Jacquet K. vs Machac T.

Published reasoning

Estimated probability: 80%. Machac won a set in all nine completed recent hard-court matches, including 2-0 over Baez and Landaluce in the latest two and set-winning losses to De Minaur, Khachanov and Draxl. He is ranked 71 versus 79, and the high-quality model gives 58% for match winner. Main risk: Jacquet beat Berrettini 2-0 and Darderi 2-0 and has five wins in nine completed matches. Machac has played on consecutive days; a missing-score Marozsan result is excluded, there is no H2H, and Jacquet has not played since 22 October. No current exact set-market decimal price verified; odds omitted and price value unconfirmed.