Tennis · Finals Indian Wells · World · hard
Sabalenka A. vs Muchova K.
Monday, 09 November 2026
Upcoming. The scheduled start is still ahead. Match status has not been confirmed live.Match preview
The model gives Sabalenka A. a 67% chance on hard courts. Bookmakers give Sabalenka A. about 61% once their margin is removed, so the model is more confident than the market.
Key facts
- Sabalenka A. has won 7 of the last 10 matches on hard courts.
- They last met on 10 Jan 2026, when Sabalenka A. won 2-0.
World•WTA•Finals Indian Wells•hard
Monday, 09 November 2026 at 23:00
Upcoming. The scheduled start is still ahead. Match status has not been confirmed live.
Model win probability
Sabalenka A.Muchova K.
67%
33%
Sabalenka A. · all surfaces (latest first)
L23d
L33d
W35d
L55d
W56d
W59d
W61d
W63d
W64d
W67d
2 straight losses · carried over from Wuhan, Beijing — first match of this tournament
On hard7–3 · 70%· won 1+ set 9/10
L23d
L33d
W35d
L55d
W56d
W59d
W61d
W63d
W64d
W67d
2 straight losses · carried over from Wuhan, Beijing — first match of this tournament
Muchova K. · all surfaces (latest first)
L22d
W23d
L29d
W31d
W33d
W35d
W40d
W42d
L63d
W65d
On hard6–4 · 60%· won 1+ set 6/10
L22d
W23d
L29d
W31d
W33d
W35d
L63d
W65d
W67d
L225d
Recent form
Sabalenka A. · all surfacesMuchova K. · all surfaces
1010
7/107/10
3/103/10
70%70%
6/104/10
1/103/10
9/107/10
3/103/10
16 / 714 / 9
+9+5
On hard (this match's surface)
Sabalenka A. · last 10 on hardMuchova K. · last 10 on hard
1010
7/106/10
3/104/10
70%60%
6/103/10
1/104/10
9/106/10
3/103/10
16 / 712 / 11
+9+1
Head-to-head
2/53/5
20
5 meetings · 3 went to a deciding set
Market Odds
Vig 6.2%
Sabalenka A.
1.55▼
Implied 61%
Edge +6.2%
Muchova K.
2.40▲
Implied 39%
Edge -6.2%
Edge = model probability − market implied probability. Positive edge means the model thinks the side is undervalued.
Model Prediction
Sabalenka A.
67%
Muchova K.
33%
medium confidenceData 83%hard4 H2H used
◀ Sabalenka A.Why the model leansMuchova K. ▶
Ranking
+0.53
Surface
+0.15
Form
+0.36
H2H
0.00
Model v2.3-2026-06
Sabalenka A. Form
Sabalenka A.
Muchova K. Form
Muchova K.
Prediction alerts
Know when the next pick goes live.
Email requires confirmation. Telegram requires pressing Start. Unsubscribe any time.
Explore more matches and live updates on the Tennis board.