Svrcina D. vs Rodionov J.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 78%. Rodionov won a set in nine of ten completed hard matches from August 28 to November 6, including four of his five since October 18. He beat Coppejans 2-1 and Samuel and Travaglia 2-0 in his last three matches. Svrcina conceded a set in all nine of his current completed hard matches, including each of his six wins. This directly supports the one-set market. Main risk: Svrcina just beat Piros, Mpetshi Perricard and Gombos 2-1 and won their February 2025 H2H 2-0. The medium-quality match-win model favors him 55%. Rodionov lost 0-2 to Basilashvili, and five of his ten hard results predate October. Svrcina’s 0-0 Nishioka row was excluded. All stated current samples are independently dated within August 9–November 7, 2026, excluding stale, duplicate and incomplete rows. Current primary-source JSON confirms the exact future fixture, epoch kickoff and pre-match stage with no score fields. The exact current set-market price could not be verified.