Tennis · Tokyo · Japan · hard
Alcaraz C. vs Arnaldi M.
Saturday, 03 October 2026
Played. Source reports: FINISHED.Final score · sets
Alcaraz C.2-0Arnaldi M.
- Set 1
- 7-6
- Set 2
- 6-1
Prediction and result
Before the match, the model gave Alcaraz C. a 84% chance on hard courts. That rests on a ranking of No. 3 against No. 37, 7 wins from the last 9 matches on hard courts to 2 and a 2-0 head-to-head lead. Alcaraz C. won 2-0 in sets, as the model expected.
Key facts before the match
- Recent form favours Alcaraz C.: 7 wins from the last 9 matches, against 3 for Arnaldi M.
- They last met on 9 Mar 2024, when Alcaraz C. won 2-1.
Japan•ATP•Tokyo•hard
Saturday, 03 October 2026 at 07:40
Played. Source reports: FINISHED.
Final score · sets
Alcaraz C.2-0Arnaldi M.
- Set 1
- 7-6
- Set 2
- 6-1
Model win probability
Alcaraz C.Arnaldi M.
84%
16%
Head-to-head
2/20/2
10
2 meetings · 2 went to a deciding set
Model Prediction
Alcaraz C.
84%
Arnaldi M.
16%
medium confidenceData 63%hard2 H2H used
◀ Alcaraz C.Why the model leansArnaldi M. ▶
Ranking
+1.06
Surface
-0.02
Form
+0.33
H2H
0.00
Model v2.3-2026-06
Alcaraz C. Form
Alcaraz C.
Arnaldi M. Form
Arnaldi M.
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