Tennis · Monastir · Tunisia · hard
Alkaya M. vs Coulibaly E.
Tuesday, 10 November 2026
Upcoming. The scheduled start is still ahead. Match status has not been confirmed live.Match preview
The model gives Coulibaly E. a 66% chance on hard courts. That rests on 9 wins from the last 10 matches on hard courts to 6. Alkaya M. is the higher-ranked player (No. 319 against No. 342), so the model is leaning on form rather than ranking. Bookmakers give Coulibaly E. about 65% once their margin is removed, close to the model's view.
Key facts
- Coulibaly E. has won 5 matches in a row.
- They last met on 29 Oct 2025, when Alkaya M. won 2-1.
Tunisia•Challenger•Monastir•hard
Tuesday, 10 November 2026 at 15:00
Upcoming. The scheduled start is still ahead. Match status has not been confirmed live.
Model win probability
Alkaya M.Coulibaly E.
34%
66%
Alkaya M. · all surfaces (latest first)
L11d
W13d
W15d
L22d
L30d
W31d
W32d
W33d
W34d
L51d
On hard6–4 · 60%· won 1+ set 7/10
L11d
W13d
W15d
L22d
L30d
W31d
W32d
W33d
W34d
L61d
Coulibaly E. · all surfaces (latest first)
W16d
W17d
W18d
W19d
W20d
L26d
W27d
W30d
W31d
W32d
5-match win streak · carried over from M25 Luanda 2 — first match of this tournament
On hard8–0 · 100%· won 1+ set 8/8
W16d
W17d
W18d
W19d
W20d
L26d
W27d
W30d
W31d
W32d
5-match win streak · carried over from M25 Luanda 2 — first match of this tournament
Recent form
Alkaya M. · all surfacesCoulibaly E. · all surfaces
108
6/108/8
4/100/8
60%100%
4/107/8
3/100/8
7/108/8
3/101/8
13 / 1016 / 1
+3+15
Limited sample — Coulibaly E. has 8 matches on record.
On hard (this match's surface)
Alkaya M. · last 10 on hardCoulibaly E. · last 8 on hard
108
6/108/8
4/100/8
60%100%
4/107/8
3/100/8
7/108/8
3/101/8
13 / 1016 / 1
+3+15
Head-to-head
1/21/2
01
2 meetings · 1 went to a deciding set
Market Odds
Vig 8.9%
Alkaya M.
2.60▼
Implied 35%
Edge -1.3%
Coulibaly E.
1.42▲
Implied 65%
Edge +1.3%
Edge = model probability − market implied probability. Positive edge means the model thinks the side is undervalued.
Model Prediction
Alkaya M.
34%
Coulibaly E.
66%
high confidenceData 90%hard2 H2H used
◀ Alkaya M.Why the model leansCoulibaly E. ▶
Ranking
+0.03
Surface
0.00
Form
-0.47
H2H
0.00
Model v2.3-2026-06
Alkaya M. Form
Alkaya M.
Coulibaly E. Form
Coulibaly E.
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