Szombathely vs AEK Athens

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 75%. Szombathely are 9/10 current, beating Kormend 105-79 and Salon Vilpas 85-72. AEK Athens have 3 wins in 9 decisively scored current records and lost 84-95 at Vikos, 58-88 at Aris and 76-103 to Antwerp. Szombathely lost only 93-99 at Antwerp, while AEK beat Salon only 95-93. Main risk: Most Szombathely wins came against Hungarian domestic opponents, whereas AEK faced stronger Greek opposition. The two H2H are from 2021 and receive little weight. The September 13 AEK 82-82 friendly has no completion metadata and is excluded from the decisive sample. The corrected opponent win rate, smaller reliable sample, competition strength, travel and lineups reduce model 90%. No exact current decimal price verified; odds omitted and price value unconfirmed.