Tennis · Lima 2 · Peru · clay
Tobon M. vs Rocha H.
Tuesday, 10 November 2026
Past · result pending. The scheduled start has passed. A live or final status has not been confirmed.Match preview
The model gives Rocha H. a 63% chance on clay. That rests on a ranking of No. 111 against No. 422. Bookmakers give Rocha H. about 73% once their margin is removed, so the model is less confident than the market.
Peru•Challenger•Lima 2•clay
Tuesday, 10 November 2026 at 01:30
Past · result pending. The scheduled start has passed. A live or final status has not been confirmed.
Model win probability
Tobon M.Rocha H.
37%
63%
Tobon M. · all surfaces (latest first)
L8d
W9d
L13d
W15d
W16d
L18d
W18d
W20d
L32d
W33d
On clay6–4 · 60%· won 1+ set 7/10
L8d
W9d
L13d
W15d
W16d
L18d
W18d
W20d
L32d
W33d
Rocha H. · all surfaces (latest first)
L8d
L18d
W20d
W22d
L29d
W37d
W39d
W40d
W42d
2 straight losses · carried over from Costa do Sauipe, Lisbon — first match of this tournament
On clay4–6 · 40%· won 1+ set 5/10
L8d
L18d
W20d
W22d
L29d
L60d
W61d
W63d
L113d
L120d
2 straight losses · carried over from Costa do Sauipe, Lisbon — first match of this tournament
Recent form
Tobon M. · all surfacesRocha H. · all surfaces
109
6/106/9
4/103/9
60%67%
3/104/9
3/102/9
7/107/9
4/103/9
13 / 1113 / 8
+2+5
Limited sample — Rocha H. has 9 matches on record.
On clay (this match's surface)
Tobon M. · last 10 on clayRocha H. · last 10 on clay
1010
6/104/10
4/106/10
60%40%
3/103/10
3/105/10
7/105/10
4/102/10
13 / 119 / 13
+2-4
First meeting — no head-to-head history between these players.
Market Odds
Vig 9.4%
Tobon M.
3.40▼
Implied 27%
Edge +10.1%
Rocha H.
1.25
Implied 73%
Edge -10.1%
Edge = model probability − market implied probability. Positive edge means the model thinks the side is undervalued.
Model Prediction
Tobon M.
37%
Rocha H.
63%
low confidenceData 39%clay0 H2H used
◀ Tobon M.Why the model leansRocha H. ▶
Ranking
-0.56
Surface
+0.40
Form
+0.12
H2H
0.00
Model v2.3-2026-06
Tobon M. Form
Tobon M.
Rocha H. Form
Rocha H.
Head-to-Head
Last 10
No rows.
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