Tennis · Guayaquil · Ecuador · clay
Ugo Carabelli C. vs Hernandez A.
Thursday, 29 October 2026
Upcoming. The scheduled start is still ahead. Match status has not been confirmed live.Match preview
The model gives Ugo Carabelli C. a 85% chance on clay. That rests on a ranking of No. 75 against No. 497. Bookmakers give Ugo Carabelli C. about 90% once their margin is removed, so the model is less confident than the market.
Key facts
- Hernandez A. has won 7 of the last 10 matches on clay.
- Hernandez A. has won 3 matches in a row.
- Recent form favours Hernandez A.: 7 wins from the last 10 matches, against 3 for Ugo Carabelli C.
Ecuador•Challenger•Guayaquil•clay
Thursday, 29 October 2026 at 23:30
Upcoming. The scheduled start is still ahead. Match status has not been confirmed live.
Model win probability
Ugo Carabelli C.Hernandez A.
85%
15%
Ugo Carabelli C. · all surfaces (latest first)
W2d
L19d
W21d
L31d
L35d
L58d
L69d
W70d
L77d
L86d
On clay6–4 · 60%· won 1+ set 10/10
W2d
L101d
L105d
W106d
W107d
L155d
W157d
L161d
W162d
W164d
Hernandez A. · all surfaces (latest first)
W1d
W3d
W4d
L9d
L10d
W11d
L12d
W13d
W14d
W16d
3-match win streak · all at Guayaquil — built in this tournament
On clay6–3 · 67%· won 1+ set 8/9
W1d
W3d
W4d
L9d
L10d
W11d
L12d
W13d
W14d
W16d
3-match win streak · all at Guayaquil — built in this tournament
Recent form
Ugo Carabelli C. · all surfacesHernandez A. · all surfaces
99
3/96/9
6/93/9
33%67%
2/94/9
5/91/9
4/98/9
3/94/9
7 / 1414 / 8
-7+6
Limited sample — Ugo Carabelli C. has 9 matches on record.
Limited sample — Hernandez A. has 9 matches on record.
On clay (this match's surface)
Ugo Carabelli C. · last 10 on clayHernandez A. · last 9 on clay
109
6/106/9
4/103/9
60%67%
3/104/9
0/101/9
10/108/9
8/104/9
17 / 1214 / 8
+5+6
First meeting — no head-to-head history between these players.
Market Odds
Vig 8.6%
Ugo Carabelli C.
1.02▼
Implied 90%
Edge -5.3%
Hernandez A.
9.50▲
Implied 10%
Edge +5.3%
Edge = model probability − market implied probability. Positive edge means the model thinks the side is undervalued.
Model Prediction
Ugo Carabelli C.
85%
Hernandez A.
15%
medium confidenceData 78%clay0 H2H used
◀ Ugo Carabelli C.Why the model leansHernandez A. ▶
Ranking
+0.79
Surface
+0.40
Form
-0.02
H2H
0.00
Model v2.3-2026-06
Ugo Carabelli C. Form
Ugo Carabelli C.
Hernandez A. Form
Hernandez A.
Head-to-Head
Last 10
No rows.
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