Paul T. vs Merida Aguilar D.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 79%. Paul won a set in 8/10 completed hard matches from October 12–November 3, winning seven. He beat Rune, Darderi and Rublev 2-0 and Moutet/Bonzi 2-1, while taking a set from Medvedev. Merida Aguilar has five wins and six set-winning results in ten completed hard matches, with 0-2 losses to Medvedev and Fritz. The high-quality model gives Paul 75% for the narrower match win. Main risk: Merida Aguilar beat Rublev 3-1 in September and Baez 2-0 on November 2. Paul lost 0-2 to Alcaraz and Fritz recently, so the estimate is reduced from a perfect-form assumption; no H2H is available. All stated recent samples are dated August 6–November 4, 2026 and counted independently for all surfaces and hard/clay, excluding incomplete scores. Hydrated current source confirms the exact future fixture. No current exact set-market decimal price verified; odds omitted and price value unconfirmed.