Tennis · Finals Indian Wells · World · hard
Gauff C. vs Pegula J.
Monday, 09 November 2026
Upcoming. The scheduled start is still ahead. Match status has not been confirmed live.Match preview
The model gives Gauff C. a 58% chance on hard courts. Bookmakers give Gauff C. about 56% once their margin is removed, close to the model's view.
Key facts
- Gauff C. has won 8 of the last 10 matches on hard courts.
- Pegula J. has won 7 of the last 10 matches on hard courts.
- They last met on 24 Aug 2026, when Gauff C. won 2-0.
World•WTA•Finals Indian Wells•hard
Monday, 09 November 2026 at 00:30
Upcoming. The scheduled start is still ahead. Match status has not been confirmed live.
Model win probability
Gauff C.Pegula J.
58%
42%
Gauff C. · all surfaces (latest first)
L30d
W32d
W34d
L56d
W58d
W59d
W62d
W63d
W65d
W74d
On hard8–2 · 80%· won 1+ set 9/10
L30d
W32d
W34d
L56d
W58d
W59d
W62d
W63d
W65d
W74d
Pegula J. · all surfaces (latest first)
L23d
L56d
W58d
W60d
W63d
W65d
W68d
L74d
W76d
W78d
2 straight losses · carried over from Wuhan, US Open — first match of this tournament
On hard7–3 · 70%· won 1+ set 8/10
L23d
L56d
W58d
W60d
W63d
W65d
W68d
L74d
W76d
W78d
2 straight losses · carried over from Wuhan, US Open — first match of this tournament
Recent form
Gauff C. · all surfacesPegula J. · all surfaces
1010
8/107/10
2/103/10
80%70%
6/103/10
1/102/10
9/108/10
3/105/10
17 / 615 / 10
+11+5
On hard (this match's surface)
Gauff C. · last 10 on hardPegula J. · last 10 on hard
1010
8/107/10
2/103/10
80%70%
6/103/10
1/102/10
9/108/10
3/105/10
17 / 615 / 10
+11+5
Head-to-head
5/116/11
43
11 meetings · 4 went to a deciding set
Market Odds
Vig 6.4%
Gauff C.
1.67▼
Implied 56%
Edge +1.7%
Pegula J.
2.15▲
Implied 44%
Edge -1.7%
Edge = model probability − market implied probability. Positive edge means the model thinks the side is undervalued.
Model Prediction
Gauff C.
58%
Pegula J.
42%
high confidenceData 100%hard7 H2H used
◀ Gauff C.Why the model leansPegula J. ▶
Ranking
+0.09
Surface
0.00
Form
+0.24
H2H
-0.04
Model v2.3-2026-06
Gauff C. Form
Gauff C.
Pegula J. Form
Pegula J.
Head-to-Head
Last 10
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