Cardiff vs West Ham

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 76%. The exact total landed in 17/20 completed games dated 2026-08-06 or later and 6/8 relevant home/away games; both participants' underlying scores and opponents were checked. Cardiff drew 2-2 with Middlesbrough and beat Watford 5-1; West Ham lost 1-3 to West Brom and 2-3 to Southampton and beat Lincoln 6-0. Their league goals conceded are 20 and 18 after 13 games. The model expects 3.55 total goals as a supporting cross-check. Main risk: Cardiff beat Birmingham only 1-0 on 24 October and West Ham won only 1-0 at Swansea; Cardiff also lost 0-1 at Bolton. H2H is from 2019 or earlier and current relevant-venue support is weaker than overall form. No current exact-market decimal price verified; stale or absent 1X2 snapshots do not verify the total, odds omitted and price value unconfirmed.