Baseball · MLB · Usa

New York Mets vs Baltimore Orioles

Thursday, 17 September 2026

Upcoming. The scheduled start is still ahead. Match status has not been confirmed live.

New York Mets vs Baltimore Orioles in MLB (Baseball) on Thursday, 17 September 2026. Model prediction: New York Mets 57% vs Baltimore Orioles 43%. See the head-to-head record, recent form and odds. Predictions and stats update daily.

UsaMLB
New York MetsNew York MetsvsBaltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles
17 Sept02:10
Upcoming. The scheduled start is still ahead. Match status has not been confirmed live.
Predicted Winner
New York Mets
57%to win
by ~1.17 runs vs Baltimore Ori…
Projected Total
10.08runs
5.624.46
no market line
First 5 (F5)
5.96runs
3.422.54
model projection
Inning Line Score
projected
123456789
New York Mets0.81.10.60.80.21.00.10.90.2
Baltimore Orioles0.60.10.41.10.30.90.10.50.5
Tot1.41.20.91.90.51.90.21.40.7
from last 5+5 games
New York Mets
Last 10: 64 (60%)
RPG: 6.7 — Allowed: 5.2 — Run env: 11.9
Baltimore Orioles
Last 10: 46 (40%)
RPG: 3.4 — Allowed: 4.7 — Run env: 8.1
New York Mets Form
New York Mets
L0d
L2d
W3d
L3d
W5d
W6d
W8d
W9d
L10d
W10d
6W · 4L
15 Sept
New York Mets vs Baltimore Orioles
1-2L
By inning:0-01-00-00-10-00-00-01-00-0
13 Sept
New York Yankees vs New York Mets
2-0L
By inning:0-10-00-10-00-00-00-00-00-
12 Sept
New York Yankees vs New York Mets
2-12W
By inning:1-02-01-00-11-00-11-05-01-0
12 Sept
New York Yankees vs New York Mets
6-4L
By inning:0-11-30-00-00-10-01-01-11-
10 Sept
Miami Marlins vs New York Mets
14-15W
By inning:0-06-02-00-30-00-56-11-20-3
09 Sept
Miami Marlins vs New York Mets
5-7W
07 Sept
Miami Marlins vs New York Mets
4-9W
06 Sept
New York Mets vs San Francisco Giants
4-2W
05 Sept
New York Mets vs San Francisco Giants
5-9L
05 Sept
New York Mets vs San Francisco Giants
10-6W
Baltimore Orioles Form
Baltimore Orioles
W0d
L2d
L3d
W3d
W5d
L6d
W8d
L9d
L9d
L10d
4W · 6L
15 Sept
New York Mets vs Baltimore Orioles
1-2W
By inning:0-01-00-00-10-00-00-01-00-0
13 Sept
Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles
8-1L
By inning:0-00-10-00-01-30-00-00-40-
12 Sept
Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles
7-3L
By inning:0-20-00-31-00-00-12-10-00-
12 Sept
Toronto Blue Jays vs Baltimore Orioles
4-7W
By inning:1-05-00-00-10-00-11-00-00-2
10 Sept
Baltimore Orioles vs Cleveland Guardians
9-5W
By inning:2-00-00-80-00-03-10-00-00-
09 Sept
Baltimore Orioles vs Cleveland Guardians
5-9L
07 Sept
Baltimore Orioles vs Cleveland Guardians
6-4W
06 Sept
Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox
1-3L
06 Sept
Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox
0-5L
05 Sept
Baltimore Orioles vs Boston Red Sox
0-1L
Head-to-Head
Last 10
15 Sept
New York Mets vs Baltimore Orioles
1-2
By inning:0-01-00-00-10-00-00-01-00-0
11 Jul
Baltimore Orioles vs New York Mets
7-3
By inning:2-00-30-01-00-20-20-00-00-
10 Jul
Baltimore Orioles vs New York Mets
3-1
By inning:0-00-00-00-01-00-00-00-30-
09 Jul
Baltimore Orioles vs New York Mets
6-7
By inning:0-00-00-10-00-02-40-14-00-0
21 Aug
New York Mets vs Baltimore Orioles
4-3
By inning:0-00-00-10-00-12-00-11-00-1
21 Aug
New York Mets vs Baltimore Orioles
5-9
20 Aug
New York Mets vs Baltimore Orioles
4-3
06 Aug
Baltimore Orioles vs New York Mets
2-0
06 Aug
Baltimore Orioles vs New York Mets
7-3
05 Aug
Baltimore Orioles vs New York Mets
10-3
Head-to-head summary
10 meetings — New York Mets 3 / Baltimore Orioles 7. Average total: 8.3.
Model output
{
  "expected_runs": {
    "team_1": 5.62,
    "team_2": 4.46,
    "total": 10.08
  },
  "win_probability": {
    "team_1": 57,
    "team_2": 43
  },
  "form": {
    "team_1": {
      "played": 10,
      "wins": 6,
      "losses": 4,
      "win_rate": 0.6,
      "avg_rf": 6.7,
      "avg_ra": 5.2,
      "w_avg_rf": 6.43,
      "w_avg_ra": 4.97,
      "run_rate": 11.9,
      "blowout_rate": 0.2
    },
    "team_2": {
      "played": 10,
      "wins": 4,
      "losses": 6,
      "win_rate": 0.4,
      "avg_rf": 3.4,
      "avg_ra": 4.7,
      "w_avg_rf": 3.54,
      "w_avg_ra": 4.82,
      "run_rate": 8.1,
      "blowout_rate": 0.2
    }
  },
  "h2h_summary": {
    "considered": 10,
    "t1_wins": 3,
    "t2_wins": 7,
    "t1_win_rate": 0.3,
    "avg_total": 8.3
  },
  "confidence": 70,
  "winner": {
    "team": "New York Mets",
    "probability": 57,
    "margin_runs": 1.17,
    "opponent": "Baltimore Orioles",
    "opponent_probability": 43
  },
  "total_runs": {
    "projected_total": 10.08,
    "team_1_proj": 5.62,
    "team_2_proj": 4.46,
    "market": null
  },
  "first_five": {
    "team_1": 3.42,
    "team_2": 2.54,
    "total": 5.96,
    "source": "projected_from_form"
  },
  "inning_scores": null,
  "inning_prediction": {
    "home": [
      0.75,
      1.12,
      0.56,
      0.8,
      0.19,
      0.96,
      0.08,
      0.91,
      0.24
    ],
    "away": [
      0.61,
      0.11,
      0.38,
      1.11,
      0.33,
      0.89,
      0.13,
      0.45,
      0.45
    ],
    "per_inning_total": [
      1.36,
      1.23,
      0.94,
      1.91,
      0.52,
      1.85,
      0.21,
      1.36,
      0.69
    ],
    "first_five": {
      "home": 3.42,
      "away": 2.54,
      "total": 5.96
    },
    "source": "form",
    "t1_samples": 5,
    "t2_samples": 5,
    "t1_fractions": {
      "i1": 0.133,
      "i2": 0.2,
      "i3": 0.1,
      "i4": 0.143,
      "i5": 0.033,
      "i6": 0.171,
      "i7": 0.014,
      "i8": 0.162,
      "i9": 0.043
    },
    "t2_fractions": {
      "i1": 0.137,
      "i2": 0.025,
      "i3": 0.086,
      "i4": 0.25,
      "i5": 0.075,
      "i6": 0.199,
      "i7": 0.029,
      "i8": 0.1,
      "i9": 0.1
    }
  },
  "predictions": {
    "safe": null,
    "high_risk": {
      "market": "moneyline (underdog)",
      "pick": "Baltimore Orioles +ML",
      "team": "Baltimore Orioles",
      "win_prob": 43,
      "confidence": 70,
      "reason": "Baltimore Orioles has a live shot (43%) at a price the market may shade."
    }
  },
  "model_version": "v1-2026-06-baseball"
}
Full match data
{
  "sport": "baseball",
  "league": "MLB",
  "country": "Usa",
  "match": "New York Mets vs Baltimore Orioles",
  "date": "2026-09-17",
  "time": "02:10",
  "status": null,
  "score": null,
  "innings": null,
  "match_stats": null,
  "team_1": {
    "name": "New York Mets",
    "last_10_matches": [
      {
        "date": "15.09.26",
        "home": "New York Mets",
        "away": "Baltimore Orioles",
        "score": "1-2",
        "home_points": 1,
        "away_points": 2,
        "total_points": 3,
        "home_won": false,
        "innings": {
          "home": [
            0,
            1,
            0,
            0,
            0,
            0,
            0,
            1,
            0
          ],
          "away": [
            0,
            0,
            0,
            1,
            0,
            0,
            0,
            0,
            0
          ]
        }
      },
      {
        "date": "13.09.26",
        "home": "New York Yankees",
        "away": "New York Mets",
        "score": "2-0",
        "home_points": 2,
        "away_points": 0,
        "total_points": 2,
        "home_won": true,
        "innings": {
          "home": [
            0,
            0,
            0,
            0,
            0,
            0,
            0,
            0,
            0
          ],
          "away": [
            1,
            0,
            1,
            0,
            0,
            0,
            0,
            0
          ]
        }
      },
      {
        "date": "12.09.26",
        "home": "New York Yankees",
        "away": "New York Mets",
        "score": "2-12",
        "home_points": 2,
        "away_points": 12,
        "total_points": 14,
        "home_won": false,
        "innings": {
          "home": [
            1,
            2,
            1,
            0,
            1,
            0,
            1,
            5,
            1
          ],
          "away": [
            0,
            0,
            0,
            1,
            0,
            1,
            0,
            0,
            0
          ]
        }
      },
      {
        "date": "12.09.26",
        "home": "New York Yankees",
        "away": "New York Mets",
        "score": "6-4",
        "home_points": 6,
        "away_points": 4,
        "total_points": 10,
        "home_won": true,
        "innings": {
          "home": [
            0,
            1,
            0,
            0,
            0,
            0,
            1,
            1,
            1
          ],
          "away": [
            1,
            3,
            0,
            0,
            1,
            0,
            0,
            1
          ]
        }
      },
      {
        "date": "10.09.26",
        "home": "Miami Marlins",
        "away": "New York Mets",
        "score": "14-15",
        "home_points": 14,
        "away_points": 15,
        "total_points": 29,
        "home_won": false,
        "innings": {
          "home": [
            0,
            6,
            2,
            0,
            0,
            0,
            6,
            1,
            0
          ],
          "away": [
            0,
            0,
            0,
            3,
            0,
            5,
            1,
            2,
            3
          ]
        }
      },
      {
        "date": "09.09.26",
        "home": "Miami Marlins",
        "away": "New York Mets",
        "score": "5-7",
        "home_points": 5,
        "away_points": 7,
        "total_points": 12,
        "home_won": false,
        "innings": null
      },
      {
        "date": "07.09.26",
        "home": "Miami Marlins",
        "away": "New York Mets",
        "score": "4-9",
        "home_points": 4,
        "away_points": 9,
        "total_points": 13,
        "home_won": false,
        "innings": null
      },
      {
        "date": "06.09.26",
        "home": "New York Mets",
        "away": "San Francisco Giants",
        "score": "4-2",
        "home_points": 4,
        "away_points": 2,
        "total_points": 6,
        "home_won": true,
        "innings": null
      },
      {
        "date": "05.09.26",
        "home": "New York Mets",
        "away": "San Francisco Giants",
        "score": "5-9",
        "home_points": 5,
        "away_points": 9,
        "total_points": 14,
        "home_won": false,
        "innings": null
      },
      {
        "date": "05.09.26",
        "home": "New York Mets",
        "away": "San Francisco Giants",
        "score": "10-6",
        "home_points": 10,
        "away_points": 6,
        "total_points": 16,
        "home_won": true,
        "innings": null
      }
    ]
  },
  "team_2": {
    "name": "Baltimore Orioles",
    "last_10_matches": [
      {
        "date": "15.09.26",
        "home": "New York Mets",
        "away": "Baltimore Orioles",
        "score": "1-2",
        "home_points": 1,
        "away_points": 2,
        "total_points": 3,
        "home_won": false,
        "innings": {
          "home": [
            0,
            1,
            0,
            0,
            0,
            0,
            0,
            1,
            0
          ],
          "away": [
            0,
            0,
            0,
            1,
            0,
            0,
            0,
            0,
            0
          ]
        }
      },
      {
        "date": "13.09.26",
        "home": "Toronto Blue Jays",
        "away": "Baltimore Orioles",
        "score": "8-1",
        "home_points": 8,
        "away_points": 1,
        "total_points": 9,
        "home_won": true,
        "innings": {
          "home": [
            0,
            0,
            0,
            0,
            1,
            0,
            0,
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            0
          ],
          "away": [
            0,
            1,
            0,
            0,
            3,
            0,
            0,
            4
          ]
        }
      },
      {
        "date": "12.09.26",
        "home": "Toronto Blue Jays",
        "away": "Baltimore Orioles",
        "score": "7-3",
        "home_points": 7,
        "away_points": 3,
        "total_points": 10,
        "home_won": true,
        "innings": {
          "home": [
            0,
            0,
            0,
            1,
            0,
            0,
            2,
            0,
            0
          ],
          "away": [
            2,
            0,
            3,
            0,
            0,
            1,
            1,
            0
          ]
        }
      },
      {
        "date": "12.09.26",
        "home": "Toronto Blue Jays",
        "away": "Baltimore Orioles",
        "score": "4-7",
        "home_points": 4,
        "away_points": 7,
        "total_points": 11,
        "home_won": false,
        "innings": {
          "home": [
            1,
            5,
            0,
            0,
            0,
            0,
            1,
            0,
            0
          ],
          "away": [
            0,
            0,
            0,
            1,
            0,
            1,
            0,
            0,
            2
          ]
        }
      },
      {
        "date": "10.09.26",
        "home": "Baltimore Orioles",
        "away": "Cleveland Guardians",
        "score": "9-5",
        "home_points": 9,
        "away_points": 5,
        "total_points": 14,
        "home_won": true,
        "innings": {
          "home": [
            2,
            0,
            0,
            0,
            0,
            3,
            0,
            0,
            0
          ],
          "away": [
            0,
            0,
            8,
            0,
            0,
            1,
            0,
            0
          ]
        }
      },
      {
        "date": "09.09.26",
        "home": "Baltimore Orioles",
        "away": "Cleveland Guardians",
        "score": "5-9",
        "home_points": 5,
        "away_points": 9,
        "total_points": 14,
        "home_won": false,
        "innings": null
      },
      {
        "date": "07.09.26",
        "home": "Baltimore Orioles",
        "away": "Cleveland Guardians",
        "score": "6-4",
        "home_points": 6,
        "away_points": 4,
        "total_points": 10,
        "home_won": true,
        "innings": null
      },
      {
        "date": "06.09.26",
        "home": "Baltimore Orioles",
        "away": "Boston Red Sox",
        "score": "1-3",
        "home_points": 1,
        "away_points": 3,
        "total_points": 4,
        "home_won": false,
        "innings": null
      },
      {
        "date": "06.09.26",
        "home": "Baltimore Orioles",
        "away": "Boston Red Sox",
        "score": "0-5",
        "home_points": 0,
        "away_points": 5,
        "total_points": 5,
        "home_won": false,
        "innings": null
      },
      {
        "date": "05.09.26",
        "home": "Baltimore Orioles",
        "away": "Boston Red Sox",
        "score": "0-1",
        "home_points": 0,
        "away_points": 1,
        "total_points": 1,
        "home_won": false,
        "innings": null
      }
    ]
  },
  "head_to_head": {
    "last_10_matches": [
      {
        "date": "15.09.26",
        "home": "New York Mets",
        "away": "Baltimore Orioles",
        "score": "1-2",
        "home_points": 1,
        "away_points": 2,
        "total_points": 3,
        "home_won": false,
        "innings": {
          "home": [
            0,
            1,
            0,
            0,
            0,
            0,
            0,
            1,
            0
          ],
          "away": [
            0,
            0,
            0,
            1,
            0,
            0,
            0,
            0,
            0
          ]
        }
      },
      {
        "date": "11.07.25",
        "home": "Baltimore Orioles",
        "away": "New York Mets",
        "score": "7-3",
        "home_points": 7,
        "away_points": 3,
        "total_points": 10,
        "home_won": true,
        "innings": {
          "home": [
            2,
            0,
            0,
            1,
            0,
            0,
            0,
            0,
            0
          ],
          "away": [
            0,
            3,
            0,
            0,
            2,
            2,
            0,
            0
          ]
        }
      },
      {
        "date": "10.07.25",
        "home": "Baltimore Orioles",
        "away": "New York Mets",
        "score": "3-1",
        "home_points": 3,
        "away_points": 1,
        "total_points": 4,
        "home_won": true,
        "innings": {
          "home": [
            0,
            0,
            0,
            0,
            1,
            0,
            0,
            0,
            0
          ],
          "away": [
            0,
            0,
            0,
            0,
            0,
            0,
            0,
            3
          ]
        }
      },
      {
        "date": "09.07.25",
        "home": "Baltimore Orioles",
        "away": "New York Mets",
        "score": "6-7",
        "home_points": 6,
        "away_points": 7,
        "total_points": 13,
        "home_won": false,
        "innings": {
          "home": [
            0,
            0,
            0,
            0,
            0,
            2,
            0,
            4,
            0
          ],
          "away": [
            0,
            0,
            1,
            0,
            0,
            4,
            1,
            0,
            0
          ]
        }
      },
      {
        "date": "21.08.24",
        "home": "New York Mets",
        "away": "Baltimore Orioles",
        "score": "4-3",
        "home_points": 4,
        "away_points": 3,
        "total_points": 7,
        "home_won": true,
        "innings": {
          "home": [
            0,
            0,
            0,
            0,
            0,
            2,
            0,
            1,
            0
          ],
          "away": [
            0,
            0,
            1,
            0,
            1,
            0,
            1,
            0,
            1
          ]
        }
      },
      {
        "date": "21.08.24",
        "home": "New York Mets",
        "away": "Baltimore Orioles",
        "score": "5-9",
        "home_points": 5,
        "away_points": 9,
        "total_points": 14,
        "home_won": false,
        "innings": null
      },
      {
        "date": "20.08.24",
        "home": "New York Mets",
        "away": "Baltimore Orioles",
        "score": "4-3",
        "home_points": 4,
        "away_points": 3,
        "total_points": 7,
        "home_won": true,
        "innings": null
      },
      {
        "date": "06.08.23",
        "home": "Baltimore Orioles",
        "away": "New York Mets",
        "score": "2-0",
        "home_points": 2,
        "away_points": 0,
        "total_points": 2,
        "home_won": true,
        "innings": null
      },
      {
        "date": "06.08.23",
        "home": "Baltimore Orioles",
        "away": "New York Mets",
        "score": "7-3",
        "home_points": 7,
        "away_points": 3,
        "total_points": 10,
        "home_won": true,
        "innings": null
      },
      {
        "date": "05.08.23",
        "home": "Baltimore Orioles",
        "away": "New York Mets",
        "score": "10-3",
        "home_points": 10,
        "away_points": 3,
        "total_points": 13,
        "home_won": true,
        "innings": null
      }
    ]
  },
  "odds": {
    "match_winner": {
      "home": null,
      "away": null,
      "vig_pct": null
    }
  },
  "analysis": {
    "expected_runs": {
      "team_1": 5.62,
      "team_2": 4.46,
      "total": 10.08
    },
    "win_probability": {
      "team_1": 57,
      "team_2": 43
    },
    "form": {
      "team_1": {
        "played": 10,
        "wins": 6,
        "losses": 4,
        "win_rate": 0.6,
        "avg_rf": 6.7,
        "avg_ra": 5.2,
        "w_avg_rf": 6.43,
        "w_avg_ra": 4.97,
        "run_rate": 11.9,
        "blowout_rate": 0.2
      },
      "team_2": {
        "played": 10,
        "wins": 4,
        "losses": 6,
        "win_rate": 0.4,
        "avg_rf": 3.4,
        "avg_ra": 4.7,
        "w_avg_rf": 3.54,
        "w_avg_ra": 4.82,
        "run_rate": 8.1,
        "blowout_rate": 0.2
      }
    },
    "h2h_summary": {
      "considered": 10,
      "t1_wins": 3,
      "t2_wins": 7,
      "t1_win_rate": 0.3,
      "avg_total": 8.3
    },
    "confidence": 70,
    "winner": {
      "team": "New York Mets",
      "probability": 57,
      "margin_runs": 1.17,
      "opponent": "Baltimore Orioles",
      "opponent_probability": 43
    },
    "total_runs": {
      "projected_total": 10.08,
      "team_1_proj": 5.62,
      "team_2_proj": 4.46,
      "market": null
    },
    "first_five": {
      "team_1": 3.42,
      "team_2": 2.54,
      "total": 5.96,
      "source": "projected_from_form"
    },
    "inning_scores": null,
    "inning_prediction": {
      "home": [
        0.75,
        1.12,
        0.56,
        0.8,
        0.19,
        0.96,
        0.08,
        0.91,
        0.24
      ],
      "away": [
        0.61,
        0.11,
        0.38,
        1.11,
        0.33,
        0.89,
        0.13,
        0.45,
        0.45
      ],
      "per_inning_total": [
        1.36,
        1.23,
        0.94,
        1.91,
        0.52,
        1.85,
        0.21,
        1.36,
        0.69
      ],
      "first_five": {
        "home": 3.42,
        "away": 2.54,
        "total": 5.96
      },
      "source": "form",
      "t1_samples": 5,
      "t2_samples": 5,
      "t1_fractions": {
        "i1": 0.133,
        "i2": 0.2,
        "i3": 0.1,
        "i4": 0.143,
        "i5": 0.033,
        "i6": 0.171,
        "i7": 0.014,
        "i8": 0.162,
        "i9": 0.043
      },
      "t2_fractions": {
        "i1": 0.137,
        "i2": 0.025,
        "i3": 0.086,
        "i4": 0.25,
        "i5": 0.075,
        "i6": 0.199,
        "i7": 0.029,
        "i8": 0.1,
        "i9": 0.1
      }
    },
    "predictions": {
      "safe": null,
      "high_risk": {
        "market": "moneyline (underdog)",
        "pick": "Baltimore Orioles +ML",
        "team": "Baltimore Orioles",
        "win_prob": 43,
        "confidence": 70,
        "reason": "Baltimore Orioles has a live shot (43%) at a price the market may shade."
      }
    },
    "model_version": "v1-2026-06-baseball"
  },
  "model": {
    "win_probability": {
      "team_1": 57,
      "team_2": 43
    },
    "prediction_quality": "medium",
    "expected_runs": {
      "team_1": 5.62,
      "team_2": 4.46,
      "total": 10.08
    },
    "predicted_winner": "New York Mets",
    "model_version": "v1-2026-06-baseball"
  }
}

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