Aarau vs Wil

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 80%. Only complete numeric scores dated 2026-08-08 or later were used. The exact market occurred in 19/20 dated form observations and 10/11 relevant home/away observations; these represent 19 unique completed fixtures. Current support: Aarau 3-1 away to Xamax on 2026-10-30; Aarau 1-2 at home against Etoile-Carouge on 2026-10-24; Wil 0-3 at home against Winterthur on 2026-11-01; Wil 2-2 at home against Rapperswil-Jona on 2026-10-23. The supplied goal model totals 3.21 goals as supporting context. The H2H lists 10 meetings, most recently 2026-08-31; 1 fall within this 90-day window. Any current meeting overlapping the form windows is not independent evidence. Main risk: Wil 1-0 away to Bulle on 2026-10-17. The finite sample, varied opponents and unconfirmed lineups limit the estimate; recent form is not a calibrated guarantee. Source model quality is high, with calibration unverified. No exact current decimal price verified; stale or absent 1X2 quotes do not verify this market, odds omitted and price value unconfirmed.