Real Sociedad vs Lyon

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 78%. The exact market landed in 18/20 completed games dated 2026-08-07 or later and 8/10 relevant home/away games; underlying scores and opponents were independently counted. Real Sociedad beat Lillestrom 6-0 and Levante 2-1 and most recently lost 1-2 at Ath Bilbao. Lyon beat Angers 2-0 and Nice 2-1 and lost 0-2 at PSG and 0-3 at Hoffenheim. The provided goal model totals 3.07 goals as supporting context. Main risk: Sociedad lost only 0-1 at home to Ath Bilbao earlier, and Lyon drew 0-0 at Paris FC. The five H2H are from 2013 or earlier, including two 1-0 results, and are not current evidence; recent European samples remain small. The model quality label is high, not a calibrated guarantee. No exact current decimal price verified; stale or absent 1X2 quotes do not price this derived market, odds omitted and price value unconfirmed.