Tennis · Finals Turin · World · hard
Alcaraz C. vs Tiafoe F.
Monday, 16 November 2026
Upcoming. The scheduled start is still ahead. Match status has not been confirmed live.Match preview
The model gives Alcaraz C. a 82% chance on hard courts. That rests on 9 wins from the last 9 matches on hard courts to 4. Bookmakers give Alcaraz C. about 85% once their margin is removed, close to the model's view.
Key facts
- Alcaraz C. has won 9 matches in a row.
- Recent form favours Alcaraz C.: 9 wins from the last 9 matches, against 4 for Tiafoe F.
- Tiafoe F. has lost 3 matches in a row.
- They last met on 8 Dec 2025, when Tiafoe F. won 2-1.
World•ATP•Finals Turin•hard
Monday, 16 November 2026 at 16:00
Upcoming. The scheduled start is still ahead. Match status has not been confirmed live.
Model win probability
Alcaraz C.Tiafoe F.
82%
18%
Alcaraz C. · all surfaces (latest first)
W5d
W6d
W7d
W9d
W12d
W13d
W14d
W15d
W17d
9-match win streak · carried over from Paris, Vienna — first match of this tournament
On hard9–0 · 100%· won 1+ set 9/9
W5d
W6d
W7d
W9d
W12d
W13d
W14d
W15d
W17d
9-match win streak · carried over from Paris, Vienna — first match of this tournament
Tiafoe F. · all surfaces (latest first)
L9d
L16d
L33d
W35d
L42d
W43d
L62d
W66d
W68d
W69d
3 straight losses · carried over from Paris, Vienna — first match of this tournament
On hard5–5 · 50%· won 1+ set 8/10
L9d
L16d
L33d
W35d
L42d
W43d
L62d
W66d
W68d
W69d
3 straight losses · carried over from Paris, Vienna — first match of this tournament
Recent form
Alcaraz C. · all surfacesTiafoe F. · all surfaces
910
9/95/10
0/95/10
100%50%
8/94/10
0/92/10
9/98/10
1/96/10
18 / 116 / 13
+17+3
Limited sample — Alcaraz C. has 9 matches on record.
On hard (this match's surface)
Alcaraz C. · last 9 on hardTiafoe F. · last 10 on hard
910
9/95/10
0/95/10
100%50%
8/94/10
0/92/10
9/98/10
1/96/10
18 / 116 / 13
+17+3
Head-to-head
2/53/5
02
5 meetings · 3 went to a deciding set
Market Odds
Vig 6.5%
Alcaraz C.
1.10▼
Implied 85%
Edge -3.3%
Tiafoe F.
6.40▲
Implied 15%
Edge +3.3%
Edge = model probability − market implied probability. Positive edge means the model thinks the side is undervalued.
Model Prediction
Alcaraz C.
82%
Tiafoe F.
18%
high confidenceData 95%hard1 H2H used
◀ Alcaraz C.Why the model leansTiafoe F. ▶
Ranking
+0.41
Surface
0.00
Form
+0.41
H2H
0.00
Model v2.3-2026-06
Alcaraz C. Form
Alcaraz C.
Tiafoe F. Form
Tiafoe F.
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