Nevezis vs Gargzdai

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 68%. Gargzdai are 8/10 current and 3/4 away; Nevezis are 1/10 and 0/4 at home. Gargzdai won 101-86 at this same venue on October 14 and the latest four H 2H overall. They also beat Taurage 102-82 and Lietkabelis 83-80, while Nevezis lost 76-80 and 72-73 to those opponents. Main risk: Several Gargzdai wins were narrow, including 81-78 and 83-80, and they lost 90-100 at Juventus. Nevezis recently beat Jurbarkas 93-69. The heuristic model is only 64%; this modest independent estimate rests on current scores, venues and recent H 2H, with substantial variance. No exact current decimal price verified; odds omitted and price value unconfirmed.