Baseball · MLB · Usa
New York Mets vs Baltimore Orioles
Thursday, 17 September 2026
Upcoming. The scheduled start is still ahead. Match status has not been confirmed live.New York Mets vs Baltimore Orioles in MLB (Baseball) on Thursday, 17 September 2026. Model prediction: New York Mets 57% vs Baltimore Orioles 43%. See the head-to-head record, recent form and odds. Predictions and stats update daily.
Usa • MLB
New York Metsvs
Baltimore Orioles17 Sept • 02:10
Upcoming. The scheduled start is still ahead. Match status has not been confirmed live.
Predicted Winner
New York Mets
57%to win
by ~1.17 runs vs Baltimore Ori…
Projected Total
10.08runs
5.62 – 4.46
no market line
First 5 (F5)
5.96runs
3.42 – 2.54
model projection
Inning Line Score
projected| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Mets | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 1.0 | 0.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| Baltimore Orioles | 0.6 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
| Tot | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 1.9 | 0.2 | 1.4 | 0.7 |
from last 5+5 games
New York Mets
Last 10: 6–4 (60%)
RPG: 6.7 — Allowed: 5.2 — Run env: 11.9
Baltimore Orioles
Last 10: 4–6 (40%)
RPG: 3.4 — Allowed: 4.7 — Run env: 8.1
New York Mets Form
New York Mets
L0d
L2d
W3d
L3d
W5d
W6d
W8d
W9d
L10d
W10d
By inning:0-01-00-00-10-00-00-01-00-0
By inning:0-10-00-10-00-00-00-00-00-—
By inning:1-02-01-00-11-00-11-05-01-0
By inning:0-11-30-00-00-10-01-01-11-—
By inning:0-06-02-00-30-00-56-11-20-3
Baltimore Orioles Form
Baltimore Orioles
W0d
L2d
L3d
W3d
W5d
L6d
W8d
L9d
L9d
L10d
By inning:0-01-00-00-10-00-00-01-00-0
By inning:0-00-10-00-01-30-00-00-40-—
By inning:0-20-00-31-00-00-12-10-00-—
By inning:1-05-00-00-10-00-11-00-00-2
By inning:2-00-00-80-00-03-10-00-00-—
Head-to-Head
Last 10
By inning:0-01-00-00-10-00-00-01-00-0
By inning:2-00-30-01-00-20-20-00-00-—
By inning:0-00-00-00-01-00-00-00-30-—
By inning:0-00-00-10-00-02-40-14-00-0
By inning:0-00-00-10-00-12-00-11-00-1
Head-to-head summary
10 meetings — New York Mets 3 / Baltimore Orioles 7. Average total: 8.3.
Model output
{
"expected_runs": {
"team_1": 5.62,
"team_2": 4.46,
"total": 10.08
},
"win_probability": {
"team_1": 57,
"team_2": 43
},
"form": {
"team_1": {
"played": 10,
"wins": 6,
"losses": 4,
"win_rate": 0.6,
"avg_rf": 6.7,
"avg_ra": 5.2,
"w_avg_rf": 6.43,
"w_avg_ra": 4.97,
"run_rate": 11.9,
"blowout_rate": 0.2
},
"team_2": {
"played": 10,
"wins": 4,
"losses": 6,
"win_rate": 0.4,
"avg_rf": 3.4,
"avg_ra": 4.7,
"w_avg_rf": 3.54,
"w_avg_ra": 4.82,
"run_rate": 8.1,
"blowout_rate": 0.2
}
},
"h2h_summary": {
"considered": 10,
"t1_wins": 3,
"t2_wins": 7,
"t1_win_rate": 0.3,
"avg_total": 8.3
},
"confidence": 70,
"winner": {
"team": "New York Mets",
"probability": 57,
"margin_runs": 1.17,
"opponent": "Baltimore Orioles",
"opponent_probability": 43
},
"total_runs": {
"projected_total": 10.08,
"team_1_proj": 5.62,
"team_2_proj": 4.46,
"market": null
},
"first_five": {
"team_1": 3.42,
"team_2": 2.54,
"total": 5.96,
"source": "projected_from_form"
},
"inning_scores": null,
"inning_prediction": {
"home": [
0.75,
1.12,
0.56,
0.8,
0.19,
0.96,
0.08,
0.91,
0.24
],
"away": [
0.61,
0.11,
0.38,
1.11,
0.33,
0.89,
0.13,
0.45,
0.45
],
"per_inning_total": [
1.36,
1.23,
0.94,
1.91,
0.52,
1.85,
0.21,
1.36,
0.69
],
"first_five": {
"home": 3.42,
"away": 2.54,
"total": 5.96
},
"source": "form",
"t1_samples": 5,
"t2_samples": 5,
"t1_fractions": {
"i1": 0.133,
"i2": 0.2,
"i3": 0.1,
"i4": 0.143,
"i5": 0.033,
"i6": 0.171,
"i7": 0.014,
"i8": 0.162,
"i9": 0.043
},
"t2_fractions": {
"i1": 0.137,
"i2": 0.025,
"i3": 0.086,
"i4": 0.25,
"i5": 0.075,
"i6": 0.199,
"i7": 0.029,
"i8": 0.1,
"i9": 0.1
}
},
"predictions": {
"safe": null,
"high_risk": {
"market": "moneyline (underdog)",
"pick": "Baltimore Orioles +ML",
"team": "Baltimore Orioles",
"win_prob": 43,
"confidence": 70,
"reason": "Baltimore Orioles has a live shot (43%) at a price the market may shade."
}
},
"model_version": "v1-2026-06-baseball"
}Full match data
{
"sport": "baseball",
"league": "MLB",
"country": "Usa",
"match": "New York Mets vs Baltimore Orioles",
"date": "2026-09-17",
"time": "02:10",
"status": null,
"score": null,
"innings": null,
"match_stats": null,
"team_1": {
"name": "New York Mets",
"last_10_matches": [
{
"date": "15.09.26",
"home": "New York Mets",
"away": "Baltimore Orioles",
"score": "1-2",
"home_points": 1,
"away_points": 2,
"total_points": 3,
"home_won": false,
"innings": {
"home": [
0,
1,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
1,
0
],
"away": [
0,
0,
0,
1,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0
]
}
},
{
"date": "13.09.26",
"home": "New York Yankees",
"away": "New York Mets",
"score": "2-0",
"home_points": 2,
"away_points": 0,
"total_points": 2,
"home_won": true,
"innings": {
"home": [
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0
],
"away": [
1,
0,
1,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0
]
}
},
{
"date": "12.09.26",
"home": "New York Yankees",
"away": "New York Mets",
"score": "2-12",
"home_points": 2,
"away_points": 12,
"total_points": 14,
"home_won": false,
"innings": {
"home": [
1,
2,
1,
0,
1,
0,
1,
5,
1
],
"away": [
0,
0,
0,
1,
0,
1,
0,
0,
0
]
}
},
{
"date": "12.09.26",
"home": "New York Yankees",
"away": "New York Mets",
"score": "6-4",
"home_points": 6,
"away_points": 4,
"total_points": 10,
"home_won": true,
"innings": {
"home": [
0,
1,
0,
0,
0,
0,
1,
1,
1
],
"away": [
1,
3,
0,
0,
1,
0,
0,
1
]
}
},
{
"date": "10.09.26",
"home": "Miami Marlins",
"away": "New York Mets",
"score": "14-15",
"home_points": 14,
"away_points": 15,
"total_points": 29,
"home_won": false,
"innings": {
"home": [
0,
6,
2,
0,
0,
0,
6,
1,
0
],
"away": [
0,
0,
0,
3,
0,
5,
1,
2,
3
]
}
},
{
"date": "09.09.26",
"home": "Miami Marlins",
"away": "New York Mets",
"score": "5-7",
"home_points": 5,
"away_points": 7,
"total_points": 12,
"home_won": false,
"innings": null
},
{
"date": "07.09.26",
"home": "Miami Marlins",
"away": "New York Mets",
"score": "4-9",
"home_points": 4,
"away_points": 9,
"total_points": 13,
"home_won": false,
"innings": null
},
{
"date": "06.09.26",
"home": "New York Mets",
"away": "San Francisco Giants",
"score": "4-2",
"home_points": 4,
"away_points": 2,
"total_points": 6,
"home_won": true,
"innings": null
},
{
"date": "05.09.26",
"home": "New York Mets",
"away": "San Francisco Giants",
"score": "5-9",
"home_points": 5,
"away_points": 9,
"total_points": 14,
"home_won": false,
"innings": null
},
{
"date": "05.09.26",
"home": "New York Mets",
"away": "San Francisco Giants",
"score": "10-6",
"home_points": 10,
"away_points": 6,
"total_points": 16,
"home_won": true,
"innings": null
}
]
},
"team_2": {
"name": "Baltimore Orioles",
"last_10_matches": [
{
"date": "15.09.26",
"home": "New York Mets",
"away": "Baltimore Orioles",
"score": "1-2",
"home_points": 1,
"away_points": 2,
"total_points": 3,
"home_won": false,
"innings": {
"home": [
0,
1,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
1,
0
],
"away": [
0,
0,
0,
1,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0
]
}
},
{
"date": "13.09.26",
"home": "Toronto Blue Jays",
"away": "Baltimore Orioles",
"score": "8-1",
"home_points": 8,
"away_points": 1,
"total_points": 9,
"home_won": true,
"innings": {
"home": [
0,
0,
0,
0,
1,
0,
0,
0,
0
],
"away": [
0,
1,
0,
0,
3,
0,
0,
4
]
}
},
{
"date": "12.09.26",
"home": "Toronto Blue Jays",
"away": "Baltimore Orioles",
"score": "7-3",
"home_points": 7,
"away_points": 3,
"total_points": 10,
"home_won": true,
"innings": {
"home": [
0,
0,
0,
1,
0,
0,
2,
0,
0
],
"away": [
2,
0,
3,
0,
0,
1,
1,
0
]
}
},
{
"date": "12.09.26",
"home": "Toronto Blue Jays",
"away": "Baltimore Orioles",
"score": "4-7",
"home_points": 4,
"away_points": 7,
"total_points": 11,
"home_won": false,
"innings": {
"home": [
1,
5,
0,
0,
0,
0,
1,
0,
0
],
"away": [
0,
0,
0,
1,
0,
1,
0,
0,
2
]
}
},
{
"date": "10.09.26",
"home": "Baltimore Orioles",
"away": "Cleveland Guardians",
"score": "9-5",
"home_points": 9,
"away_points": 5,
"total_points": 14,
"home_won": true,
"innings": {
"home": [
2,
0,
0,
0,
0,
3,
0,
0,
0
],
"away": [
0,
0,
8,
0,
0,
1,
0,
0
]
}
},
{
"date": "09.09.26",
"home": "Baltimore Orioles",
"away": "Cleveland Guardians",
"score": "5-9",
"home_points": 5,
"away_points": 9,
"total_points": 14,
"home_won": false,
"innings": null
},
{
"date": "07.09.26",
"home": "Baltimore Orioles",
"away": "Cleveland Guardians",
"score": "6-4",
"home_points": 6,
"away_points": 4,
"total_points": 10,
"home_won": true,
"innings": null
},
{
"date": "06.09.26",
"home": "Baltimore Orioles",
"away": "Boston Red Sox",
"score": "1-3",
"home_points": 1,
"away_points": 3,
"total_points": 4,
"home_won": false,
"innings": null
},
{
"date": "06.09.26",
"home": "Baltimore Orioles",
"away": "Boston Red Sox",
"score": "0-5",
"home_points": 0,
"away_points": 5,
"total_points": 5,
"home_won": false,
"innings": null
},
{
"date": "05.09.26",
"home": "Baltimore Orioles",
"away": "Boston Red Sox",
"score": "0-1",
"home_points": 0,
"away_points": 1,
"total_points": 1,
"home_won": false,
"innings": null
}
]
},
"head_to_head": {
"last_10_matches": [
{
"date": "15.09.26",
"home": "New York Mets",
"away": "Baltimore Orioles",
"score": "1-2",
"home_points": 1,
"away_points": 2,
"total_points": 3,
"home_won": false,
"innings": {
"home": [
0,
1,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
1,
0
],
"away": [
0,
0,
0,
1,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0
]
}
},
{
"date": "11.07.25",
"home": "Baltimore Orioles",
"away": "New York Mets",
"score": "7-3",
"home_points": 7,
"away_points": 3,
"total_points": 10,
"home_won": true,
"innings": {
"home": [
2,
0,
0,
1,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0
],
"away": [
0,
3,
0,
0,
2,
2,
0,
0
]
}
},
{
"date": "10.07.25",
"home": "Baltimore Orioles",
"away": "New York Mets",
"score": "3-1",
"home_points": 3,
"away_points": 1,
"total_points": 4,
"home_won": true,
"innings": {
"home": [
0,
0,
0,
0,
1,
0,
0,
0,
0
],
"away": [
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
3
]
}
},
{
"date": "09.07.25",
"home": "Baltimore Orioles",
"away": "New York Mets",
"score": "6-7",
"home_points": 6,
"away_points": 7,
"total_points": 13,
"home_won": false,
"innings": {
"home": [
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
2,
0,
4,
0
],
"away": [
0,
0,
1,
0,
0,
4,
1,
0,
0
]
}
},
{
"date": "21.08.24",
"home": "New York Mets",
"away": "Baltimore Orioles",
"score": "4-3",
"home_points": 4,
"away_points": 3,
"total_points": 7,
"home_won": true,
"innings": {
"home": [
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
2,
0,
1,
0
],
"away": [
0,
0,
1,
0,
1,
0,
1,
0,
1
]
}
},
{
"date": "21.08.24",
"home": "New York Mets",
"away": "Baltimore Orioles",
"score": "5-9",
"home_points": 5,
"away_points": 9,
"total_points": 14,
"home_won": false,
"innings": null
},
{
"date": "20.08.24",
"home": "New York Mets",
"away": "Baltimore Orioles",
"score": "4-3",
"home_points": 4,
"away_points": 3,
"total_points": 7,
"home_won": true,
"innings": null
},
{
"date": "06.08.23",
"home": "Baltimore Orioles",
"away": "New York Mets",
"score": "2-0",
"home_points": 2,
"away_points": 0,
"total_points": 2,
"home_won": true,
"innings": null
},
{
"date": "06.08.23",
"home": "Baltimore Orioles",
"away": "New York Mets",
"score": "7-3",
"home_points": 7,
"away_points": 3,
"total_points": 10,
"home_won": true,
"innings": null
},
{
"date": "05.08.23",
"home": "Baltimore Orioles",
"away": "New York Mets",
"score": "10-3",
"home_points": 10,
"away_points": 3,
"total_points": 13,
"home_won": true,
"innings": null
}
]
},
"odds": {
"match_winner": {
"home": null,
"away": null,
"vig_pct": null
}
},
"analysis": {
"expected_runs": {
"team_1": 5.62,
"team_2": 4.46,
"total": 10.08
},
"win_probability": {
"team_1": 57,
"team_2": 43
},
"form": {
"team_1": {
"played": 10,
"wins": 6,
"losses": 4,
"win_rate": 0.6,
"avg_rf": 6.7,
"avg_ra": 5.2,
"w_avg_rf": 6.43,
"w_avg_ra": 4.97,
"run_rate": 11.9,
"blowout_rate": 0.2
},
"team_2": {
"played": 10,
"wins": 4,
"losses": 6,
"win_rate": 0.4,
"avg_rf": 3.4,
"avg_ra": 4.7,
"w_avg_rf": 3.54,
"w_avg_ra": 4.82,
"run_rate": 8.1,
"blowout_rate": 0.2
}
},
"h2h_summary": {
"considered": 10,
"t1_wins": 3,
"t2_wins": 7,
"t1_win_rate": 0.3,
"avg_total": 8.3
},
"confidence": 70,
"winner": {
"team": "New York Mets",
"probability": 57,
"margin_runs": 1.17,
"opponent": "Baltimore Orioles",
"opponent_probability": 43
},
"total_runs": {
"projected_total": 10.08,
"team_1_proj": 5.62,
"team_2_proj": 4.46,
"market": null
},
"first_five": {
"team_1": 3.42,
"team_2": 2.54,
"total": 5.96,
"source": "projected_from_form"
},
"inning_scores": null,
"inning_prediction": {
"home": [
0.75,
1.12,
0.56,
0.8,
0.19,
0.96,
0.08,
0.91,
0.24
],
"away": [
0.61,
0.11,
0.38,
1.11,
0.33,
0.89,
0.13,
0.45,
0.45
],
"per_inning_total": [
1.36,
1.23,
0.94,
1.91,
0.52,
1.85,
0.21,
1.36,
0.69
],
"first_five": {
"home": 3.42,
"away": 2.54,
"total": 5.96
},
"source": "form",
"t1_samples": 5,
"t2_samples": 5,
"t1_fractions": {
"i1": 0.133,
"i2": 0.2,
"i3": 0.1,
"i4": 0.143,
"i5": 0.033,
"i6": 0.171,
"i7": 0.014,
"i8": 0.162,
"i9": 0.043
},
"t2_fractions": {
"i1": 0.137,
"i2": 0.025,
"i3": 0.086,
"i4": 0.25,
"i5": 0.075,
"i6": 0.199,
"i7": 0.029,
"i8": 0.1,
"i9": 0.1
}
},
"predictions": {
"safe": null,
"high_risk": {
"market": "moneyline (underdog)",
"pick": "Baltimore Orioles +ML",
"team": "Baltimore Orioles",
"win_prob": 43,
"confidence": 70,
"reason": "Baltimore Orioles has a live shot (43%) at a price the market may shade."
}
},
"model_version": "v1-2026-06-baseball"
},
"model": {
"win_probability": {
"team_1": 57,
"team_2": 43
},
"prediction_quality": "medium",
"expected_runs": {
"team_1": 5.62,
"team_2": 4.46,
"total": 10.08
},
"predicted_winner": "New York Mets",
"model_version": "v1-2026-06-baseball"
}
}Prediction alerts
Know when the next pick goes live.
Email requires confirmation. Telegram requires pressing Start. Unsubscribe any time.
Explore more matches and live updates on the Baseball board.