Tennis · Curitiba · Brazil · clay
Jones F. vs Souza M.
Thursday, 29 October 2026
Upcoming. The scheduled start is still ahead. Match status has not been confirmed live.Match preview
The model gives Jones F. a 86% chance on clay. That rests on a ranking of No. 98 against No. 747. Bookmakers give Jones F. about 92% once their margin is removed, so the model is less confident than the market.
Brazil•Challenger•Curitiba•clay
Thursday, 29 October 2026 at 19:30
Upcoming. The scheduled start is still ahead. Match status has not been confirmed live.
Model win probability
Jones F.Souza M.
86%
14%
Jones F. · all surfaces (latest first)
W2d
L13d
W14d
W16d
L43d
W44d
L49d
W51d
L55d
W57d
On clay6–3 · 67%· won 1+ set 7/9
W2d
L13d
W14d
W16d
L43d
W44d
L49d
W51d
L89d
W90d
Souza M. · all surfaces (latest first)
W2d
L6d
W7d
W9d
L13d
W14d
W16d
L64d
L69d
W70d
On clay5–4 · 56%· won 1+ set 7/9
W2d
L6d
W7d
W9d
L13d
W14d
W16d
L99d
L105d
W106d
Recent form
Jones F. · all surfacesSouza M. · all surfaces
109
6/105/9
4/104/9
60%56%
4/103/9
3/103/9
7/106/9
3/103/9
13 / 1011 / 10
+3+1
Limited sample — Souza M. has 9 matches on record.
On clay (this match's surface)
Jones F. · last 9 on claySouza M. · last 9 on clay
99
6/95/9
3/94/9
67%56%
5/93/9
2/92/9
7/97/9
2/94/9
13 / 712 / 10
+6+2
First meeting — no head-to-head history between these players.
Market Odds
Vig 8.1%
Jones F.
1.01
Implied 92%
Edge -5.6%
Souza M.
11.00
Implied 8%
Edge +5.6%
Edge = model probability − market implied probability. Positive edge means the model thinks the side is undervalued.
Model Prediction
Jones F.
86%
Souza M.
14%
medium confidenceData 72%clay0 H2H used
◀ Jones F.Why the model leansSouza M. ▶
Ranking
+0.85
Surface
+0.09
Form
+0.13
H2H
0.00
Model v2.3-2026-06
Jones F. Form
Jones F.
Souza M. Form
Souza M.
Head-to-Head
Last 10
No rows.
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