Baseball · MLB · Usa
Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays
Tuesday, 22 September 2026
Upcoming. The scheduled start is still ahead. Match status has not been confirmed live.Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays in MLB (Baseball) on Tuesday, 22 September 2026. Model prediction: Baltimore Orioles 43% vs Toronto Blue Jays 57%. See the head-to-head record, recent form and odds. Predictions and stats update daily.
Usa • MLB
Baltimore Oriolesvs
Toronto Blue Jays22 Sept • 01:35
Upcoming. The scheduled start is still ahead. Match status has not been confirmed live.
Predicted Winner
Toronto Blue Jays
57%to win
by ~1.1 runs vs Baltimore Ori…
Projected Total
8.67runs
3.79 – 4.88
no market line
First 5 (F5)
5.3runs
2.17 – 3.13
model projection
Inning Line Score
projected| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Orioles | 0.5 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Toronto Blue Jays | 0.1 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 |
| Tot | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 |
from last 5+5 games
Baltimore Orioles
Last 10: 4–6 (40%)
RPG: 3.4 — Allowed: 4.7 — Run env: 8.1
Toronto Blue Jays
Last 10: 5–5 (50%)
RPG: 4.7 — Allowed: 3.8 — Run env: 8.5
Baltimore Orioles Form
Baltimore Orioles
W0d
L2d
L3d
W3d
W5d
L6d
W8d
L9d
L9d
L10d
By inning:0-01-00-00-10-00-00-01-00-0
By inning:0-00-10-00-01-30-00-00-40-—
By inning:0-20-00-31-00-00-12-10-00-—
By inning:1-05-00-00-10-00-11-00-00-2
By inning:2-00-00-80-00-03-10-00-00-—
Toronto Blue Jays Form
Toronto Blue Jays
L0d
W2d
W3d
L3d
L6d
W6d
L7d
L9d
W9d
W10d
By inning:0-20-00-00-00-00-04-31-01-0
By inning:0-00-10-00-01-30-00-00-40-—
By inning:0-20-00-31-00-00-12-10-00-—
By inning:1-05-00-00-10-00-11-00-00-2
By inning:0-00-00-10-10-00-00-00-00-—
Head-to-Head
Last 10
By inning:0-00-10-00-01-30-00-00-40-—
By inning:0-20-00-31-00-00-12-10-00-—
By inning:1-05-00-00-10-00-11-00-00-2
By inning:0-00-00-00-04-00-50-00-10-—
By inning:0-01-10-40-00-12-01-00-00-—
Head-to-head summary
10 meetings — Baltimore Orioles 4 / Toronto Blue Jays 6. Average total: 10.5.
Model output
{
"expected_runs": {
"team_1": 3.79,
"team_2": 4.88,
"total": 8.67
},
"win_probability": {
"team_1": 43,
"team_2": 57
},
"form": {
"team_1": {
"played": 10,
"wins": 4,
"losses": 6,
"win_rate": 0.4,
"avg_rf": 3.4,
"avg_ra": 4.7,
"w_avg_rf": 3.54,
"w_avg_ra": 4.82,
"run_rate": 8.1,
"blowout_rate": 0.2
},
"team_2": {
"played": 10,
"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_rate": 0.5,
"avg_rf": 4.7,
"avg_ra": 3.8,
"w_avg_rf": 4.75,
"w_avg_ra": 3.83,
"run_rate": 8.5,
"blowout_rate": 0.3
}
},
"h2h_summary": {
"considered": 10,
"t1_wins": 4,
"t2_wins": 6,
"t1_win_rate": 0.4,
"avg_total": 10.5
},
"confidence": 80,
"winner": {
"team": "Toronto Blue Jays",
"probability": 57,
"margin_runs": 1.1,
"opponent": "Baltimore Orioles",
"opponent_probability": 43
},
"total_runs": {
"projected_total": 8.67,
"team_1_proj": 3.79,
"team_2_proj": 4.88,
"market": null
},
"first_five": {
"team_1": 2.17,
"team_2": 3.13,
"total": 5.3,
"source": "projected_from_form"
},
"inning_scores": null,
"inning_prediction": {
"home": [
0.52,
0.09,
0.33,
0.95,
0.28,
0.75,
0.11,
0.38,
0.38
],
"away": [
0.14,
0.7,
0.49,
0.82,
0.98,
0,
1.44,
0.16,
0.16
],
"per_inning_total": [
0.66,
0.79,
0.82,
1.77,
1.26,
0.75,
1.55,
0.54,
0.54
],
"first_five": {
"home": 2.17,
"away": 3.13,
"total": 5.3
},
"source": "form",
"t1_samples": 5,
"t2_samples": 5,
"t1_fractions": {
"i1": 0.137,
"i2": 0.025,
"i3": 0.086,
"i4": 0.25,
"i5": 0.075,
"i6": 0.199,
"i7": 0.029,
"i8": 0.1,
"i9": 0.1
},
"t2_fractions": {
"i1": 0.029,
"i2": 0.143,
"i3": 0.1,
"i4": 0.167,
"i5": 0.2,
"i6": 0,
"i7": 0.295,
"i8": 0.033,
"i9": 0.033
}
},
"predictions": {
"safe": null,
"high_risk": {
"market": "moneyline (underdog)",
"pick": "Baltimore Orioles +ML",
"team": "Baltimore Orioles",
"win_prob": 43,
"confidence": 80,
"reason": "Baltimore Orioles has a live shot (43%) at a price the market may shade."
}
},
"model_version": "v1-2026-06-baseball"
}Full match data
{
"sport": "baseball",
"league": "MLB",
"country": "Usa",
"match": "Baltimore Orioles vs Toronto Blue Jays",
"date": "2026-09-22",
"time": "01:35",
"status": null,
"score": null,
"innings": null,
"match_stats": null,
"team_1": {
"name": "Baltimore Orioles",
"last_10_matches": [
{
"date": "15.09.26",
"home": "New York Mets",
"away": "Baltimore Orioles",
"score": "1-2",
"home_points": 1,
"away_points": 2,
"total_points": 3,
"home_won": false,
"innings": {
"home": [
0,
1,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
1,
0
],
"away": [
0,
0,
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1,
0,
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0,
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]
}
},
{
"date": "13.09.26",
"home": "Toronto Blue Jays",
"away": "Baltimore Orioles",
"score": "8-1",
"home_points": 8,
"away_points": 1,
"total_points": 9,
"home_won": true,
"innings": {
"home": [
0,
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],
"away": [
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]
}
},
{
"date": "12.09.26",
"home": "Toronto Blue Jays",
"away": "Baltimore Orioles",
"score": "7-3",
"home_points": 7,
"away_points": 3,
"total_points": 10,
"home_won": true,
"innings": {
"home": [
0,
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],
"away": [
2,
0,
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]
}
},
{
"date": "12.09.26",
"home": "Toronto Blue Jays",
"away": "Baltimore Orioles",
"score": "4-7",
"home_points": 4,
"away_points": 7,
"total_points": 11,
"home_won": false,
"innings": {
"home": [
1,
5,
0,
0,
0,
0,
1,
0,
0
],
"away": [
0,
0,
0,
1,
0,
1,
0,
0,
2
]
}
},
{
"date": "10.09.26",
"home": "Baltimore Orioles",
"away": "Cleveland Guardians",
"score": "9-5",
"home_points": 9,
"away_points": 5,
"total_points": 14,
"home_won": true,
"innings": {
"home": [
2,
0,
0,
0,
0,
3,
0,
0,
0
],
"away": [
0,
0,
8,
0,
0,
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0,
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]
}
},
{
"date": "09.09.26",
"home": "Baltimore Orioles",
"away": "Cleveland Guardians",
"score": "5-9",
"home_points": 5,
"away_points": 9,
"total_points": 14,
"home_won": false,
"innings": null
},
{
"date": "07.09.26",
"home": "Baltimore Orioles",
"away": "Cleveland Guardians",
"score": "6-4",
"home_points": 6,
"away_points": 4,
"total_points": 10,
"home_won": true,
"innings": null
},
{
"date": "06.09.26",
"home": "Baltimore Orioles",
"away": "Boston Red Sox",
"score": "1-3",
"home_points": 1,
"away_points": 3,
"total_points": 4,
"home_won": false,
"innings": null
},
{
"date": "06.09.26",
"home": "Baltimore Orioles",
"away": "Boston Red Sox",
"score": "0-5",
"home_points": 0,
"away_points": 5,
"total_points": 5,
"home_won": false,
"innings": null
},
{
"date": "05.09.26",
"home": "Baltimore Orioles",
"away": "Boston Red Sox",
"score": "0-1",
"home_points": 0,
"away_points": 1,
"total_points": 1,
"home_won": false,
"innings": null
}
]
},
"team_2": {
"name": "Toronto Blue Jays",
"last_10_matches": [
{
"date": "15.09.26",
"home": "Toronto Blue Jays",
"away": "Detroit Tigers",
"score": "5-6",
"home_points": 5,
"away_points": 6,
"total_points": 11,
"home_won": false,
"innings": {
"home": [
0,
0,
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1,
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],
"away": [
2,
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}
},
{
"date": "13.09.26",
"home": "Toronto Blue Jays",
"away": "Baltimore Orioles",
"score": "8-1",
"home_points": 8,
"away_points": 1,
"total_points": 9,
"home_won": true,
"innings": {
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],
"away": [
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},
{
"date": "12.09.26",
"home": "Toronto Blue Jays",
"away": "Baltimore Orioles",
"score": "7-3",
"home_points": 7,
"away_points": 3,
"total_points": 10,
"home_won": true,
"innings": {
"home": [
0,
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1,
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],
"away": [
2,
0,
3,
0,
0,
1,
1,
0
]
}
},
{
"date": "12.09.26",
"home": "Toronto Blue Jays",
"away": "Baltimore Orioles",
"score": "4-7",
"home_points": 4,
"away_points": 7,
"total_points": 11,
"home_won": false,
"innings": {
"home": [
1,
5,
0,
0,
0,
0,
1,
0,
0
],
"away": [
0,
0,
0,
1,
0,
1,
0,
0,
2
]
}
},
{
"date": "09.09.26",
"home": "Athletics",
"away": "Toronto Blue Jays",
"score": "2-0",
"home_points": 2,
"away_points": 0,
"total_points": 2,
"home_won": true,
"innings": {
"home": [
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
0
],
"away": [
0,
0,
1,
1,
0,
0,
0,
0
]
}
},
{
"date": "09.09.26",
"home": "Athletics",
"away": "Toronto Blue Jays",
"score": "2-4",
"home_points": 2,
"away_points": 4,
"total_points": 6,
"home_won": false,
"innings": null
},
{
"date": "08.09.26",
"home": "Athletics",
"away": "Toronto Blue Jays",
"score": "6-5",
"home_points": 6,
"away_points": 5,
"total_points": 11,
"home_won": true,
"innings": null
},
{
"date": "06.09.26",
"home": "Kansas City Royals",
"away": "Toronto Blue Jays",
"score": "6-1",
"home_points": 6,
"away_points": 1,
"total_points": 7,
"home_won": true,
"innings": null
},
{
"date": "06.09.26",
"home": "Kansas City Royals",
"away": "Toronto Blue Jays",
"score": "3-4",
"home_points": 3,
"away_points": 4,
"total_points": 7,
"home_won": false,
"innings": null
},
{
"date": "05.09.26",
"home": "Kansas City Royals",
"away": "Toronto Blue Jays",
"score": "2-9",
"home_points": 2,
"away_points": 9,
"total_points": 11,
"home_won": false,
"innings": null
}
]
},
"head_to_head": {
"last_10_matches": [
{
"date": "13.09.26",
"home": "Toronto Blue Jays",
"away": "Baltimore Orioles",
"score": "8-1",
"home_points": 8,
"away_points": 1,
"total_points": 9,
"home_won": true,
"innings": {
"home": [
0,
0,
0,
0,
1,
0,
0,
0,
0
],
"away": [
0,
1,
0,
0,
3,
0,
0,
4
]
}
},
{
"date": "12.09.26",
"home": "Toronto Blue Jays",
"away": "Baltimore Orioles",
"score": "7-3",
"home_points": 7,
"away_points": 3,
"total_points": 10,
"home_won": true,
"innings": {
"home": [
0,
0,
0,
1,
0,
0,
2,
0,
0
],
"away": [
2,
0,
3,
0,
0,
1,
1,
0
]
}
},
{
"date": "12.09.26",
"home": "Toronto Blue Jays",
"away": "Baltimore Orioles",
"score": "4-7",
"home_points": 4,
"away_points": 7,
"total_points": 11,
"home_won": false,
"innings": {
"home": [
1,
5,
0,
0,
0,
0,
1,
0,
0
],
"away": [
0,
0,
0,
1,
0,
1,
0,
0,
2
]
}
},
{
"date": "07.06.26",
"home": "Toronto Blue Jays",
"away": "Baltimore Orioles",
"score": "6-4",
"home_points": 6,
"away_points": 4,
"total_points": 10,
"home_won": true,
"innings": {
"home": [
0,
0,
0,
0,
4,
0,
0,
0,
0
],
"away": [
0,
0,
0,
0,
0,
5,
0,
1
]
}
},
{
"date": "06.06.26",
"home": "Toronto Blue Jays",
"away": "Baltimore Orioles",
"score": "6-4",
"home_points": 6,
"away_points": 4,
"total_points": 10,
"home_won": true,
"innings": {
"home": [
0,
1,
0,
0,
0,
2,
1,
0,
0
],
"away": [
0,
1,
4,
0,
1,
0,
0,
0
]
}
},
{
"date": "06.06.26",
"home": "Toronto Blue Jays",
"away": "Baltimore Orioles",
"score": "3-13",
"home_points": 3,
"away_points": 13,
"total_points": 16,
"home_won": false,
"innings": null
},
{
"date": "31.05.26",
"home": "Baltimore Orioles",
"away": "Toronto Blue Jays",
"score": "9-5",
"home_points": 9,
"away_points": 5,
"total_points": 14,
"home_won": true,
"innings": null
},
{
"date": "30.05.26",
"home": "Baltimore Orioles",
"away": "Toronto Blue Jays",
"score": "6-5",
"home_points": 6,
"away_points": 5,
"total_points": 11,
"home_won": true,
"innings": null
},
{
"date": "30.05.26",
"home": "Baltimore Orioles",
"away": "Toronto Blue Jays",
"score": "5-6",
"home_points": 5,
"away_points": 6,
"total_points": 11,
"home_won": false,
"innings": null
},
{
"date": "29.05.26",
"home": "Baltimore Orioles",
"away": "Toronto Blue Jays",
"score": "1-2",
"home_points": 1,
"away_points": 2,
"total_points": 3,
"home_won": false,
"innings": null
}
]
},
"odds": {
"match_winner": {
"home": null,
"away": null,
"vig_pct": null
}
},
"analysis": {
"expected_runs": {
"team_1": 3.79,
"team_2": 4.88,
"total": 8.67
},
"win_probability": {
"team_1": 43,
"team_2": 57
},
"form": {
"team_1": {
"played": 10,
"wins": 4,
"losses": 6,
"win_rate": 0.4,
"avg_rf": 3.4,
"avg_ra": 4.7,
"w_avg_rf": 3.54,
"w_avg_ra": 4.82,
"run_rate": 8.1,
"blowout_rate": 0.2
},
"team_2": {
"played": 10,
"wins": 5,
"losses": 5,
"win_rate": 0.5,
"avg_rf": 4.7,
"avg_ra": 3.8,
"w_avg_rf": 4.75,
"w_avg_ra": 3.83,
"run_rate": 8.5,
"blowout_rate": 0.3
}
},
"h2h_summary": {
"considered": 10,
"t1_wins": 4,
"t2_wins": 6,
"t1_win_rate": 0.4,
"avg_total": 10.5
},
"confidence": 80,
"winner": {
"team": "Toronto Blue Jays",
"probability": 57,
"margin_runs": 1.1,
"opponent": "Baltimore Orioles",
"opponent_probability": 43
},
"total_runs": {
"projected_total": 8.67,
"team_1_proj": 3.79,
"team_2_proj": 4.88,
"market": null
},
"first_five": {
"team_1": 2.17,
"team_2": 3.13,
"total": 5.3,
"source": "projected_from_form"
},
"inning_scores": null,
"inning_prediction": {
"home": [
0.52,
0.09,
0.33,
0.95,
0.28,
0.75,
0.11,
0.38,
0.38
],
"away": [
0.14,
0.7,
0.49,
0.82,
0.98,
0,
1.44,
0.16,
0.16
],
"per_inning_total": [
0.66,
0.79,
0.82,
1.77,
1.26,
0.75,
1.55,
0.54,
0.54
],
"first_five": {
"home": 2.17,
"away": 3.13,
"total": 5.3
},
"source": "form",
"t1_samples": 5,
"t2_samples": 5,
"t1_fractions": {
"i1": 0.137,
"i2": 0.025,
"i3": 0.086,
"i4": 0.25,
"i5": 0.075,
"i6": 0.199,
"i7": 0.029,
"i8": 0.1,
"i9": 0.1
},
"t2_fractions": {
"i1": 0.029,
"i2": 0.143,
"i3": 0.1,
"i4": 0.167,
"i5": 0.2,
"i6": 0,
"i7": 0.295,
"i8": 0.033,
"i9": 0.033
}
},
"predictions": {
"safe": null,
"high_risk": {
"market": "moneyline (underdog)",
"pick": "Baltimore Orioles +ML",
"team": "Baltimore Orioles",
"win_prob": 43,
"confidence": 80,
"reason": "Baltimore Orioles has a live shot (43%) at a price the market may shade."
}
},
"model_version": "v1-2026-06-baseball"
},
"model": {
"win_probability": {
"team_1": 43,
"team_2": 57
},
"prediction_quality": "high",
"expected_runs": {
"team_1": 3.79,
"team_2": 4.88,
"total": 8.67
},
"predicted_winner": "Toronto Blue Jays",
"model_version": "v1-2026-06-baseball"
}
}Prediction alerts
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