Orenburg vs Zenit

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 82%. Zenit are unbeaten in ten (7W-3D) with a 6-0 goal record in their last two away games and won seven of the last ten head-to-heads; the model puts the combined Zenit-win-or-draw chance at 85% and the win alone is priced at 1.37. Main risk: Orenburg won the most recent home meeting 2-1, so an outright home win is not negligible.