Tennis · Vienna · Austria · hard
Basilashvili N. vs Alcaraz C.
Thursday, 29 October 2026
Upcoming. The scheduled start is still ahead. Match status has not been confirmed live.Match preview
The model gives Alcaraz C. a 81% chance on hard courts. That rests on a ranking of No. 3 against No. 95 and a 2-0 head-to-head lead. Bookmakers give Alcaraz C. about 83% once their margin is removed, close to the model's view.
Key facts
- Basilashvili N. has won 8 of the last 10 matches on hard courts.
- Alcaraz C. has won 8 of the last 10 matches on hard courts.
- They last met on 3 May 2022, when Alcaraz C. won 2-0.
Austria•ATP•Vienna•hard
Thursday, 29 October 2026 at 17:00
Upcoming. The scheduled start is still ahead. Match status has not been confirmed live.
Model win probability
Basilashvili N.Alcaraz C.
19%
81%
Basilashvili N. · all surfaces (latest first)
W1d
L4d
W5d
W6d
W8d
W10d
W11d
W12d
L22d
W23d
On hard8–1 · 89%· won 1+ set 9/9
W1d
L4d
W5d
W6d
W8d
W10d
W11d
W12d
L22d
W23d
Alcaraz C. · all surfaces (latest first)
W2d
L17d
W19d
W23d
W24d
W25d
W26d
W28d
W33d
L50d
On hard7–2 · 78%· won 1+ set 8/9
W2d
L17d
W19d
W23d
W24d
W25d
W26d
W28d
W33d
L50d
Recent form
Basilashvili N. · all surfacesAlcaraz C. · all surfaces
99
8/97/9
1/92/9
89%78%
6/94/9
0/91/9
9/98/9
3/94/9
17 / 416 / 8
+13+8
Limited sample — Basilashvili N. has 9 matches on record.
Limited sample — Alcaraz C. has 9 matches on record.
On hard (this match's surface)
Basilashvili N. · last 9 on hardAlcaraz C. · last 9 on hard
99
8/97/9
1/92/9
89%78%
6/94/9
0/91/9
9/98/9
3/94/9
17 / 416 / 8
+13+8
Head-to-head
0/22/2
02
2 meetings · 1 went to a deciding set
Market Odds
Vig 6.4%
Basilashvili N.
5.60▲
Implied 17%
Edge +2.2%
Alcaraz C.
1.13
Implied 83%
Edge -2.2%
Edge = model probability − market implied probability. Positive edge means the model thinks the side is undervalued.
Model Prediction
Basilashvili N.
19%
Alcaraz C.
81%
low confidenceData 90%hard0 H2H used
◀ Basilashvili N.Why the model leansAlcaraz C. ▶
Ranking
-1.45
Surface
0.00
Form
+0.20
H2H
0.00
Model v2.3-2026-06
Basilashvili N. Form
Basilashvili N.
Alcaraz C. Form
Alcaraz C.
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