Ruzic A. vs Charaeva A.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 77%. Charaeva won a set in 9/10 completed hard matches from October 3–November 1, winning seven. Her last five are wins over Noha Akugue, Jacquemot, Bassols, Knutson and Chiesa; the 2-1 Jacquemot and 2-0 Kartal/Rybakina wins give stronger opposition evidence. Ruzic has four wins in nine completed hard matches; the 51% Charaeva match-win model is competitive rather than a basis for the set estimate. Main risk: Ruzic also won a set in all nine completed matches and beat Badosa 2-1, so a straight-set Ruzic win remains plausible. Charaeva lost 0-2 to Kubka on October 13. Ruzic won their sole 2023 H2H, which is stale; her October 22 1-0 row is excluded. All stated recent samples are dated August 6–November 4, 2026 and counted independently for all surfaces and hard/clay, excluding incomplete scores. Hydrated current source confirms the exact future fixture. No current exact set-market decimal price verified; odds omitted and price value unconfirmed.