Struff J-L. vs Ruud C.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 76%. Struff won a set in all ten completed hard matches from October 21–November 4, winning eight, including 2-1 over Djokovic, Fils and Tirante and 2-0 over Borges and Gea. Ruud has six wins and eight set-winning results in nine current completed hard matches; the low-quality match-win model is close at 49% Struff, so it is not treated as a calibrated set probability. Main risk: Ruud comes off 2-0 wins over Jodar and Cerundolo J.M. and beat Struff 2-0 in 2023, a stale but contrary H2H. Struff needed three sets against Tirante yesterday, adding recovery and serve/tiebreak risk. Ruud 0-0 Auger-Aliassime is excluded; both players have strong current form. All stated current samples are independently dated within August 7–November 5, 2026, excluding stale, duplicate and incomplete rows. Current primary-source JSON confirms the exact future fixture, epoch kickoff and pre-match stage with no score fields. No current exact set-market decimal price verified; odds omitted and price value unconfirmed.