Madura United vs Arema FC

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 77%. Only complete numeric scores dated 2026-08-08 or later were used. The exact market occurred in 17/19 dated form observations and 8/9 relevant home/away observations; these represent 19 unique completed fixtures. Current support: Madura United 1-3 away to Persebaya on 2026-10-26; Madura United 3-3 at home against FC Bhayangkara on 2026-10-16; Arema FC 4-0 away to RANS Nusantara on 2026-11-03; Arema FC 1-3 at home against Bali United on 2026-10-31. The supplied goal model totals 3.52 goals as supporting context. The H2H lists 10 meetings, most recently 2026-02-21; 0 fall within this 90-day window. Older meetings receive little weight. Main risk: Madura United 1-0 away to PSM Makassar on 2026-10-31; Madura United 1-0 at home against Persib Bandung on 2026-10-22. One Madura row predates the 90-day cutoff and is excluded. Recent Madura 1-0 results are direct risk; Arema’s cup and league opponents are not all comparable. Source model quality is high, with calibration unverified. No exact current decimal price verified; stale or absent 1X2 quotes do not verify this market, odds omitted and price value unconfirmed.