
0,
0,
0
],
"away": [
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0
]
}
},
{
"date": "05.09.26",
"home": "Orix Buffaloes",
"away": "Chiba Lotte Marines",
"score": "7-6",
"home_points": 7,
"away_points": 6,
"total_points": 13,
"home_won": true,
"innings": {
"home": [
0,
3,
0,
1,
0,
0,
2,
0,
0
],
"away": [
1,
0,
0,
0,
2,
1,
1,
0,
1
]
}
},
{
"date": "04.09.26",
"home": "Orix Buffaloes",
"away": "Chiba Lotte Marines",
"score": "3-1",
"home_points": 3,
"away_points": 1,
"total_points": 4,
"home_won": true,
"innings": {
"home": [
0,
1,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0
],
"away": [
1,
1,
0,
1,
0,
0,
0,
0
]
}
},
{
"date": "09.08.26",
"home": "Chiba Lotte Marines",
"away": "Orix Buffaloes",
"score": "7-2",
"home_points": 7,
"away_points": 2,
"total_points": 9,
"home_won": true,
"innings": {
"home": [
0,
0,
0,
2,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0
],
"away": [
2,
0,
0,
0,
0,
2,
3,
0
]
}
},
{
"date": "08.08.26",
"home": "Chiba Lotte Marines",
"away": "Orix Buffaloes",
"score": "4-1",
"home_points": 4,
"away_points": 1,
"total_points": 5,
"home_won": true,
"innings": {
"home": [
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
1
],
"away": [
4,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0
]
}
},
{
"date": "07.08.26",
"home": "Chiba Lotte Marines",
"away": "Orix Buffaloes",
"score": "2-6",
"home_points": 2,
"away_points": 6,
"total_points": 8,
"home_won": false,
"innings": null
},
{
"date": "26.07.26",
"home": "Orix Buffaloes",
"away": "Chiba Lotte Marines",
"score": "2-3",
"home_points": 2,
"away_points": 3,
"total_points": 5,
"home_won": false,
"innings": null
},
{
"date": "25.07.26",
"home": "Orix Buffaloes",
"away": "Chiba Lotte Marines",
"score": "5-3",
"home_points": 5,
"away_points": 3,
"total_points": 8,
"home_won": true,
"innings": null
},
{
"date": "24.07.26",
"home": "Orix Buffaloes",
"away": "Chiba Lotte Marines",
"score": "3-2",
"home_points": 3,
"away_points": 2,
"total_points": 5,
"home_won": true,
"innings": null
},
{
"date": "12.07.26",
"home": "Chiba Lotte Marines",
"away": "Orix Buffaloes",
"score": "2-7",
"home_points": 2,
"away_points": 7,
"total_points": 9,
"home_won": false,
"innings": null
}
]
},
"odds": null,
"analysis": {
"expected_runs": {
"team_1": 4.66,
"team_2": 3.94,
"total": 8.61
},
"win_probability": {
"team_1": 54,
"team_2": 46
},
"form": {
"team_1": {
"played": 10,
"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_rate": 0.5,
"avg_rf": 4.5,
"avg_ra": 4.6,
"w_avg_rf": 4.61,
"w_avg_ra": 4.85,
"run_rate": 9.1,
"blowout_rate": 0.3
},
"team_2": {
"played": 10,
"wins": 4,
"losses": 6,
"win_rate": 0.4,
"avg_rf": 2.7,
"avg_ra": 4.4,
"w_avg_rf": 2.84,
"w_avg_ra": 4.51,
"run_rate": 7.1,
"blowout_rate": 0.1
}
},
"h2h_summary": {
"considered": 10,
"t1_wins": 4,
"t2_wins": 6,
"t1_win_rate": 0.4,
"avg_total": 6.9
},
"confidence": 68,
"winner": {
"team": "Chiba Lotte Marines",
"probability": 54,
"margin_runs": 0.72,
"opponent": "Orix Buffaloes",
"opponent_probability": 46
},
"total_runs": {
"projected_total": 8.61,
"team_1_proj": 4.66,
"team_2_proj": 3.94,
"market": null
},
"first_five": {
"team_1": 3.66,
"team_2": 2.61,
"total": 6.27,
"source": "projected_from_form"
},
"inning_scores": null,
"inning_prediction": {
"home": [
0.46,
0.15,
1.11,
1.79,
0.15,
0.42,
0.33,
0.24,
0
],
"away": [
0.2,
0.49,
0,
0.85,
1.07,
0.78,
0,
0.36,
0.2
],
"per_inning_total": [
0.66,
0.64,
1.11,
2.64,
1.22,
1.2,
0.33,
0.6,
0.2
],
"first_five": {
"home": 3.66,
"away": 2.61,
"total": 6.27
},
"source": "form",
"t1_samples": 5,
"t2_samples": 5,
"t1_fractions": {
"i1": 0.098,
"i2": 0.033,
"i3": 0.239,
"i4": 0.384,
"i5": 0.033,
"i6": 0.09,
"i7": 0.07,
"i8": 0.052,
"i9": 0
},
"t2_fractions": {
"i1": 0.05,
"i2": 0.125,
"i3": 0,
"i4": 0.215,
"i5": 0.27,
"i6": 0.198,
"i7": 0,
"i8": 0.092,
"i9": 0.05
}
},
"predictions": {
"safe": null,
"high_risk": {
"market": "moneyline (underdog)",
"pick": "Orix Buffaloes +ML",
"team": "Orix Buffaloes",
"win_prob": 46,
"confidence": 68,
"reason": "Orix Buffaloes has a live shot (46%) at a price the market may shade."
}
},
"model_version": "v1-2026-06-baseball"
},
"model": {
"win_probability": {
"team_1": 54,
"team_2": 46
},
"prediction_quality": "medium",
"expected_runs": {
"team_1": 4.66,
"team_2": 3.94,
"total": 8.61
},
"predicted_winner": "Chiba Lotte Marines",
"model_version": "v1-2026-06-baseball"
}
}Prediction alerts
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