Paide vs Kuressaare

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 68%. Paide are unbeaten in ten head-to-heads against Kuressaare (7W-3D) and have conceded once in their last four home games; the model rates the home win at 68% and market odds of 1.42 imply 70%. Main risk: two of the last three meetings were draws, so the win market is not automatic.