Derby vs Norwich

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 74%. The exact total landed in 16/20 recent completed games and 7/9 relevant home/away games, using scores and opponents within 90 days. Derby lost 1-4 at Millwall and QPR and drew 1-1 with Sheffield United and Wrexham; Norwich just beat Watford 3-2 and Charlton 3-1. Derby and Norwich have conceded 25 and 24 league goals in 13 matches. The model expects 3.21 total goals as a supporting cross-check. Main risk: Both Norwich and Derby have multiple recent 0-1 defeats, and the October 2025 H2H finished 1-0. A cautious game between inconsistent attacks remains plausible despite the latest higher scores. No current exact-market decimal price verified; stale 1X2 snapshots are not exact total prices, odds omitted and price value unconfirmed.