Brasilia vs Botafogo

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 73%. Brasilia are 7/9 current and 5/6 at home, including 91-73 over Paulistano,104-92 over Corinthians Paulista and 89-80 at Cruzeiro. Botafogo are 1/7 and 0/3 away, losing 56-83 to Tatui and 69-89 to Minas. Brasilia won the latest four H 2H, including 79-73 this March. Main risk: Brasilia just lost 61-100 at Minas and earlier lost 94-112 to Boca Juniors. Botafogo lost only 88-89 at Pato and beat Caxias 84-82. Opponent strength and unconfirmed rosters materially reduce model 83%. No exact current decimal price verified; odds omitted and price value unconfirmed.