Dijon vs Red Star

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 74%. Only complete numeric scores dated 2026-08-08 or later were used. The exact market occurred in 17/20 dated form observations and 10/10 relevant home/away observations; these represent 20 unique completed fixtures. Current support: Dijon 3-1 away to Grenoble on 2026-10-30; Dijon 1-2 at home against Rodez on 2026-10-24; Red Star 1-4 at home against Nancy on 2026-11-02; Red Star 1-2 away to Montpellier on 2026-10-26. The supplied BTTS model gives 71%. The H2H lists 6 meetings, most recently 2024-04-19; 0 fall within this 90-day window. Older meetings receive little weight. Main risk: Red Star 0-1 at home against St Etienne on 2026-10-17; Red Star 1-0 at home against Metz on 2026-09-14. Red Star’s clean-sheet and goalless games are direct contrary evidence even though Dijon scored and conceded in all ten current observations. Source model quality is high, with calibration unverified. No exact current decimal price verified; stale or absent 1X2 quotes do not verify this market, odds omitted and price value unconfirmed.